Winter Storm Warning for Friday, Feb. 25

Batten down the hatches--a real winter storm is coming to the Berkshires. You will awake to snow on Friday.

Today will be a seasonably pleasant day with breaks of sun and highs around freezing. Cloud cover will be more extensive this afternoon in advance of this sizable storm.

Meteorological experts over in Albany have upgraded our Watch to a Warning. Eight to 12 inches of snow is expected, with the heaviest amounts--1 to 2 inches per hour--coming down during the morning commute. Travel between 6 AM and 11 AM will be, at the very least, difficult.

NWS Albany thinks we'll get sleet.

NWS Albany still has the Berkshires in the sleet zone. Not only will sleet bring our snow totals down some (6-7 inches), but it will also make shoveling the snow less than ideal.

The only other slight change to the forecast that we've seen is the start time of the storm. It's now looking like it will be closer to 3 AM, which means snow will still be falling during the Friday night commute. If you have weekend travel plans and are hoping to wait out the storm before you drive anywhere, the roads should be slow but passable by 6 or 7 PM on Friday.

Here are some maps for your pre-storm enjoyment:

The Weather Channel, well-known for its hyping of storms, has eastern Berkshire County in the jackpot zone (12+).

Channel 13 coming in with a solid forecast.

Solid but nothing fancy here from Channel 6 in Albany. The pink/magenta/burgundy scheme is a curious choice.

Channel 22 has not changed their map from yesterday. Three possibilities: 1) They're lazy (unlikely). 2) They're going to update later today (more likely). 3) The model runs have been so consistent there's really no need to change (true).

Pivotal Weather's blend of models. This is our pick for its accuracy potential.

Winter Storm Watch for Friday (Feb. 25)

With yet another encouraging sign that we have a moderate to heavy snowfall heading our way for Friday, the National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch for our region. The finer details are being sorted out, but the prediction right now is for 6-12" of snow starting early Friday morning.

First up, though, is blustery day with temperatures gradually dropping from the balmy mid-50s this morning (Wednesday) to mid-teens by Thursday morning. Ushering in this 40 degree change in temperature will be a robust wind. We have a Wind Advisory in the Berkshires today, so don't be surprised to see some strong gusts approaching 40 mph.

Thursday looks like a typical calm-before-the-storm day. Mostly sunny. Highs around freezing. Diminishing winds. A good day to get outside and soak up the strengthening sun.

NWS Albany

Snow should start around 1 AM, and it will be coming down heavily during the morning commute. Friday might be a good remote work day, if you have the option. Travel should be difficult for most of the day on Friday. Snow will eventually wind down around 9 PM.

Based on the information we're seeing, we at GSD think most of us in the region will get 8-10 inches of snow. It will start off as light and fluffy snow but get denser as the temps move closer to freezing in the morning and midday on Friday. And there's still a chance sleet will mix in from I-90 and southward, which would make shoveling even harder.

If Friday were a school day, we would be very confident in full snow days for every student in Berkshire County. To that end, we should see some announcements from BCC, MCLA and Williams about a delayed start, a shift to remote classes for the day, or a key staff only day. 

An encouraging map for the Berkshires from Channel 22's Chris Bouzakis.

Just a heads up that the GSD Staff is headed to Boston this weekend for its annual Agricultural Festival. (This year's theme is "Squash!", and we're very excited to see all the presenters especially after last year's festival was cancelled due to the pandemic.) So, we'll do our best to get reliable snowfall totals for you during the storm.

We'll have more about the storm tomorrow: More maps, more fine-tuning of the timing, and an update on the sleet situation.

Friday Snow Storm

We're 72 hours away from what has the potential to be our biggest snow storm of the season. We're getting increasingly excited about this storm because--and this has been a rarity this season--the two main models meteorologists like to consult are very much in agreement.

The model snow forecasts we showed you yesterday are very similar to the ones that were produced this morning at 6 AM. There is still talk of sleet getting into the mix midday Friday, but this 18-hour storm should start as snow (due to the cold air firmly in place) and end as snow.

Right now, the expectation is that this storm will take place solely on Friday. Travel Thursday and Thursday night will be fine. On Friday, snow should start between 6 and 9 AM for most folks in the Berkshires and wrap up around midnight. There's plenty of liquid with this storm, so we are expecting 6+ inches for everyone in the county, with possibly of slight less measurable snow in South County due to a period of sleet.

Model runs have been very consistent for a few days now--further proof that 6+ inches is likely.

With temps in the mid and upper 20s on Saturday (and sunny), that could be the best day of the winter to get out and ski, sled, and frolic in the snow.

And this just in for those thirsty snow day people--we're seeing some indications for another 6+ storm potentially on Thursday, March 3rd. We'll keep you posted.

Early Signs of Spring Then Winter's Triumphant Return

Enjoy the inch or so of squall-induced snow we got on Saturday for a few hours longer because temps are headed to the 50s for the early part of the week and we will be snowless yet again.

But after some rain to deal with Tuesday night into Wednesday, the temperature will drop sharply, and there is an improving chance for an actual snow storm Thursday into Friday. If you trust the models--which you know you really shouldn't do at this point in the proceedings--then you need to get the snow boots, shovels and sleds ready because Berkshire County is expected to get 8-12" of fresh snow. 

Yes, it's vacation week for most students (less fun for the prognosticators at GSD), but that should not put a damper on your excitement about a genuine snow storm.

Unfortunately the news is not all rainbows and puppy dogs about the storm. Despite really excellent model agreement right now, there is a chance for a period of sleet and freezing rain to bring snow totals down and give us more of a winter soup than a clean snow storm. It will not be as bad as the icy mess we had on February 4, but given the orientation of this storm, ice could very well factor in.

The Euro model. Snow totals are by the end of the day on Friday.

The American model for the same time period.

Enjoy the warm weather and stay dry on Wednesday. We'll have daily updates about the end of week storm, including a better sense of the timing and snow/ice amounts.

Big Warm-Up But Winter Will Return

It's been a quiet several days, but weather will be back in the headlines for Thursday.

We will see a very powerful storm move through the area on Friday. Unfortunately, a lot of its power comes with warm air and high winds. We are expecting to get well into the 50s on Thursday with heavy rain expected throughout the day and into Friday morning. Any snow left on the ground will be gone by the time this system moves out.

With the heavy rain comes wind. Gusts are expected up to 40 mph for parts of the Berkshires. The high winds should be at their peak shortly after midnight.

After the storm moves out, we begin a mild period of 40s and 50s for about a week. There will be some wet weather next week as well (although not nearly as bad as it will be on Thursday). 

As we make our way closer to March, we are seeing long-range projects for the return to more seasonably cold air as well as the ingredients for a storm or two. We know some folks are ready to move on to spring, but multiple opportunities for big snow storms will be possible for the first two weeks of March. Mark our words.

An example of the kind of long-range map that shows a snow storm possibility. The blue is cold air and the yellow is warm air. This map, for early March, features a trough that could lead to a snow storm for New England.

Enjoy the warm-up and find the mud boots, but don't put that shovel away just yet. 

Winter Weather Advisory For Monday Night/Early Tuesday (Feb. 7/8)

A quick update on the afternoon and evening snow that we are already starting to see fall. Temps stayed slightly colder than expected at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. Wet snow has been falling off and on since noon.

It's going to be very hard to squeeze a delay out of this projection.

We should pick up an inch or less tonight--more snow on the eastern edge of Berkshire County--and, unfortunately, it looks like the snow will NOT be falling during the morning commute on Tuesday. We predict that most town's road crews will have ample time to treat and/or clear roads in time for the early bus runs. 

There's still a chance the snow lingers longer than expected or a superintendent or two plays it very safe, which could lead to a few delays. But it is our strong sense that a vast majority of students will have a full day of class tomorrow.

If we hear of any delays, we'll post them tomorrow morning as soon as we can.

Four Chances for Snow

We have an active weather week ahead but no big storms. We are, however, eyeing a bigger storm for Valentine's Day. It's much too far away to get excited about it, but it's worth at least a mention.

We should see some snow Monday night into Tuesday. A coastal storm will creep up toward us but ultimately go out to sea. Still, its precipitation shield should extend into Western Mass. We could see a delay or two on Tuesday if the timing is just right because there's not much liquid precipitation associated with this system.

Some shameless wishful thinking on our part: this map shows how much snow we could get if the Monday night storm over-performs. The down-the-middle map shows an inch or less for Berkshire County.

We also could see two Alberta clippers bring us more light snow later in the week. The first one is supposed to enter our region Wednesday night, and the second one will come in Friday night. The first one will likely stay too far to our north to bring us snow, but the second one seems more potent and could bring a few inches of the white stuff in time for Saturday morning.

The big change you will notice this week will be the temperature. We should get all the way to the upper 30s each day (Monday through Friday). Our measly snow pack is going to take a significant hit.

Hopefully, we'll get it all back and then some on Valentine's Day. The models are showing another big storm for that 13th/14th. We'll monitor it and get back to you if we start to see any favorable signs.

Snow/Ice Days for Friday, February 4

Almost all school districts in Berkshire County have the day off. Sustained icing expected for much of the morning. Here's the running list of cancellations (last update: Friday 6:05 AM):

SNOW DAY:

BART

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Hills

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Emma Miller

Emma Willard (NY)

Farmington River

Florida

Gabriel Abbott

Hoosac Valley

Hoosic Falls (NY) 

Lee

Lenox

MCLA

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU

DELAY

Williams College (Administration Offices at 10; Children's Center at 9:30)

Friday Storm--Thursday Midday Update

This storm is, simply put, being a pain in the backside. Perhaps it's the instant gratification world we live--we want a snow day and we want it now!--but would it really be that hard for Old Man Winter to give us a slam dunk, no bones about it, guaranteed snow day?

While we still think many schools will be called off tomorrow, we can not say with certainty that all students will have the day off, especially if you live in South County. We were much more confident about the chances for a clean sweep for snow days for all schools as of yesterday, but we're definitely hesitant to make that call today.

The reason for our waffling is the on-going issue with the frontal boundary. We're seeing too many varying reports about when the temperature will drop below freezing in Berkshire County. The models are showing rain, sleet, or snow at 6 AM tomorrow. They are still all over the place.

There are, however, two pieces of good news: 

1) NWS Albany has upgraded Northern Berkshire County to a Winter Storm Warning. This means meteorologists are confident that Pittsfield and towns north will get 3+ inches of snow plus an extended period of sleet and/or freezing rain.

2) If it's not already snowing by then, sleet and freezing rain are expected in the middle of the day. Some parts of the Berkshires will see over a quarter inch of sleet and ice, which is significant. Travel will be discouraged. It will not make sense for districts to have early releases as the release could be right in the middle of the sleet part of the storm.

A reminder that orange is freezing rain and purple is sleet. This map is for noon on Friday.

We'll update again tonight, but we're still holding the Confidence Meter at 75% for North County and are dropping it to 60% in South County due to the warm air holding on longer than we would like. 

If you have a favorite snow sweater, dance or ritual, tonight will be a good night to break it out.

Friday Storm--Wednesday PM Update

Keeping the Flake Followers updated:

*You might see your weather app drop its snow totals for Friday. And NWS Albany also has lowered our amounts in the County from 4-8" to 1-4". Initially, the GSD Staff is thinking: "Not great."

*Even though this might seem like a negative development, all it means is that more ice--sleet and freezing rain--is expected for the Berkshires, which is going to suppress snow totals. Lots of snow = bad. Lot's of ice = really bad.

*The forecast is still terrible for Friday morning and midday. This could be one of those storms that Superintendents cancel school based on the forecast and not on the conditions that they are experiencing between 5 and 6 AM on Friday. At least that's what we're hoping for.

*Temperature forecasts are what we're really studying right now. Some models usher sub-freezing air into the Berkshires by tomorrow evening. Others show us getting down to 32° by 7 AM on Friday. Whenever we hit that 32° mark, things will get ugly on the roadways in a hurry.

*But because there might be a stern Superintendent or two out there, we're going to hold the Confidence Meter at 75% for snow days. Especially in South County, there's a chance students have a full day of school or an early release.

*We're still as confident about snow days at this point, but we're not more confident--a subtle distinction but a distinction nonetheless. 

In the immortal words of Ham Porter: "You're killin' me, Smalls."

More weather fun tomorrow!

Winter Storm Watch -- Thursday Afternoon Through Friday

NWS Albany has come around on the storm and is now expecting snow-day-worthy snow totals.

Here are few updates about the impending storm and (hopefully) snow day:

*NWS Albany announced a Winter Storm Watch in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The Watch calls for a chance of 6+ inches of snow in addition to sleet starting at 4 PM Thursday and ending Friday afternoon.

*We've seen ice forecasts between .1 and .25 of sleet and up to .33 of freezing rain. Sleet will make for terrible driving conditions, and a third of an inch of freezing rain could really cause more serious problems. Never discount the danger of ice.

*The models are starting to come into agreement, and it looks like enough cold air will be in place for plenty of ice and snow for the entire county. To paraphrase chief meteorologist Bernie Rayno, in the battle between cold air and warm air, cold air always wins.

*This storm actually begins tonight. Rain should start after midnight, and then we're all just going to be watching the thermometer to see when the mercury will drop to 32℉. The sooner that happens, the better our chances for a snow day.

*We'll be surprised if many students have school on Friday. North County schools should have a three-day weekend. If the transition doesn't happen fast enough in the farthest reaches of South County, a district might decide to have school. But given the sleet/ice/snow forecast, districts may cancel out of an abundance of caution even if it's still raining between 5 and 6 AM.

This is a nasty-looking map for 6 AM on Friday. The orange is freezing rain; the purple is sleet. If it comes true, no one will want to be on the roads at that time.

Friday Storm: Rain to Ice to Snow

Friday's storm is no joke.

The European model is gradually moving the boundary between the cold air and the warm air further south, and the American model has the Berkshires in the snow bonanza zone, with over a foot for most folks in the county.

FYI: the American model (this one) hasn't been super reliable 3-4 days before a storm the last few times out. 

That number that the American model is producing (above) is probably overcooked, but we at GSD Headquarters think we'll still get half a foot, with potentially less down by the Connecticut border and more in the northwest corner of the County, which is the exact opposite of this past weekend's storm.

Because we continue to be right on that boundary, the threat for a period of several hours of sleet and/or freezing rain is very much in the mix for Thursday night into Friday. That's the sticking point for many meteorologists and is the reason we're seeing a lot of variance in expected snowfall totals. 

One nice thing about this storm--and a big difference between it and the last several storms--is that the track is essentially guaranteed. This storm is not going out to sea; liquid is going to come out of the sky one way or another. What its form will be is still uncertain.

If you really want a snow day Friday--and there are probably a few of you out there who would enjoy a three-day weekend--then you are rooting for the sleet-to-snow evolution of this storm, especially if that sleet starts to fall after midnight on Thursday. We have the Confidence Meter at 50%, but that's a soft number and one that will likely go higher as we get closer to Friday.

NWS Albany is slow-playing snow totals at this point. We think these totals will come up tomorrow, and we should see some kind of Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch by the end of the day.