Hot Start To 2021...(and by "hot" we mean "snowy")

Happy last day of 2020! Of course everything is going to magically return to normal at midnight tonight. 2021 is going to be the best!

We actually have good news on the snow front. Our somewhat dour prediction yesterday has brightened. We could see up to 6 inches of new snow for parts of the Berkshires by noon on Monday.

Friday's expected snow

The Friday night storm is minor, but there will be a period of all snow at its onset. Snow should start around 9 PM (south to north) and then change over to sleet and freezing rain by the morning. What is not clear is the timing of the changeover, which will impact how much snow piles up. NWS Albany is expecting 1-2 inches in South County where the changeover will occur sooner, and 2-3 inches in North County. Freezing rain and drizzle could extend to noon on Saturday.

We'll get a break from frozen precipitation for about 30 hours and then a coastal storm--a secondary low--will form and bring more snow to our area. The European model continues to show significant snowfall for the Berkshires--see below--while the North American model is now indicating some accumulation for the Berkshires but only 1-3 inches. 

We'll probably see these models meet in the middle somewhere, which means 3-5 inches by late morning Monday, with east-facing slopes in higher elevations getting the highest amounts. Cross country skiing should be able to resume on Monday.

A very assertive prediction from the European model for Sunday

Have a safe New Year's Eve celebration, and we'll have an update on both storms at some point on Friday morning.

Icy Night and Possible Weekend Snow

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires that will start this evening at 7 PM. The reason for the Advisory is the possibility for light icing to occur. It ends at 7 AM Thursday.

This is a relatively minor event and may amount to nothing. Some areas could pick up a dusting or half inch of snow as well as a 10th of an inch of ice. Travel could be difficult later this evening, but should not be impossible.

As for accumulating snow. As in get-out-the-snow-boots snow. As for wax-up-the-skis snow...we're still in a holding pattern. We might get a couple of inches Friday night into Saturday, and there is a small chance of a developing coastal storm for Sunday night. 

The European model is currently showing moderate snow (3 inches for the Friday night storm; 4-5 inches for the Sunday storm), but the North American model only shows an inch or two for Friday and a washout on Sunday. Unfortunately, the North American model seems to be more realistic as we simply won't have enough cold air in place for a big snow. We're not saying it's not possible but just unlikely.

The North American model is being stingy with the snow...

Certainly if the Euro model proves to be right, snow days and fully remote days are in the discussion for Monday.

Watch the ice tonight, and we'll watch for developments regarding the weekend storms.

High Wind Warning and a Flood Watch For Thursday Night/Friday

Old Saint Nick is going to have to make up time in other parts of the world on Thursday as he's going to find the sledding very tough in the Berkshires on the jolly fellow's Big Night.

NWS Albany has issued a Flood Watch and a High Wind Warning for Christmas Eve. Rain should not start until early afternoon, but it will pick up in intensity as we head into the overnight hours. Forecasters and models are still expecting 1-3 inches of rain by Friday afternoon which, coupled with melting snow, could create flooding conditions. Unusually--for this time of year, anyway--the temps will increase throughout Thursday night and will approach 60 degrees (!) by 8 AM Friday.

Perhaps an even bigger concern, though, is the wind. Things will really crank up Thursday evening with sustained winds over 20 mph and possible gusts between 50 and 60 mph. Power outages are a distinct possibility for the Berkshires overnight, which is less than ideal for us residents as well as the folks who have to attend to downed power lines.

The rain will taper to showers by midday, and then the temps will slowly start to fall. Because models are now expecting a slower decrease in the temperatures, there is less worry about flash freezing Friday afternoon. But that also means that we're less likely to get snow on the back end of the storm. So, by Saturday morning we'll be left with grassy yards that are half-soggy, half-frozen with maybe a patch of leftover snow here and there.

Fortunately, we will have two opportunities for snow next week to freshen up the place. The first will come Monday night with possibly a few inches in the evening and into Tuesday. The next opportunity will be toward the end of the week (Thursday/Friday). We're in an active period right now so the opportunities to get snow should keep coming.

Happy Holidays to everyone who reads GSD, and stay safe over the next few days!

Heavy Rain Storm For Thursday Then Cold

Sadly, our big snow from last Thursday will just about disappear by Christmas day as above average temps during the next three days and a soaking rain on Thursday will do major damage to our (short-lived) snow base.

Temps will be in the mid-30s the next few days until the rain arrives, spiking the thermometer toward 50 degrees on Thursday. And the rain will come down in buckets as we might see 2" of liquid in some parts of the Berkshires by noon on Friday. With all that melting snow, flooding will be an issue on Christmas day.

Sadly, these are measurements for expected rain on Thursday. If had cold air were in place for snow, we would see snow totals that would have rivaled last week's storm.

The one silver lining is that the rain is associated with a strong cold front, and on the back end of the storm, we could see an inch or two in the Berkshires and make it look like winter again. It's no guarantee, but it's the best we can offer for you at this point.

The mercury will be in a free fall on Friday. We'll start out in the 40s and by early Saturday morning we'll be in the teens. Saturday will be brisk with high temps in the mid 20s with maybe a stray flake or two making it all the way to the Berkshires from the Great Lakes.

Further out we are keeping tabs on a disturbance on the 29th that could generate a few inches of snow. if that one doesn't pan out, we still are expecting to see an active storm period in the first few weeks of January.

Get out the holiday galoshes for Thursday, and then you can return to your more normal winter footwear  for the weekend.

Winter Storm Wrap-up; What's Next?

For a storm that got in and out in less than 18 hours, it certainly did its thing "as advertised." We got 14" at the GSD Home Office, and snow reports from the around the county show a high of 23" in Lanesborough, 16.7" in Cheshire and 12" to 14" in Pittsfield and South County. 

At some point Wednesday night models had pushed good portions of the Berkshires into an 18-24" region, but some of those very heavy bands pushed off to the west. The Binghamton, NY area got absolutely pummeled with the airport there reporting an even 40" of snow. (If you want to see snow totals from the entire region, follow this link.)

As for days off from school, the one exciting development was that Pittsfield had to change from a fully remote day to a full snow day due to power outages. Hopefully those students found out early enough to enjoy a day out in the snow.

For the next snow opportunity, we might see a few nuisance snow opportunities starting on Sunday and continuing in the early part of the week. Then, temps warm up into the 40s. There is a forecast for precipitation on Christmas Eve but it's for rain. That rain will be out in front of a cold front, and when the cold front does come through, we just might see a conversion to ice and/or snow on Santa's big day. We'll definitely be focusing our energies on that rain/cold front in the next few days.

We also should report that a few outlets are forecasting an active early January period for storms. It's all connected monitoring of the Polar Vortex. The longer-range forecasters are very excited about that period and think the Northeast will be very stormy and snowy. 

Cancellations and a Dreaded New Category -- Remote Days

Here's a running list of school closings and remote days (that we know of). Current info and commentary about the storm is below:

UPDATED at 8:05 PM Dec. 16

Adams/Cheshire (Remote Day)

Berkshire Hills (CLOSED)

Berkshire Waldorf (CLOSED)

Childcare of the Berkshires (CLOSED)

Clarksburg (CLOSED)

Emma Miller (CLOSED)

Farmington River (CLOSED)

Florida (CLOSED)

Gabriel Abbott Memorial (CLOSED)

Hancock (CLOSED)

Lee (CLOSED

Lenox (CLOSED)

Mount Greylock Regional (Remote Day)

North Adams (Remote Day)

Pittsfield (Remote Day)

Richmond (CLOSED)

Southern Berkshire (CLOSED)

Southwest Vermont SU (Remote Day)

December Storm Midday Update

Despite GSD skepticism yesterday about how big this storm will end up being, local forecasters continue to raise our expected snow totals. Notably, NWS Albany thinks the entire county will get over a foot of snow, with some locations in the south getting closer to 18".

NWS Albany

One really strong signal that it's going to snow--and snow hard--is that it's 15 degrees outside with complete cloud cover as of 10 AM Wednesday. Any moisture that overrides that cold air will become snow. Because it's so cold, a lot of that liquid will evaporate initially, but then by about 7 or 8 PM, the snow will starting making it to the ground in the Berkshires.

NWS Albany storm starting times.

Just over a year ago we had a 36-hour event (in early December) that produced 16-24" in and around Berkshire County. While this storm will not last for 36 hours, it could certainly challenge those snow totals.

From Matt Noyes over in Boston.

One other aspect of this storm that we failed to mention in earlier posts--beware of the wind. We're supposed to see wind gusts well into the 30 mph range in the overnight hours. Should those winds continue into the morning hours, travel will be very unsafe for the commute.

Get the tall boots out--we're all going to need them.

Winter Storm Warning Is In Effect (Wednesday Night/Thursday)

The NWS Albany has announced a Winter Storm Warning for the Berkshires starting Wednesday afternoon. The recent runs of the models have come more into agreement and shifted the track of the storm slightly northward. Local meteorologists are now calling for the entire county to get around a foot of snow with slightly lower totals north of Pittsfield.

A Boston area forecast.

Despite the consensus of the models, we think the precipitation totals are slightly juiced and, because very cold air is in place, we are likely to end up in the 8-10" range with an inch or two more along the Connecticut border. We won't be surprised if some of the models ratchet snow totals back a notch or two tomorrow. Either way, snow lovers are still going to be pleased by the time the storm wraps up early Thursday afternoon.

NWS Albany's latest snow map.

Had we been operating under old school attendance rules, we would be feeling very confident at this point for widespread snow days on Thursday. With perfect timing, plenty of cold air, lots of moisture, as well as the early Winter Storm Warning declaration, this storm would be a no-brainer for county-wide day off. Alas, most students will not be sleeping in on Thursday, giving us reason number 143 why Zoom learning is "not ideal." 

WWLP checks ins. (Just a question: what is 8-12"+? Is that the same as 9-13"? 10-14"?)

We'll update again tomorrow whether or not there are additional developments, but it would be wise for everyone to take precautions for heavy snow Wednesday night and very slow travel conditions Thursday morning.

Model Disagreement

A pleasant, light snow fell for many hours today at the GSD office. Because of the temperatures above freezing, the snow mostly just stuck to the grass and trees and did not impact the day in a meaningful way.

With temperatures on the decline, black ice could be a concern tomorrow morning in the usual places.

Now all of our energy is focused on the big coastal storm. The good news is that plenty of cold air will be in place for snow. The typical snow-to-liquid ratio is 10:1 but for this storm forecasters are expecting 12 or 14:1 to rations. No matter how much snow we get, those higher ratios means we'll see a fluffy, light snow that should be relatively easy to shovel.

NWS-Albany's first crack at a snow map for Wednesday/Thursday.

The bad news is the models are all over the place. One North American model is predicting much lower precipitation amounts. Another is predicting a direct hit for the Berkshires (12-16"). The crowd-pleasing Euro has strong precipitation values but takes the track of the storm to our south. We've even checked in with the Canadian model and that one also keeps the storm slightly to our south.

Here's one North American Model...

...and here's the other. This is what happens when the models can't decide on the track.

So, what does this mean? 

We think that South County has a much higher chance of 6+ inches of snow. The NWS has already issued Winter Storm Watches for Litchfield (CT) and Duchess County (NY), and it's likely that Berkshire County will get a Watch at some point tomorrow.

Because there likely will be a strong cutoff line--where the cold air blocks the northward moving moisture--we could easily see a situation where Sheffield, Otis and Sandisfield see 10" and North Adams, Clarksburg, and Williamstown only get only 3". Pittsfield would split the middle. 

We are definitely trying to gather as much information as possible to help us better understand just how high that cut off line will be. If the line moves into southern Vermont, all of Berkshire County will be over 6 inches with 12 for towns closer to Connecticut. 

Hopefully by Tuesday night we will have more definitive information for you. The one aspect of the storm that is more certain at this point is the timing of the start of the snow: late Wednesday night.

Mid-Atlantic/New England Storm Update

If you've been dreaming of a white Christmas lately, you may be in luck. We have two shots at getting snow this week, one minor and one decidedly more significant.

The first opportunity for snow is throughout the day on Monday. A storm to the south will push into our area and lead to steady light snow throughout the day. Folks on southern Berkshire County stand to get more of the snow--possibly 2"--while those in central and northern parts of the county will only see an inch.

Then, all attention moves to a bigger coastal storm late Wednesday night. Right now travel on Wednesday should not be an issue. Accuweather is predicting the snow to start around midnight for the Berkshires, and it should come down--possibly heavy at times--through noon on Thursday. Travel on Thursday morning could be difficult.

The darker green is the forecast for heavy snow on Wednesday night and Thursday. The lighter green is for heavy precipitation.

Let's talk about best and worst case scenarios. (We'll let you decide which is the worst and which is the best.) One scenario is that the storm doesn't quite push far enough north and drifts underneath us out to see. In that situation, we could see 3-6" in South County and 1-3" for the rest of us. The other scenario is that the storm "bombs out" on the coast and pushes heavy frozen precipitation well into Western Mass and southern Vermont and New Hampshire. If that were to happen, South County is looking at 10-16" and 4-8" in North County.

Accuweather meteorologists are fully on board for a big storm.

Most of the weather experts we consult are very confident that it's going to snow hard. The exact track is still to be determined, but we the whole county should wake up to a winter wonderland on Thursday.

Coastal Storm With A Side (Note) of Gritters

A couple of tidbits we learned in the GSD Office this past week:

Fun fact: In the UK, a snow plow is called a "gritter." (In addition to pushing snow out of the way, the snow plow in some places also puts a gritty substance on the road for better traction. Thus, gritters makes perfect sense.)

Really fun fact: In Scotland and England--similar to the NORAD Santa Tracker--you can go to a map on a website and track what roads the gritters are on in real time. (Brilliant! We definitely have the technology to do this.)

Extraordinarily fun fact: The gritters in the UK have names! There's Salty, Snow Destroyer, Ice Queen and Sprinkles. Pretty standard fare. But there's also Gangsta Granny Gritty, Gritney Spears, Spready Mercury, and Gritter Thunberg. (Outstanding!)

However great these names are, we think we can do better. So, if you have a pun-tastic name for a Berkshire County plow, DM GSD at Twitter or Facebook and we'll post some of the best entries in the next few days.

Looming Storm

After the storm bust last weekend, it was nice to see a steady snowfall all through the day on Wednesday in the Berkshires. Up at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, we picked up 1.2 inches that, unfortunately, evaporated during the day today due to the milder temps.

The exciting news is that models and forecasters have identified a sizable storm for Wednesday night/Thursday early AM next week. We always say this a full six days before a storm, but it's way too early to get too amped about this just yet. 

The Euro is coming in white hot for next week's storm at this stage in the proceedings.

But...the ingredients are there for a big one. There's plenty of moisture. Cold air will be in place. And the storm should rapidly intensify on the coast. The big question, of course, will be the track of the storm. Right now the models are not in agreement--not a great sign--but the European models favors a much bigger storm for the Berkshires, as the graphic above indicates. 

Take this for what it's worth, but it's possible we could see a storm in the 5-10" range next Wednesday night.

All we have right now is hope. So let's lean into this one. Do your snow prayers and snow dances and let's kick off winter 2020-21 with a classic New England coastal storm.

Winter Weather Advisory: Snow for Saturday Afternoon

Well, everything was trending toward the Berkshires getting its first Winter Storm Warning of the season yesterday, but the models jogged the storm to the east today and we were downgraded to a mere Winter Weather Advisory. Fortunately, snow lovers, this storm won't be a total bust.

NWS Albany is forecasting 3-6" for the Berkshires with the bulk of the snow coming Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Higher elevations should get more snow than locations under 1500 feet. As the map below shows, east-facing slopes should see the most snow.

NWS Albany

When you wake up tomorrow, it should be raining, and then as we move toward midday, wet snow flakes will mix in before changing over to all snow in the afternoon. The snow could come down heavily for a stretch, which will make for slippery travel.

As the rain changes over to snow, we'll also see the winds start to whip up. It will be quite windy tomorrow evening as the storm pulls away. The precipitation should end well before midnight.

There's no great window tomorrow to get out for a walk, run, and/or tree purchase. If you don't mind wet snow and wind, it might be fun to get outside in the afternoon and throw a few snowballs around and build a snowperson. As long as there's enough of it, the snow will be great packing snow.

After this weekend, it looks dry for a stretch and then we're eyeing another disturbance for next Monday.

Winter Storm Watch For Saturday, December 5

This afternoon (Thursday), the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires. The Watch begins Saturday morning and expires Sunday morning.

The weather experts are now saying that phasing will occur--a low pressure system from the southern Plains meeting a trough dropping in from the Great Lakes--and a storm will strengthen as moves up the east coast.

Interior Maine, central and northern New Hampshire, and Vermont will be the big winners for this storm, but Berkshire County could see 4-7 inches (south to north). The snow will be wet and heavy especially early on as we will still be in the 30s during the day on Saturday.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany

Right now the worst of the storm looks like it will occur late morning and early afternoon on Saturday. So if you are planning to get your tree this weekend, you might want to get an earlier start to your day, and even then it will be wet out (rain mixing with snow).

This storm will be a strong one so that means that as it exits through the Gulf of Maine, winds will whip up considerably Saturday night and into Sunday. With heavy wet snow probably sticking to trees, more downed limbs than usual are expected which would of course lead to a greater chance for power outages. 

Bernie Rayno and the gang at Accuweather are fully on board for a big one.

Fortunately for Superintendents, this first real storm of the season will fall on the weekend. In the pre-Covid days, this storm would have made for a tough call due to the timing. But, as most schools are fully remote at the moment, had this storm fallen on a school day, students would have likely experienced their first remote-snow-day-but-not-a-snow-day. Yay technology.

If the models end up coming into more agreement about the track, we'll be upgraded from a Watch to a Warning at some point on Friday. Despite the potential for a Warning, the GSD staff does not think this will be that big of a storm. The warm air has us concerned, and that will keep snow totals in the 2-4 inch range, not 4-7.

Updates to follow on Friday.

We Might Have Found The Snow

Happy December, Fans of the Flake! One more month to go and we can wave 2020 a hearty farewell and bon voyage. (And don't let the door hit you on the rear end on the way out!)

It's a weekend event so it's not that exciting, but we might need shovels come Sunday. It's a complicated mess--it's always a hope and prayer when we need two systems to phase, as is the case with this storm--but we're starting to see some signs from the experts that a coastal storm could form and strengthen.

As one might expect, the models are not in agreement. The Euro gives us snow; the North American takes the precipitation out to sea. 

Here's what the Euro is showing us:

Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather

The snow totals for central New York definitely feel too high given the warm air we've had recently, but temps are on the decline and eventually we'll drop into the 20s by Sunday evening.

Be aware that we do not have much faith in a forecast of 3-5 inches for the Berkshires this weekend, but we wanted to get out in front of it and let you know the possibility exists. It wouldn't hurt to re-locate those shovels.