Big Weather Changes

The forward progress of Spring will be halted in its tracks today as a powerful storm sweeps into the northeast this evening.

Unfortunately, most of us will see heavy rain from this event. But if you live in the hill towns or southern Vermont, you have a shot at a delay or cancellation. Confidence is very low, however, that this storm will shorten the school day for folks in our immediate region. If anything, the heavy wind that will pick up this evening has a better chance of knocking out power and giving a district in North County a delay or early release. We do have a Wind Advisory in place for tonight, with 40 mph gusts possible by morning.

Not likely to shorten the day on Thursday.

If it snows at all in Berkshire County, it will happen Thursday in the morning as the cold air gets sucked in from the north, turning the rain into snow. Hill towns could see a quick blast of a few inches of snow. Southern Vermont towns in higher elevation spots could see up to 6". Parts of northern New York, New Hampshire, and Maine could end up with a foot of snow.

As the storm moves off the Atlantic coast, we will see steadily declining temperatures. Winter will be back this weekend with highs in the 20s and lows in the low teens. The weekend should be dry except for a stray flake or two on Friday.

Before you give up all hope, we have seen a few signs for a storm in the second week of March. We'll continue to monitor that situation as we learn more about.

Expect Snow on Tuesday

Happy President's Day (or Washington's Birthday if you work for the federal government)!

We picked up another 1/2 inch of snow early Sunday morning, and the run of nuisance storms continues on Tuesday. We are expecting at least an inch for all of Berkshire County, with some more northerly locations potentially seeing 3". This storm will NOT impact the morning commute--the snow should start around 11 AM--but the evening ride home from work could be messy as forecasters are expecting a changeover to sleet then all rain throughout the afternoon and early evening.

Nuisance snow.

As for the rest of the week, it will be a quiet one. We will see a return to normal winter temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the low 20s. Unfortunately, it will not last and we'll be right back up into the 40s for the weekend.

We are still keeping an eye on a more sizable storm for the week of the 24th, but the current outlook is for a big rain event. Winter is definitely on its proverbial downslope. Yes, March is known to provide excitement, but all the long-range models are showing above average temperatures for that month.

Thursday Storm Recap

Today's storm pretty much delivered. Most schools had at least a delay--Lee, Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills were notable exceptions--and we had a few cancellations to the north. We should have been more aggressive with our Confidence Meter, but the warm temperatures were holding us back.

It was a little surprising to see BCC and MCLA opt for the delay, but maybe they fell prey to the Once-Bitten-Twice-Shy Theorem as today's driving conditions in Berkshire County were generally much better than Monday's.

NWS Snow Reports for today's storm. They are consistent with the delays and snow days we say today.

With vacation week coming up, most of our staff will be off next week--in fact, a few have bolted already for warmer climes--but the diehards will be around the office and will report on any winter weather developments for those who do not follow the public school vacation schedule.

So what's next? First, it will be frigid tomorrow and tomorrow night. The temperature is slowly dropping as we speak. We'll see highs in the teens Friday, and then the thermometer will bottom out early Saturday morning in the negative single digits. We fear we've forgotten what real winter cold feels like, so bundle up and cover those extremities, including the tip of the nose. Fortunately, temps will moderate Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

As for precipitation, we could see some more slushiness on Tuesday morning but it will be minor. The rest of the week will be mild and dry.

Recently, most forecasters have been preparing to read Old Man Winter his final rites, but suddenly a few signals have popped up via the models to suggest the possibility of a New England storm in late February. The Old Man, it appears, might not be dead yet. Those of us still scuffling around in the GSD Office sure ain't holding our collective breath, but certainly we'll keep an eye on that time period.

With the reduction in staff, we'll be operating on a need-to-know basis for the next 10 days. Check in with our Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram for any quick updates.

Snow Days and Delays for Thursday, Feb. 13

Light snow continues to fall at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. Roads are snow-covered but passable. We will see intermittent snow and possibly some sleet mixing in for the next several hours before a taper to drizzle later this morning.

We do have several cancellations and delays today. Here they are:

SNOW DAY

BART
Emma Miller
Hoosac Valley (Adams-Cheshire)
Mohawk Trail
Southwest Vermont SU

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

BCC (classes at 9:30 or later start on time)
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Montessori
Central Berkshire
Child Care of the Berkshires (open; Pittsfield and North County transportation is delayed 2 hours)
Clarksburg
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
Hillcrest
Lenox
McCann
MLCA (opening at 10:30)
Mount Greylock (Williamstown-Lanesborough)
New Lebanon
North Adams
Pine Cobble
Pittsfield
Richmond Consolidated
Stamford

Maps for Thursday

Essentially, we're going to get what the models have shown for the past three days. The relative stability from model run to model run suggests the storm will likely do what forecasters are expecting. In that regard, it will behave a lot like Monday's storm so we should see 3-4 inches in most places and 5 inches in a few higher elevation spots. And that will mean many delays for students as well as a few full snow days called for students in North County.

Here are some maps:

We would prefer to see that 3-5" zone extend to the Connecticut border so we can see delays for everyone tomorrow. Unfortunately, it's another "wake up and see" event. We'll run our delay and cancellation list bright and early tomorrow morning.

No News Is Good News -- Snow to Affect AM Commute on Thursday

All systems are go for our latest snow/sleet event.

NWS Albany announced the Winter Weather Advisory for all of Berkshire County in the wee hours of the night. One to three inches with some icing is expected in South County while 3-5" is expected in North County. Higher elevation towns once again will likely be the big winners tomorrow.

The two-hour delay for most students is a safe bet. Snow might be transitioning to sleet and rain in South County around 7 AM, but there should be enough wintery slop on the road to delay the start of school. For schools north of Pittsfield, the snow should linger longer, giving those students a higher chance for a delay. Also, any Massachusetts school on the Vermont border has 50/50 chance for a snow day. Southern Vermont schools will have a better chance for a snow day than a delay.

Delays likely.

A big x-factor tomorrow will be how many phone calls your Superintendent received on Tuesday about the delay/snow day decision. If many parents were in your Superintendent's ear on Tuesday about how bad road conditions were when students eventually traveled to school, then you will have a greater chance for a full snow day due to the Once-Bitten-Twice-Shy Theorem of Snow Day Prognostication (Snowowski and Graupel 2012).

We'll post a few maps later this evening once the last few runs of the models come in. And we are really hoping for a last minute adjustment that bumps up totals--similar to Monday night's late evening fireworks--and if that were to happen, then snow days will be more the rule than the exception.

Snowy AM Commute on Thursday

We'll cut right to the chase--Thursday is shaping up for many students to have their third two-hour delay in the past 6 school days.

Both the Euro and North American models are more or less in agreement on this storm, with a range of 2.5 inches in South County to 5.5 inches in the north and northeast corner of Berkshire County. The big snow winners will be Florida, Clarksburg, Heath and Rowe, Mass and all the schools in Bennington County.

This map came out Tuesday morning so it probably will be updated later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow will be dry--and we shockingly could see the sun--before clouds roll in and then snow arrives after midnight. Most locations will see a changeover to rain by noon by Thursday. One very interesting tidbit we picked up from NWS Albany is the potential for bands of heavy snow between 8 AM and 11 AM just to the north of I-90. If this very precise forecast comes through, we could see snow days for Pittsfield and Central Berkshire and all schools north of those districts. That forecast is far from a certainty, but we're going to keep on eye on it as it will affect the Confidence Meter.

The bottom line is that the timing for this storm is just about perfect.

We don't have a Winter Weather Advisory yet for the Berkshires, but that will likely come in the next twelve hours.

Two More Chances for Delays and Snow Days

Last night, the late upgrade to the Winter Weather Advisory certainly panned out and created havoc this morning. Many schools went with delays and many a hue and cry was heard about how bad the driving was in some districts between 9 and 10 AM.

Snow totals very much depended on elevation. It seems that 1000 feet was the dividing line between rain and wet snow. Folks just to our east in the hill towns (Cummington, Plainfield, Savoy) saw between 6 and 9 inches of snow.

The instability continues. Again tonight, the hill towns could see sleet and freezing rain. Most locations in the Berkshires will see rain. A few delays are possible for the usual suspects, but tonight's weather event is a minor one.

The Weather Channel is bullish on this storm.

We are seeing signals that Thursday's storm will be much more robust. Models are calling for between 3.5 and 6 inches of snow with exquisite timing--snow should begin after midnight and continue through the morning hours before changing over to sleet and then rain.

The North American model for Thursday's storm.

The European model for Thursday's storm.

If had to a make a call right now, the GSD Staff would say a third of schools and districts will have snow days on Thursday and the rest will see delays. Models are not entirely in agreement about the timing of the changeover, so we will urge caution this far out from the onset of the precipitation.

Hopefully, we'll be able to provide a firmer prediction tomorrow.

Delays for Monday, Feb. 10

We have 1-2" on the ground at GSD. Streets are snow-covered and a light snow is still falling (5:30 AM). The temperature is creeping upward, so we'll have a few more hours of snow before the expected changeover to rain.

We do have delays to report this morning from a few districts:

SNOW DAY:

Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott
Stamford

TWO-HOUR DELAY

BART
Child Care of the Berkshires (transportation for No. County & Pittsfield; normal opening time)
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Hancock
Hillcrest Academy
Hoosac Valley Regional
Kinderhof Waldorf
McCann
Mount Greylock
North Adams
Pine Cobble
Pittsfield
Southern Berkshire

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday, Feb. 10

We're going to keep this short because the Oscars are on and at GSD we like movies.

NWS Albany has just announced a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire County, calling for 3-6 inches of snow. This certainly increases the chances for delays tomorrow for those school districts we named in the previous post.

The announcement of the WWA specifically identifies heavy snow at up to one inch an hour for northeast Berkshire County on Monday morning. Keep an eye on that!

We'll run our delay/closing list should districts call in.

Monday Delays Possible

Mid and South County got a dusting this afternoon ahead of the next storm system that will move into our area after midnight.

A more sustained snowfall will move in from the east-southeast and coat the highways and byways in the Berkshires with light snow. No Winter Weather Advisory has been announced, which means snow totals are 2" or under. Except for higher elevations, there's a good chance the snow will change over to rain by daybreak.

More liquid needed.

Still, the morning commute could be slick for some. Schools in the hill towns have a much better chance of a delay for tomorrow, but our confidence is low with this event. If there are delays tomorrow, the most likely schools would be the Hoosac Valley School District, the Mount Greylock School District, Southwestern Vermont Supervisory Union, Stamford, Hancock, Central Berkshire, Emma Miller and Gabriel Abbott.

The warm (and warming) temperatures are keeping confidence low.

As for the rest of the week, we will still be in a very active pattern. We said this last week, but don't expect to say hello to Mr. Sun this week. We have chances for snow/rain Tuesday morning, snow/sleet for Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and another snow/mixed precip event for Sunday night into Monday morning. If we were to rank these systems and their chances of giving us delays or snow days, we would say:

1. Thursday morning
2. Tomorrow morning
3. Tuesday morning

Next Monday is President's Day and the first day of February break for the public schools, so luck would have it that that storm will be the big blockbuster we've been waiting for since our last big storm in early December.

Still, that's a lot to look forward to--especially Thursday--and the GSD Staff will be very busy this week producing content.

Another Delay Opportunity for Monday

For a storm that yielded less than four inches of snow in most locations in the Berkshires, we certainly got our money's worth. Most schools delayed or cancelled on Thursday, and about a third of the schools in our region shortened the school day or cancelled it outright on Friday. Timing is everything.

That adage will once again be applicable Sunday night into Monday. With plenty of cold air in place--we should bottom out in the single digits early Sunday morning--the next system will move into our area from the southwest late Sunday night. We should see 1-3 inches of snow before a transition to rain on Monday as warm air will accompany the storm system. We could hit 40 degrees later on Monday.

As long it's still snowing in that 5 AM to 7 AM window, we should see some delays. Working parents might disagree, but delays are generally crowd-pleasers. The safety-first folks are usually satisfied with the extra two hours, and the snow day-aholics are typically placated because "at least its something." And administrators can live with them because they don't push the end of the school year to the July 4th weekend.

We would like to see the snow totals bumped up by forecasters before moving the Confidence Meter above 25% for delays. More about this minor storm tomorrow.

Delays, Cancellations and Releases for Friday, Feb. 7

The wet and wintry conditions persist this morning, and we do have a few schools and districts calling in delays and snow days. Mostly rain is falling in the county, but mixed precipitation is the concern in higher elevation towns. Everyone will see a changeover to snow later this afternoon as the temperatures begins to plummet.

SNOW DAY:

Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Central Berkshire
Farmington River

EARLY RELEASE:

BART
Hancock
Mount Greylock
Southwest VT SU
Stamford

Messy Friday

Yesterday around this time we said that most students would have a full day of school today. What we meant to say was that most students would have a shortened day today. At least we were wrong in the right direction.

The timing was absolutely spot on perfect for the delays and snow days this morning. And never underestimate the psychological power of sleet. Because snow is so silent, it's sometimes easy to slough off a few inches as a nuisance snow. But sleet makes a racket bouncing off windows and is impossible to ignore. It just gets in the heads of Superintendents until they have no choice but to opt for a delay or snow day.

Tomorrow's storm is proving to be a mess. We'll see rain later tonight and then a transition to freezing rain then snow at some point tomorrow. In fact, the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 7 PM tomorrow. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for places well west and north of us.

The ride home tomorrow afternoon could be flat-out ugly for folks north of I-90. After a period of heavy rain in the morning, we should see a changeover to sleet and snow. When that changeover will occur is very hard to say, but the models and forecasters are saying midday for Berkshire County. We should see 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow by the time it ends in the evening.

Because of the uncertainty of the timing of the changeover, early releases are possible but not likely for some schools and districts tomorrow. Again it would appear that students in the northern half of the county have a better chance for releases than others.

We'll most likely update early tomorrow morning before school if we get more info about the timing of the transition from rain to sleet to snow.

Delays and Closings for Thursday, Feb. 6

At the GSD Home Office, we have light snow/freezing drizzle and snow-covered roads (5:15 AM). And we are also pleased to report delays and closings. It seems that this storm has been more potent than we thought it would be, and the timing of it has been perfect. We'll update this list throughout the morning.

UPDATE (6:30): Snow and sleet should continue to fall until 9 AM, which could convert some of these delays to full snow days.

SNOW DAY:

Berkshire Community College
Berkshire Waldorf
Gabriel Abbott
Hillcrest Academy
Mohawk Trail
Pittsfield
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Berkshire Christian (Lenox)
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Montessori
Berlin
Child Care of the Berkshires (transportation cancelled)
Central Berkshire
Emma Miller
Emma Willard
Farmington River
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
Lenox
Mount Greylock
New Lebanon
North Adams
Northern Berkshire Voc.
Pine Cobble
Richmond
Southern Berkshire

Snow, Sleet, Rain and Snow for Thursday and Friday

We have a couple of not insignificant developments to report about the weather that will affect the Berkshires for the next 60 hours.

First, the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended to include Southern Berkshire county with 1-3 inches of snow expected and perhaps a short period of icing. The forecast is about the same for North County, except for folks on the Vermont border possibly seeing 4 inches of snow. Some ice is expected there, although it does seem like a transition to rain or a dry period will arrive shortly after the morning commute tomorrow.

Not very inspiring.

Despite the expansion of the WWA, confidence is still relatively low for delays tomorrow. We don't think Berkshire County will get shut out, but the majority of students will have a full day tomorrow.

Second, the back end of the storm (actually, a second storm) will develop into a coastal event for Friday afternoon and evening. Winter Storm Watches are up for locations north and west of the Berkshires, and there's a good chance we'll see a Winter Weather Advisory or Watch for the Berkshires at some point tomorrow. A best case scenario might be 3-5 inches of snow for the County; the worst case would a lot of sleet followed by an inch or two of snow.

Even less inspiring. Better hope for ice!

Unfortunately, this Friday coastal storm will arrive too late to affect the length of the school day, but it could cancel any school-related events Friday night. That would not be ideal for the high school sports schedule especially because we will likely see more snowy weather in the next few weeks that will almost assuredly necessitate adjustments to the after-school activity schedule.

Let's see what we get when we wake up tomorrow morning. GSD will be on the case and run a list of delays, should there be any. And we're definitely intrigued by the Friday coastal storm and how it will impact the Berkshires. Temps will be in the low teens by Saturday morning so cold air will not be an issue for storm part 2. And early Sunday will be below zero in most parts in the region.

Winter!

Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire (Thursday, Feb. 6)

NWS Albany has released a Winter Weather Advisory for folks in the northern half of Berkshire County. We have an advisory because a few inches of snow will likely fall before and during the morning commute, with the snow transitioning to sleet and/or freezing drizzle in the morning hours. About a tenth of an inch of ice is expected.

If you fashion yourself a hearty New Englander, then you will think that surely an inch or two of slushy snow should not cause a delay of the school day. If you are the safety first type, then you will absolutely think we should have a delay tomorrow. If you're a student, well--we know what you think.

So, this is what we think: most students in Berkshire County will have a full day of school tomorrow with a few delays in the area. Adams/Cheshire, Savoy, Clarksburg, MAU are the likeliest schools/districts to see a delay, but it's no slam dunk.

Ice is always nice, but will it be enough?

The problem with this storm is, once again, insufficient cold air and not enough moisture. We will see the temperature drop throughout the day, but as the moisture moves in around 2 AM, the temps will begin to inch closer to and then above freezing. The longer the cold air can stay in place, the better our chances will be for delays tomorrow.

If we have a prolonged period of sleet/freezing rain, then our chance for a later start or full snow day rises significantly. We just don't think there will be enough ice with this storm to spook Superintendents to the point where they decide to keep people home.

We'll update in the early evening.

Messy End of Week Storm

Don't expect to see the sun much this week. It may peek out this afternoon, but then the rest of the week will be cloudy with some form of precipitation each day Tuesday through Friday.

The Wednesday/Thursday situation is getting very interesting. The latest forecast is for a snow Wednesday night transitioning to sleet and freezing rain during the day on Thursday. The models are not in great agreement--unlike the last time we had a mixed precipitation event (December 17)--so this is less likely to cancel school on Thursday, but there still is a greater chance today than yesterday that the length of the school day will be shortened in some way.

This storm is also supposed to carry into Friday, when the precipitation will change back to snow. It will be light but possibly enough to gum up the works for the Friday morning commute.

Total potential snow accumulation through February 19th. Should it be accurate, this means we'll have at least one moderate to heavy snow event in the Feb. 3 to Feb. 19 window.

We're not talking about a blockbuster here for this prolonged storm, but at least the pattern appears to be shifting (see above) and giving us more storminess.

The Return of Winter

Before we talk about the active week of weather systems in the forecast, we need to report that January 2020 was the 6th warmest ever in Albany and the 3rd warmest ever in Boston. We're starting to see that headline often in all seasons in the last five years. Things are going to get worse before they get better if we don't start taking steps to rein in humans' impact on the climate.

On a more uplifting note, we may actually see enough frozen precipitation this week to cause a delay. We have had a few dustings recently, which were nice, but we are now looking at Thursday as a possible delay day.

We will see a minor weather system Tuesday/Wednesday that should be rain, but something is starting to take shape for Wednesday night into Thursday. Surprise, surprise--the models are in disagreement. The Euro wants to make it warmer--thus a shorter period of snow--but the North American thinks it will be colder, which would give us a more snow.

The timing looks great, but the lack of agreement on the models means you'll have to return to this site a few more times before we get a better handle on the track of the low pressure system.

And more good news is that the middle third of February is supposed to be active, according to the models, and we could see a significant snow storm in that period.