Friday Storm Update: Wednesday Edition #2

More information is coming in about the storm on Friday and--we'll be blunt--it's not very helpful. The models are beginning to agree with each other more and more, but that agreement still doesn't give us a clear picture of what's going to happen.

What do we know:

*The storm is going to start as rain and then turn to snow
*It should start sometime on Thursday night
*It will end on Saturday morning
*We should get at least an inch of liquid precipitation

What we don't know:

*The timing of the rain-to-snow conversion

Based on the models and what all the experts are saying, we will see snow cover the roads in the Berkshires at some point on Friday. That coverage could happen as early as midday; it could happen as late as the evening rush hour. There lies the rub, and it's what is going to make the decision for Superintendents very difficult on Friday. Fortunately for them, they can safely rule out delays on Friday because of the late development of the snow.

Not bad. Getting better.

The least attractive scenario is that Superintendents hold off on any snow day or early dismissal announcements and we get by unscathed until the snow comes down in the afternoon. The best case scenario is we get upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning at some point on Thursday, the changeover to snow occurs Friday morning, and all the good boys and girls of the Berkshires enjoy a snow day.

No school for many New York friends on Friday.

Right now we think most students will have a full day, but some districts--namely Northern Berkshire school systems and Central Berkshire--will go with an early release. This is not a high confidence prediction right now, but it's something the GSD Staff hopes to build on.

We could live with this.

The last thing we should say is that the projected snow totals are edging upward ever so slightly with each run of the models. We endorse this trend and hope it continues.

Friday Storm Update: Wednesday Edition #1

Things are trending in a better direction for us for snow on Friday. The newest forecast map (below) has us getting solid 3-4 inches of snow for Berkshire County. Unfortunately, it looks like the bulk of this snow will fall after 12 PM on that day.

Winter Storm Watches are up for almost all of New York except for the eastern border counties. But it's likely these Watches will expand all the way to the east in New York, Western Mass, Northwest Connecticut and Vermont. Those Winter Weather Advisories and Watches could come in as early as this afternoon.

There's still great uncertainty about the storm. It's almost guaranteed to start as rain, and we simply don't know when and if the changeover to snow will occur. Not surprisingly, the snow conversion will happen first in higher elevation towns and then seep into valley locations gradually.

One interesting development to watch for: If the precipitation comes down heavily, this will increase our chances for heavy snow. The heavier the precipitation falls, the more cold air gets sucked down toward the surface. Really hard rain initially will lead to a faster changeover to snow.

Because of the window for snow looks to be a tad later than we'd like it to be, we'll hold off on a lot of movement on the ol' True North Confidence Meter. But adjustments to it will be coming as more information about the track of the storm becomes clearer.

Friday Storm Update: Tuesday Edition

The GSD Staff is still very hesitant about getting too excited about the Friday storm. The warm temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are spooking us and leading us to believe we won't see much snow at all on Friday.

But, we are saying there is a chance. Here are two very interesting maps from the National Weather Service, Albany bureau: 

The first map shows what snow totals we're likely to get; the second map shows what we could get if this storm really ramps up and sucks colder air into our region. The two maps show quite a spread of possibilities, which is unusual for the NWS. 

What these maps really mean is at this stage in the proceedings it's anyone's guess. We will probably get 1-3 inches, but we might also get hammered with 6-9 inches. If the model predictions operate the way they normally do, we'll probably see the current 1-2 inch forecast bump up on in the next 48 hours to a 2-4 inch or 3-5 inch prediction. At that point, we'll see Winter Weather Advisories for Friday.

Let's just say we have our full attention on this potential storm. It might ultimately be a rainstorm, but the chance for a significant snowstorm is still hanging out there. We will bump up our chances for an early release on Friday because of these maps, but, realistically, most students will have full days of school on Friday.

At least that's we're saying today. More to come tomorrow.

Friday Storm Update: Monday Edition

We're officially pumping the brakes on the big storm for Friday. Two reasons: it probably won't be cold enough for all snow, and the storm seems to be headed farther south, which will keep precipitation totals down for our area.

There's still a chance for a major storm. The snow we got two weekends ago seemingly came out of nowhere, and the typical model pattern is, first, predictions for a big event a week before the storm, then confusion for a few days, and, finally a return to the original prediction 36-hours before the storm is expected to hit.

You can see from this forecast map that the brunt of the precipitation will fall just off the Cape. In this scenario, we might get 3-4 inches of snow.

The other interesting aspect of this storm that makes it unlike any other we've seen this season is how long it will last. It could start as early as Thursday night and carry over all the way into Saturday. The slow-moving nature will allow for the precipitation to add up; whether it is rain or snow is the looming question.

As of tonight we're not feeling the love for this storm the way we'd like to be at this point in the proceedings. Those 50-degree days on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday may just simply be too much to overcome.

We're definitely not dismissing this storm yet, but we may have to get deeper into March to see another big snowmaker. We are very much of the opinion that Old Man Winter has at least one more big one in him this season.

Late Week Storm

With a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 1 PM today, you can expect sloppy, slippery conditions this morning as the sleet eventually changes over to all rain in the afternoon. Don't even think about it: tomorrow's commute to school will be fine.

We will have mild and calm weather to start the week, but some ingredients are in play for a big storm Thursday night into Friday. We will have cold air to our north and two pieces of energy coming at us from the south and west. The models are all showing moderate to heavy precipitation amounts. The big ifs for this storm will be the snow/mixed precip/rain quandary that we often see in these late winter disturbances. We will have much more to say about this developing situation as the week progresses.

This map shows how much liquid is predicted for the Friday storm. If we use a lower snow-to-liquid ratio (because we'll be right around freezing with this storm) to translate this image into snow, we would see 5 to 10 inches from this storm.

Enjoy the last day of vacation. We'll have daily updates about the end of the week storm starting tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory: Thursday, Feb. 22

It's back to winter reality for Berkshirites today. We have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the entire day. We're expecting 2-4 inches of snow with sleet mixing in, especially earlier in the day. The frozen precipitation should end by 6 or 7 this evening. For those with 9 to 5 jobs, the commute home should be slow today.

Record Temps for Wednesday

Happy Vacation. Enjoy this warmth while it lasts. Snow expected on Thursday in the afternoon. Only an inch expected.

Winter Storm Warning: Saturday Into Sunday

Surprise, surprise. The National Weather Service has upgraded all of Berkshire County to a Winter Storm Warning. The warning period is from 7 tonight to 7 tomorrow morning. Snow should start between 8 and 9 PM.

While this storm will not be a blockbuster, it could easily drop half a foot on us by Sunday morning. This means the snow will come down heavily in the middle of the night.

Enjoy this snow as it will not be around for long. Temps into the 40s tomorrow afternoon. We're now seeing 70s--yes, you read that correctly--on Wednesday. That's absurd.

Winter's back.

Plowable Snow For Saturday Night

Happy (almost) vacation, everybody. The GSD Staff has jumpstarted the week off a little early with a weekend jaunt to the eastern part of the state, but that doesn't mean we can't still do our jobs.

It turns out we have a Winter Storm Watch over here in Boston for late Saturday night, which means we could see a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires, especially the southern half of the county.

A coastal storm looks to be attempting a sneak attack on New England. The expected time window of this storm is midnight Saturday until 8 or 9 AM Sunday. You might need extra time to get to church or hockey practice Sunday morning due to 3-4 inches of snow on the roadways.

It has definitely started looking ugly around the Berkshires with half-melted snow piles and patchy ice and muddy yards and fields. This storm should clean things up for a few days until it starts to melt away again during vacation week. Alas.

We're stuck in this warm pattern for at least a few weeks. We will likely hit 60 on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then temps will slip back into the 40s for the rest of the week. Let's hope we're getting this warmth out of our system in preparation for another couple of rounds of winter in early March.

Enjoy the snow on Sunday!

How Digital Learning Could Increase the Number of Snow Days...But There's a Catch

Digital learning. Online courses. Chromebooks and iPads in the classroom.

They all spell the "death" of the snow day. Or so the experts say.

As computer technology embeds itself deeper and deeper into the classroom at all levels, it won't be long before students are required to check in and complete assignments, via a digital portal, posted on their teachers' websites. Many schools around the country have already gone to "digital learning days"--for example, Farmington River Regional School District uses "blizzard bags"--and the snow day offers a great opportunity to put new, glitzy digital learning technologies to the test.

Does this mean the death of the snow day?

In terms of the pure joy of finding out through a robocall, or this website, that students don't have to get dressed and go to school, that excitement will still be palpable. But what won't feel so great is that the release from all academic responsibility will not be present (presuming students actually did all their homework the night before).  Instead, students will have to check in with their teachers' web spaces and complete homework assignments online during the snow day. This is happening already in classes. If it isn't happening in your school, it is just around the corner.

So how do these digital learning days work?

As long as schools can prove that students are completing assignments and learning when they work from home--and learning management systems (LMSs) such as Canvas, Moodle, Schoology and Edmodo are very good at collecting the data schools will need--then state Boards of Education will allow these "snow days" to count as "time on learning."

(For those wondering about students who don't have reliable internet at home, provisions are in place to allow students to make up snow day assignments once students return to school. In most cases, students will have a few days after a snow day to complete the work for it to count as an assignment.)

Because doing assignments at home while the snow piles up on Route 7 can now count as a school day, it is the GSD Staff's professional opinion that Superintendents, knowing that they have a backup learning plan in place, will have the leeway to call more snow days. Why risk an accident when students can complete lessons at home?

Yes, these digital learning days will kill the soul of the snow day, but they will eventually lead to more opportunities for students to stay home from school.

The Usual Suspects

The temps have dropped into the high teens, which means some untreated side roads could be slippery this morning. Most schools will be session for a full day, but we do have a few delays to report from our region.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Farmington River
Mohawk Trail
Southwest Vermont SU
Berline (NY)
Hoosick Fals (NY)
New Lebanon (NY)

A Perfect Call

In the end, today's storm managed to be the perfect call for Superintendents and a bust at the same time.

The snow came in right on time at 9:10 at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. By 11:30, when many high school students would have been let out for an early release, side roads and main roads were covered in 1.5 inches. The snow really picked up for a few hours before we saw a lull around 2:00 and then the changeover to rain was much quicker and much farther to the north than was expected.

Now, at 7 PM, the snow has returned and it is coming down a moderate clip. We'll see a few more hours of snow and another 1-3 inches on top of a layer of sleet/ice that is on top of about 4 inches of snow. Cleaning it all up by the morning will be a chore.

Snow totals from NWS Albany. You can add 4.5" from Williamstown at 7:00 PM to this list. 

There are always chances for delays the day after a storm, but road crews in all towns should have ample time to get on top of it by the morning commute. We'll leave a small percentage on the TNCM, but students will all be in school tomorrow.

So, what's next? Temps on Thursday will be chilly--high teens and low 20s with with a fresh post-storm breeze--and then another system will move in for Friday evening. This one has less moisture to work with so it will only give us 1-3 inches. We do not foresee any postponed games that night, but the drive home from those games could be slow. With the additional few inches of snow, hopefully the county's high school cross-country skiers will have their race on Saturday at Mount Greylock.

We do advise you not go out tonight as the roads are a mess. Take extra time to clean up tomorrow as the snow and ice will be stubborn to get out of your driveways and walkways.

Snow Days: Wednesday, February 7

Good morning! The snow is still a few hours away from Berkshire County, but many school districts have phoned in their decision for today.

We expect the snow to begin around 9:30, south and north, and it should become heavy fairly soon thereafter. We will see a period of sleet for the entire county, which will keep totals in the 6-8" range north and 4-6" range south. As a result, we should see a clean sweep for snow days.

Here is our running tally, which we'll update throughout the morning:

SNOW DAY:

Adams-Cheshire
BArT
Bement School
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Community College
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Montessori
Berkshire Waldorf HS
Central Berkshire
Emma Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
Housatonic Academy
Kinderhof Waldorf
Lanesborough
Lee
Lenox
Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts
Mount Greylock
North Adams
Northern Berkshire Vocational (McCann)
Pine Cobble
Pittsfield
Southern Vermont College
Richmond
Southern Berkshire
Southern Vermont SU
Williams College (Administration Offices at 1:30)
Williamstown

Expected Snowfall:

Winter Storm Wednesday (February 7)

We've said all we really need to say about the storm, but there are a few important updates. The storm does seem to be moving just slightly to the north of us, which means North County will get the brunt and should stay as all snow, while South County should see plenty of sleet. We've said our piece on sleet earlier, so those lower snow totals are not completely detrimental.

There's just enough off about this storm to think that a bust is possible. But because North County is in a Winter Storm Warning and the Winter Storm Watch continues for the south--and the storm is expected to hit fairly hard when it starts--it would appear the roads will be amply snow-covered for the ride home at around noon. Also, because we'll be close to freezing, the snow will be a greasy snow, not the dry powdery kind. This will make travel difficult.

As long as the snow starts when it is supposed to, almost all students will have a short day or a full snow day. This tweet from NWS Albany supports our thinking that the snow will start between 9 and 10 AM.

Unfortunately, most Superintendents (not North Adams'!) made the prudent decision to wait until the AM to make their decisions. We'll be up bright and early to start the running tally. But here's what we have so far:

CLOSED:

North Adams
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Farmington River
Berkshire Waldorf HS
Southern Vermont SU

Midday Report: Wednesday Storm (February 7)

Almost all weather experts are on board for a major snowstorm for Wednesday. We continue to have high confidence in the early release for all districts in Berkshire County, and a better than 55% chance that we get full snow days for all.

The mixed precipitation line does seem to be creeping ever northward. While that may seem like a problem for those who want a full snow day, it could actually work out better as we all know that it's safer to drive in snow than it is to drive on ice. So, even though snow totals might be lower in South County, we think they would have a better chance for a full snow day if the sleet is expected to move in as early as noon, as that is the time when most high school students will be released from their hives of learning and sent out onto the roadways.

Here are a few maps that we like:

Thanks, Weather Channel.

And you also, Channel 13 WNYT.

We're waiting for a few more runs of the models this afternoon and evening before we make our final call on this storm. But you should be encouraged.

Winter Storm Watch (Still) for Wednesday

While folks just to our north got the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning this morning, the Berkshires are still under a Winter Storm Watch as of this morning.

The models are showing that enough warm air could make it to the southern Berkshires to produce a period of sleet in the afternoon on Wednesday. This period of sleet will be well after the difficult decisions are made in the morning about the length of the school day on Wednesday.

Our latest intel from NWS Albany shows the storm will start between 8 and 10 AM. Heavy snow is expected midday and in the afternoon, but it will be a fast-moving storm and rocket out of our region between midnight and 2 AM.

Given the slightly earlier expected start to the storm (good) coupled with the increasing threat for sleet (also good, in a way), we're very confident students will be sent home early or have no school tomorrow. We have heard that the Pittsfield Superintendent already sent out a call that schools in that district will likely have a release tomorrow. The GSD Staff applauds the proactiveness of this Superintendent.

More to come, including our favorite storm feature, "A Festival of Maps," later tonight.

Winter Storm Watch: Wednesday, February 7

The Wednesday storm is right on schedule with the NWS posting a Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires and the entire region starting Wednesday at 7 AM and ending at 4 AM on Thursday.

With cold, dry air in place and the expected liquid precipitation to be between half an inch and three-quarters of an inch, we should see at least half a foot of snow for the Berkshires.

Not much change from NWS-Albany's earlier map, but it does raise expected snow totals slightly.

The main storm will come in from the Great Plains and then strengthen as it pulls in moisture from the ocean. Right now the heaviest period of snow should occur between noon and 8 PM on Wednesday.

This storm could very well be a bust if too much warm air sneaks its way into the Berkshires and gives us 2-4 inches of snow then rainy slush, but most of the models are calling for all snow from I-90 north.

Here's the juicy stuff. The GSD Staff expects this storm to play out in the following manner: The NWS will upgrade us to the Winter Storm Warning tomorrow. Tomorrow night (Tuesday) many schools will call in an early release for Wednesday, and, depending on the timing of the expected first flake, some schools will opt for the full snow day. It's also possible schools that went with the early release the night before will upgrade on Wednesday morning if heavy snow is expected as early as 11 AM. Our confidence level is definitely higher than it's been in a few weeks that the length of the school day will be affected for all schools because of this storm.

Not as good as our local mapmakers, but it's still looking good for a moderate to heavy snow event.

It's too early to know for sure when the storm will start, but the start time will be the deciding factor for Superintendents between a snow day and an early release. We should be able to pinpoint the timing better by tomorrow afternoon and night.

Whatever happens, we predict that no school in the area will have after school activities on Wednesday, including games and performances in the evening.

Wednesday Storm

Just a little teaser for what's allegedly headed our way on Wednesday. More extensive details later this afternoon. We do have some concerns about the timing and threat of rain, but this map is an encouraging sign.

No Delays For Berkshire County (Monday, Feb. 5)

While many schools to the north and west of Berkshire County have called for a two-hour delay, no schools in Massachusetts have opted for more time to get to school.

Do be aware of deteriorating driving conditions this morning. The temperature will drop below freezing when high school buses start to roll, so there could be patchy icing, and there is also a chance for a snow squall when the elementary school buses are out on the roads.

Here are a few delays of note:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Southwest Vermont SU
New Lebanon
Berlin
Hoosic Falls

Mixed Bag Sunday; Major Storm Threat For Wednesday

Greetings, Flake Followers. And Happy Super Bowl Sunday.

We have a messy forecast for today. Light and intermittent snow will fall throughout the morning, and then later in the afternoon we'll see the snow showers transition to rain and then back again to snow around midnight. Despite all the precipitation, it won't add up to very much (see the forecast map below) as the system is not tightly organized. Most of us will get a coating of snow or an inch, but some folks in the higher elevation towns could get up to 4 inches. The roads will be more wet than icy; travel could be slow for several hours in the middle of the day.

The 7:30 AM radar. The area that this storm is covering is impressive.

Because the storm is so big, there is the outside chance that precipitation will last long enough to give some students delays. Central Berkshire and Adams/Cheshire would be the likelier candidates because A) this storm will have a stronger impact on the northern half of the county, and B) those districts have higher elevation towns. It is not likely that they will have delays, but the chance does exist.

The great news is that a moderate to heavy snowfall is looking better and better for Wednesday. If it works out, we're looking at 5-10 inches for the Berkshires. The only thing holding us back from putting 100% confidence on the TNCM for a snow day is the temperature. The rain-snow line will be dangerously close to us and could hold totals down. Even if the storm does change over to rain, we are hearing from our most reliable sources that that shift will take place midday on Wednesday, which means there will be enough snow on the ground during the morning commute for it to impact the length of the school day.

Courtesy of The Weather Channel.

The GSD Office will be hopping on Monday and Tuesday to provide you the best information about the Wednesday storm. Right now it's looking really good. Enjoy the game tonight (or the ads or Justin Timberlake or a nice big book in a comfy chair).

Super Bowl Sunday Snow

The active weather pattern continues, as we have the potential for measurable snow Sunday, Tuesday/Wednesday and Friday of next week. The polar vortex is spinning around in northern Canada like a centrifuge, and pieces of energy keep popping off of it and digging into the United States. This storm machine is churning away and giving all of these great opportunities for snow.

Yes, these storms haven't been impressive, but we do like the pattern we're in. Eventually, we will hit pay dirt with one of these storms.

Thanks, Accuweather.

The Sunday storm looks like it will bring 2-5 inches of snow to the Berkshires, with less south and greater amounts north. The onset of the storm appears to be in the evening on Sunday, starting at some point right before or during the Big Game. We do not think the snow will last long enough into Monday to warrant full snow days, but delays are possible on the 5th, especially for Adams-Cheshire, North Adams, and Mount Greylock.

The Tuesday/Wednesday storm will be a longer-lasting event. The main hold-up, though, for that storm will be warming temperatures. A period of rain could factor in and keep snow totals down. There is still a lot of variability in the models for that storm, so it would foolish to predict anything worth talking about yet. However, we do like the timing of that storm a lot.

The blustery cold will be uncomfortable tonight, and Saturday will just be plain cold. Sunday, the temps moderate a few degrees up until the snow moves in during the early evening hours.

We're at a conference on Saturday in New York and will be very busy, but we'll try to update should there be any major changes with the snow totals or timing of the storm. At the very least we'll give a storm update on Sunday morning.

Have a great weekend!

Delays for Friday, February 2

The snow is subsiding (as of 5:30 AM) for most of Berkshire County, but it was heavy enough overnight to generate a few delays. With the snow and plummeting temperatures (low 20s already), some Supers are going to give folks an extra few hours to get to school this morning.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

BArT
Emma Miller
Adams-Cheshire
North Adams
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Southern Berkshire
Southwest Vermont SU
Southern Vermont College
New Lebanon (NY)
Berlin (NY)
Hoosick Falls (NY)

Messy Friday Commute

Be alert to messy travel conditions for Friday morning. Light rain has overtaken the Berkshires this evening, but the rain will change to snow as the temps drop into the 20s and continue to get colder throughout the day on Friday.

The wet roads with snow on top will lead to icing conditions that will lead to extra slow travel for Friday morning. The snow should end around 5 AM, so road crews might have enough time to take care of side streets before the morning commute. We will have to see.

We'll bump up the chance for delays tomorrow due to this late-breaking weather development.

False Hopes

We keep getting excited about big storms for our area, but the low-pressure systems just don't want to cooperate, and we're now looking at our third big fizzle in a row. We will see a few flakes in the air tonight, but our best guess is that tomorrow's commute will be much easier than today's was.

We picked up a later-than-expected half inch of snow this morning to slow things down out on the roadways. If schools had a one-hour delay protocol--as they many of them used to have in the past--they might have opted with that decision just to give everyone a little extra time to get to homeroom on time.

We don't think there will be delays tomorrow, but it's worth your while to keep your ears open for plows in the pre-dawn hours.

Even more bad news: our latest intel on our Super Bowl storm is not encouraging. We needed a storm from the Plains to get out in front of a trough (essentially, a dip in the jet stream), but the models are not supporting that scenario. It really could have been a big one; instead, the storm on Sunday will give us snow throughout the day but it won't amount to much. The max snow totals look to be 3-4 inches and ending well before midnight.

We won't have to wait long for the next chance for a storm. The models are suggesting yet another disturbance to move through the Berkshires Tuesday night into Wednesday. It's the same set-up as Friday and Sunday's storm. It could develop into a moderate storm, but there's an equal chance it will fizzle and give us a light wintry mix.

You have to think we'll hit it right on one of these opportunities, but we're not even going to waste the energy to be cautiously optimistic about this event in the middle of the week.

Hopefully, one of these storms will surprise us.