No Storms in Sight

The first snow storm of the 2015-16 season performed about as expected. We ended up with 1.25 inches of snow at the GSD Home Office with another half inch of sleet tacked on. Had schools been in session, we would have seen many initial calls for two-hour delays, but then some Superintendents would have changed their minds and made Tuesday a full snow day. As always with ice, it would have been a hit-or-miss, confusing morning.

We see no storms on the horizon. Rats. Temperatures will be in the high 30s for the rest of the week and then a shot of cold air moves into the Berkshires for the return to school and work on Monday. Highs on Monday will not reach 30. Alas, though, no snow is attached to this cold front.

The GSD Staff has its eyes and ears wide open. We are back to work and eager for more action. The good news is that the next storm we will see will likely impact the school day in some fashion. Can't wait!

2014-2015 Snow Totals

2014-15 Snow History

Nov. 13/14: 1.7"

Nov. 17: 0.4"

Nov. 26/27: 11.0"

Nov. 27/28: 0.9"

Nov. 29: 0.2"

Dec. 5: 0.6"

Dec. 11: 3.2"

Dec. 12: 0.4"

Dec. 21: trace

Jan. 7: 0.2

Jan. 9: 2.2

Jan. 13: 4.5

Jan. 24: 1.8

Jan. 30: 5.0

Feb. 3: 12.5

Feb. 5: 6.0

Feb. 9: 8.1

Feb. 12: 0.5

Feb. 15: 4.1

Feb. 21: 4.5

Mar. 2: 1.0

Mar. 3: 2.1

Mar. 20: 1.0

Mar. 28: 0.8

Season Total: 72.8"

Messy Tuesday Morning

Despite the low snow totals for this first storm of the season, it still should provide plenty of travel headaches for the first half of the day on Tuesday.

Courtesy of Accuweather. GSD agrees with this assessment.

Expect the snow to start between 8 and 9 PM tonight. Lower accumulations (1-2 inches) are expected in South County tonight, but the sleet will kick in around 2-3 AM for everyone in the area. The period of sleet will extend through the morning commute, and then we'll see all rain (10ish), with some of it freezing on surfaces initially. The bulk of the precipitation should end by 1 PM on Tuesday.

There just might be enough snow for a little sledding tomorrow. Hopefully, the rain won't move in too quickly and kill all the fun.

But plan your road travel in the morning accordingly. Consider hanging out at home and playing with your new holiday toys or diving into that book you got in your stocking. The roads should be fine by the afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday Night/Tuesday

While it hasn't officially been announced yet, expect NOAA to announce our first Winter Weather Advisory for the season later tonight or tomorrow morning. WWAs usually mean less than 6 inches of snow.

Unfortunately, this storm will not be a big snow producer. What it will produce is a giant mess for those commuting to work on Tuesday morning. The snow--starting around midnight Monday--will come down for a few hours before changing over to sleet before the morning commute. The sleet will continue for an hour or two before we shift to all rain. Any accumulating snow--2 to 4 inches--will likely get washed out by the end of the day on Tuesday, which is bad news for skiers. Expect to see temps in the mid and upper 30s on Tuesday, explaining the changeover to rain.

Don't forget that earlier this fall we predicted that these types of storms would be the norm for this winter because of el nino. Without the cold air firmly in place, we're going to have to get used to snow/sleet/rain events. The silver lining is that these kinds of events are often better for school cancellations because of A) their unpredictability and B) the threat of ice. Road crews, Superintendents and bus companies all hate ice.

More to follow tomorrow, but look for the announcement of that Winter Weather Advisory.

Rain Sunday, Snow Monday Night, Sleet Tuesday

Welcome back, dear readers. Everything is still on track for a plowable snowstorm for Tuesday. We'll have to endure a rainy, mild Sunday before we get to the good stuff on Monday night.

The North American model is leading the charge for a more moderate snow event. The Canadian and European are predicting a faster changeover to all rain on Tuesday.

Here's how it will likely play out: snow will start later on Monday night and continue to fall through Tuesday morning; by mid-morning we'll see and hear sleet mixing in, and then the storm will change to all rain by Tuesday night.

We do not have a firm reading on when the storm will start yet, but Monday evening athletic contests in the Berkshires should be safe from postponement and/or cancellation.

The sleet will hold snow totals down. GSD Staff consensus is that we'll see about 4 inches of snow before the sleet and rain come in to compact the snow down to a few inches. Sadly for all those cross country skiing enthusiasts, it doesn't look as if there will be enough of a base for skiing on Wednesday (without damaging your skis). Temps are supposed to slide back into the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maybe the forecast will swing more in the positive direction, but even in the best case scenario this storm is not a blockbuster. Tuesday's commute to work will be dicey, but roads should be treated by the end day.

Significant Snowstorm for Tuesday?

Encouraging news continues to come in from our various weather news outlets about our storm on Tuesday. Even though there is no snow day possibility for this one, we're nonetheless very excited about it in GSD land.

Our significant snow storms are usually one variety or another. The first kind comes up out of the Gulf of Mexico/Southeast and gains intensity on the coast. These storms are our nor'easters. The second kind of storm comes from central Canada and the Great Lakes region, slides across the Northeast, then re-forms--usually picking up lots of moisture--on the Atlantic coast. Our storm on Tuesday will be the second type of storm.

This second type of storm is often less predictable because of A) the place where the secondary low reforms and B) how long it takes for the low to move out of our region after it reforms. Sometimes the re-formed low can get blocked in and more or less pump snow into New England. Also, the counterclockwise motion of the low pressure system typically drags cold air in from the north. The longer the low stays on the coast, the colder it stays and the more snow we'll get.

So...what's a likely scenario for Tuesday? Some meteorologists' analyses of the computer models indicate that the low will re-form on the coast late Monday night and take its time moving out. We could see snow totals in the 6-9 inch range. But it won't be that cold--high twenties--so the threat of sleet is ever present and that could keep snow totals down.

Here are a few maps to consider:

Thanks, Accuweather!

And then there's this one:

Thanks, NOAA!

This large map shows that we could get around an inch of liquid precipitation with this storm. If we offer up a modest 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio (a rational thing to do because of the relatively warm temperatures), you can do the math and realize that we'll have to get friendly with our snow shovels for this first time this season.

Life is good. It's Christmas. We're on vacation. Family and friends are around. And GSD is back in business, baby. How sweet it is.

Finally!

At long last, we finally have some good news to report on the flake front. Starting Monday evening and lasting through the day on Tuesday, the Berkshires should see its first measurable snow of this (already) lamest winter ever. 

Early reports of 3-5 inches sound about right, based on the information the storm-starved GSD Staff has gathered. 

The big question for this storm will be if sleet mixes in, thus keeping snow totals down. Worst case scenario--right now--is for about an inch of snow then slushy rain. Best case scenario would be the cold gets trapped in our area and we end up with half a foot. 

Either way, we finally have something fun to talk about at GSD Headquarters. 

We'll have much more to report about this storm in the next few days. 

Happy Holidays!

Godzilla El Nino and Berkshire County

With its typical flair for the hyperbolic, weather forecasters around the country have worked themselves into a tizzy because of the strong El Nino pattern that is currently affecting the continental US (among other places).

And a tizzy-inducing weather pattern needs a big, destructive name. In the recent past we've had the Storm of the Century, Superstorm Sandy, the Polar Vortex, countless Snowmaggeddons, and now...Godzilla El Nino. Weather-hypers couldn't just leave it be and call it a regular regular El Nino. It simply has to be a giant, radioactive, Japanese T-Rex of an El Nino (with a ready-made a theme song).

For the Northeast, he's not as scary as he looks.

The experts are comparing this winter's El Nino to the El Nino of 1997-98, which was also very strong. If we do a little historical sleuthing and look at the snow totals for Albany and Boston that year, we only have bad news to report. Albany hit 52.3 inches (slightly below average) for the season, while Boston had a meager 25.6 inches. These 97-98 outcomes would be consistent with the current prevailing thinking that we're in for a warmer-than-average winter with higher-than-normal precipitation. The forecast also upholds the idea that inland, which tends to stay cooler, would receive more snow than the coast, which would see higher temperatures and more rain-only events.

As for real snow (instead of just talk about the potential for snow), we're still in a negative pattern. The temps will feel more wintry this week, but we're only looking at the mid-40s for midday high temperatures. Evenings will get into the high 20s. As for precipitation, we could see rain Tuesday night into Wednesday but not very much. We're looking at the beginning of the week of December 7th as the potential first measurable snowfall for the month.

Keep your fingers crossed that the weather pattern will turn and we'll see colder weather for the Northeast.

End of November Forecast

With the sighting of a few flurries today in and around the GSD Home Office, we thought it was high time to check in again with our faithful flake followers and provide insight about when we might see our first legitimate snow storm.

As you've no doubt observed, it's been a very warm November, which doesn't bode well for a snowy winter. We also have a strong el Nino in play for this winter, which should translate to above average temperatures as well as more precipitation than normal. Unfortunately, we see no reason to revise the forecast we made this summer for only a handful of big snow storms in 2015-16 with many storms shifting from snow to mixed precip to all rain.

The 3-month forecast for temperatures. Brown/orange means higher temps December, January, and February.

As for the rest of this month, we're still looking at plenty of days with high temps in the 50s and low 60s. There are a few signs out there that we will see genuinely winter conditions at the end of the month (Thanksgiving weekend). We will have some rain later next week, and also Thanksgiving Day could be wet, which is less than ideal.

Don't get too down in the dumps, snow lovers. It will snow eventually--we live in New England after all. We might get a freak large storm before the New Year (fingers crossed!), but it looks like this year that the bulk of our snow will fall in February.

First Snow of the Season!

Early in the day on Sunday, a keen-eyed GSD staff member witnessed the first snow of the season in Williamstown. Technically, it was the first graupel of the season, but graupel is a type of snow, so it qualifies.

What, you are wondering, is graupel?

Take away the artificial coloring and you've got yourself some graupel.

If you've ever had the pleasure of eating Dippin' Dots, then you know exactly what graupel is. Or, if you've ever seen the innards of a bean bag chair, then you know what graupel is.

Graupel is a snowflake with water droplets frozen to it. It looks a lot like soft hail. That's the kind of snow that fell in Williamstown on Sunday. Despite the temperatures in the upper 30s, the graupel briefly began to accumulate on grassy surfaces before the sun came back out and melted the graupel away.

Those hoping that the flurries today might mean a bigger snowstorm is right around the corner? You are flat out of luck. Temps will moderate over the next few days and we'll see more seasonably appropriate thermometer readings in the 50s and low 60s for the next ten days or so.

We'll certainly keep you updated when the first threat of measurable snow works its way into the forecast.

Chance of Snow This Week

Hello, Flake Followers. We're back! There aren't any storms in the forecast, but our weekly perusal of the long-range forecast turned up this curious little item. Take a gander:

We draw your attention to that purple section at the bottom. What it means is that right now we have a better than 50% chance of seeing our first flakes of the season late Saturday night. Yes!

We're not super optimistic that we'll see snow showers at that time--and most of us will be snug in our beds when and if the showers come through--but the fact that we're even writing these sentences means that the measurable, snow day-inducing storms of the 2015-16 Winter Season are not so far around the corner. Rejoice, rejoice.

Until we meet again...

Long Range Forecast -- Winter 2015-16

Hello, Greylock Snow Day followers and supporters!

We're about to enter our sixth year of operations (already?), and we are more than thrilled to be your one-stop shop for un-filtered and un-hyped snow day forecasts for the upcoming winter season and--hopefully--many more winters to come. We're happy to serve the Berkshire County area as your winter weather brokers.

Let's recap 2014-15. As awesome as the winter of 2014-15 was for the eastern part of the state, it really was only slightly above average for the Berkshires and its surrounding environs. Our grand total of 72.8 inches at the GSD Home Office was just about perfect. We had a few brutal cold stretches in there, but overall the storms came frequently and provided enough drama to make the winter months pass by in a heartbeat. Let's hope for more of the same in 2015-16!

With the upcoming school year just a few days away, it's a suitable time for the official 2015-16 long-range forecast. Really, this is a fool's errand given how much spread we see in the long-range forecasts, but we're only a few months away from the possibility of our first major winter snow storm, so why not check in with what the weather gurus are saying for the upcoming winter?

If you've been paying any attention to the weather news at all, you know that all the media outlets have been playing up an historically strong El Nino winter for the US this winter. At one point we heard the expression "Godzilla El Nino" being floated out there, but what the heck does that even mean for our winter weather in Western New England this upcoming year?

Historically, a strong El Nino means that New England is in for an above average winter in terms of moisture (potentially good) and an above average winter in terms of temperatures (potentially bad). If this is indeed the scenario that pans out, here's what the GSD Staff is predicting: numerous big storms that start out as snow and then turn to sleet then quickly change to rain. Snow will be heavier and wetter this this year, and snow totals will be average (60 inches) or slightly below average. As for snow days, we think we'll see only a few (2-3 days off), but the 2-hour delay will be a popular choice for Superintendents this upcoming winter because of the uncertainty of the timing of the shift from snow to sleet to rain. We could see 5 or 6 two-hour delays this winter when it's all said and done.

We look forward to providing updates as the fall as the weather events necessitate. Until then, think wintry thoughts all ye followers of the flake! We'll be in touch soon.

Power Outage Delays for May 19

This isn't exactly our territory, but we have a few 2-hour delays to report this morning due to a widespread power outage in Northern Berkshire county. We'll update as is necessary this morning. 

National Grid expects power to be restored by 7:30 AM. 

2-Hour Delay:

BArT

Hancock

Mount Greylock

Williamstown

Florida

North Adams

Delays for Thursday

We do have a ground-coating of sleet and snow at the GSD Home Office. Two percent on the True North Confidence Meter was just enough for these districts:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Mohawk Trail
Florida

We don't expect to see any more delays from other districts as the precipitation has moved to our east. We will see another round of showers and even moderate rain later this morning with the chance for even more showers increasing throughout the afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday Night

It's possible that this is the last time we'll report news of this nature for the 2014-15 winter season, but one never knows, does one.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 8 PM to 8 AM tomorrow. Spotty snow and sleet have been forecasted. Despite the upgrade from a Special Weather Statement to the WWA, we at GSD still do not think we'll have any delays or problems tomorrow morning with the commute to school.

A quick glance at the radar reveals we're are just on the edge of heavier precipitation. Any snow or sleet that falls in the Berkshires tonight will be light. Higher elevations could net an inch or two by tomorrow morning. Lower terrain could see a coating on fields and lawns. We'll put a 2% chance of a delay on the ol' True North Confidence Meter, but even that might be an ambitious prediction.

We think it will be more of a miss than a hit, but consider yourselves properly alerted and warned.

Mixed Precipitation Threat for Wednesday

The last patch of snow just melted yesterday at the GSD Home Office, but that doesn't mean we're out of harm's way just yet.

Be aware that a touch of winter could be in the air this afternoon and evening as forecasters are eyeing the potential of a period of sleet and/or freezing rain. No advisories have been announced just yet.

If it does sleet, it will likely fall this afternoon (after 2 PM) or much later tonight (8 PM). We don't foresee any major travel problems associated with this brief storm.

On a more positive note, the weekend is looking dry, and on Sunday we could hit the mid 60s.

Week of March 30: Snow Still In the Forecast

It's nearly April and we're still seeing plenty of opportunities in the forecast for snow events. All of the upcoming chances for snow will be minor and not impact school in any way, but they are still worth writing about.

Winter will just not quit. Here's what's in store this week:

*A chance of half-inch or so tonight (Sunday). The overnight snow could resemble the snow we received on Saturday. Roads will be fine (except in the higher elevation spots) but we could see it stick on the grassy/snowy areas.

*Thursday night we will see a chance at rain or snow. This threat is less clear, and if we get precipitation at all, it will be very light.

*Friday night into Saturday could be snowy. Even though the temps will hit 50+ degrees on Friday, we could see snow Friday night into Saturday morning. The models are in disagreement about this surge of moisture, so you'll have to check in later in the week for more details about it.

*Easter Sunday looks cold but precipitation free.

We still believe there will be at least one more close call for a delay or snow day before Winter is finally over.  With temps staying below average this long into March, that threat of a potent spring snow storm is higher than most years. It looks like we'll have at least two more weeks of this cooler than normal weather before a major warm-up in mid-April.

Keep those galoshes handy this week!

A Little Snow Is On the Way

We have had a quiet, cold week, but why not end it with a little snow?

A coastal low will make its way into our area that will leave its wintery mark. It will not be a direct hit, but eventually snow will overspread our area by tomorrow night.

We have to admit we've been a little distracted from all the March Madness bracketology lately, but we promise you we've been monitoring the weather situation. And Old Man Winter just does not want to give it up for the season.

Here's what we expect tomorrow...

Three inches in South County and one or two up North by the GSD Home Office. Driving around tomorrow night will be slow. Tomorrow's ride back home from school could be messy for South County schools. It should hold off for all schools north of Pittsfield after the afternoon bus runs. It's possible some schools in South County will cancel afternoon activities.

We think this timing map from Accuweather is mostly accurate.

Other than tomorrow night's snow, we see no big storms out there that will reach our area. If you're tired of winter, then you won't like the forecast. Next week is slated to be unseasonably cool once again. Skiers, on the other hand, are rejoicing and should be able to get another week of their sport in (at least).

Have a great weekend and travel safely tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Freezing Rain Advisory/Late Week Snow?

Don't be surprised tomorrow morning if you find a light glaze of ice on your car and especially on your driveway. All of Berkshire County has been issued a Freezing Rain Advisory. This advisory might be more of a precaution than an out-and-out concern, but it's good to be forewarned, isn't it? We don't think it's going to slow down too many folks.

Any precipitation we see this weekend should be in the form of rain. We'll see light rain overnight--thus the potential for freezing rain--and that rain could be with us through noon. There will be a letup in the afternoon, then we have another round of showers in store for Saturday night. We could see a few snow showers mix in Saturday night and Sunday morning. The threat of a Sunday night storm that we mentioned earlier in the week is no longer a threat.

So, we're looking at a fairly gray and wet weekend, with around average temperatures, but we are not expecting heavy rain, which is good for any flooding concerns people might have.

Despite the mild weather we've experienced (alright, enjoyed) this past week, temps are heading south again for next week. We'll be in the 30s most of the week, which is a few degrees below normal. Nights will be cold (upper teens and low 20s).

We do have the potential for a Thursday/Friday snowstorm--the temperatures will be cold enough to support an all snow event. Right now it's a coastal low that looks like it will miss us to the south, but the potential exists for a more northerly track, which would impact our area.

Anybody up for more snow?

End of Weekend Storm?

It's almost blasphemous to admit it, but that bright sun sure felt good today. We'll have a few more enjoyably mild, sunny days this week to enjoy. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s during the day and in the 20s (on average) at night. The only precipitation we see this week is a small chance of a brief rain shower Tuesday night.

As for snow, we actually have some news to report. We've heard rumblings about the possibility of the development of a coastal storm on Sunday that could very well impact school on Monday. It's way too early to give you any solid info on this storm, but because this week will be so dreadfully dull on the weather front, at least it's something to pique or interest.

If it does develop in our favor, we think there could be moderate to heavy precipitation. What form that precipitation takes is a mystery at this point in the proceedings.

We'll have much more to report in a few days when the computer models start to give us more consistent information. Perhaps this will be Winter's last gasp?

Have We Turned the Corner?

While the South and Mid-Atlantic had a very active winter weather week, the Berkshires were uncharacteristically quiet, which could signal that Old Man Winter has started packing his things and will be vacating our area soon.

We still saw the temperature go below zero a few times this week, but the storm pattern has definitely changed and quieted down for us.

We're hearing from most of our sources that temperatures in March are expected to be normal or above average for the month. For the Berkshires, high 30s is the norm right now; high 40s is the expectation by the end of the month.

Given the forecast, you may actually see the grass on your lawn in two or three weeks. Temperatures are forecasted to get above freezing for the next ten days, and we do not have any major storms in the pipeline. Conditions are looking very, very good for the maple syrup producers.

You know that we'll see at least one more significant snowfall before it's all said and done, and that storm could come as late as May 1. With the winter we've had, we will not at all be surprised if we get one more doozy of a storm.

WWA Shortened

The first flakes of our fast-moving storm started falling around 3:45 at the GSD Home Office, about 45 minutes earlier than we predicted this morning. We do know that it started much earlier than that down in South County, which caused some schools to cancel after school activities.

Expect light and even moderate snow throughout the night. The bulk of the snow will wrap up before midnight. We should get 2-3" by the time it ends.

Bad news for the delays tomorrow. The NWS shortened the Winter Weather Advisory period by four hours. Instead of it ending at 10 AM tomorrow, it now ends at 6. What this really means is that most of the moisture (the sleet and freezing rain) should come to an end around 3 AM. Town road crews will have plenty of time to deal with this mess.

Temps could hit 40 tomorrow. Black ice could be a problem tomorrow evening and also Thursday morning. There may also be a period of light snow in South County Thursday morning, which could complicate the morning commute for schools south of Lee.

Drive safely this evening.

Snow This Afternoon

Based on our evaluation of the current radar images, we should see snow start to fall around 4:30 this afternoon, give or take a half hour.

The 6:30 AM radar. The snow (blue) and sleet (pink) are moving in an east-north-east direction. We do not like the absence of moisture behind the sleet, which is why we've lowered snow totals.

Similar to Sunday's storm, this one is not particularly well organized. The NWS is forecasting 2-5" for the Berkshires, with higher amounts in North County and lower totals in South County. Still, we won't be surprised if the actual range we eventually see in the Berkshires is between 1 and 3 inches.

Temps will warm up throughout the day into the mid to upper 20s, then settle a few degrees after the sun sets. Then we'll see a gradual rise of the temperatures after midnight, which is when the period of sleet and freezing rain will occur. Forecasters do not project a lot of ice with this storm--a tenth of an inch or less--but that's certainly enough for road crews to have to treat the roads.

Because we think snow totals will be fairly low with this storm, we're lowering our True North Confidence Meter right now. We still think there will be a few delays tomorrow, but fewer than half of Berkshire schools will benefit from a delay.

Also, we are more confident that high school tournament basketball games will be played this evening as scheduled.

2014-15 True North/GSD Writing Contest Winners (Finally!)

[For details on the current weather situation for tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning, click here.]

The verdict is in. After months of deliberation, the Staff at GSD has finally reached consensus. We are pleased to announce that this year's winner of the True North Financial/Greylock Snow Day Writing Competition 2014-15 is avid follower Katie Parks, a junior at Taconic High School. Here is her delightful song parody, and we look forward to revisiting it in the upcoming years to cheer us up:

We also have awarded prizes to two Runners Up. Mount Greylock seniors Eric Hirsch and Ian Brink used "Let It Snow" for their winning tune and comic video, and Mount Greylock seniors Andrew Whitaker and Jake and Sam Kobrin based their creatively revised lyrics on Band Aid's "Feed the World." All three winners exceeded our expectations.

We thank all participants in the competition for their entries, and we look forward to challenging your writing skills again next year!

Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday Night & Wednesday Morning

We alerted you to a midweek weather disturbance a few days ago, and it looks like the storm will impact our area starting tomorrow afternoon.

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of the Berkshires starting at 3 PM. We like the fact that the Advisory ends at 10 AM Wednesday, which means we could see problematic driving conditions during the morning commute.

Before you get too excited, though, check out this graphic from Paul Caiano over at Channel 13 in Albany:

You can see that this storm is not slated to produce a robust snow total. We really hope the Euro model (ECMWF) comes through. If we can get four inches and add in some early morning ice, then we'll see many delays in the county for Wednesday morning.

Don't forget that ice storms are some of the hardest to predict. A half degree change in the temperature or a 30 mile change in the storm track can make a huge difference. We'll do our best to try to provide a realistic prediction for Wednesday morning.

[UPDATED]

Initially we felt confident that this minor storm would not postpone the high school basketball tournament games down at UMass, but now we're not so sure. The Advisory now includes Amherst, so those games are now in jeopardy of being moved to another night. Tournament officials would be wise to wait until tomorrow morning to get a better sense of the timing and severity of the snow.

Delay(s) for Monday

Yes, we have at least one delay in Berkshire County this morning. Should we get more, we'll update the list below. But road crews have been hard at work throughout the night and they seem to have most roads under control.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Florida

As for the midweek storm, we're liking delays for schools on Wednesday more and more. We'll see 3-4 inches of snow Tuesday night then several hours of icing--sleet and freezing rain--from 3 AM to 7 AM. We will likely see a Winter Weather Advisory issued for Berkshire County, but not a Winter Storm Watch or Warning.

Complicating matters is a scheduled half-day for teacher professional development on Wednesday for some schools in the county.

Much more to come on our snow/ice storm later tonight.

Sunday Afternoon Storm Update

The snow started falling earlier than expected today--around 10 AM at GSD Headquarters--but it has since stopped. It will resume later this afternoon, with about 2-3" the likely outcome for most in the County.

We are getting some coastal development from this storm, which means that South County could now be the beneficiaries of a higher snowfall total. Up to 6" is now predicted for those south of I-90.

Looking at the radar, we've noticed the storm is not particularly well developed. The snow is starting to fill in more as it gains some energy from the ocean, but this storm isn't simply going to be a big snow maker. We will lower the True North Confidence Meter for delays as a result.

As for Tuesday night's storm, we're almost certain now that there will be mixed precipitation involved. So even though snow totals will not be that high--3-5" expected--the addition of ice at dawn on Wednesday could certainly generate many delays for the day.

We'll keep you posted with any new developments for both of our storms.

Here's a some fascinating data from NWS Albany:

We actually had less snow than an average February, about 12" fewer than normal. But the cold temps more than made up for the loss of those inches. What we just experienced this past February is one of the coldest months ever. We may not experience another month with such sustained cold in our lifetimes. But, with climate change causing more and more extreme and anomalous weather events, perhaps next winter we'll experience an even colder month. Or this summer we'll have the hottest July ever. Who is to say these days.

Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday/Monday

It isn't much of a surprise at all, but the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of the Berkshires starting tomorrow.

The Advisory period begins at noon on Sunday and ends at 7 AM Monday. That's not a great sign for a full snow day on Monday (too early), but delays are very much a possibility.

The GSD Staff is still confident we'll see 4-5" with this storm, with possibly 6" in Northern Berkshire.

We'll have more info tomorrow about the exact timing of the storm.

Messy Week Ahead

Happy weekend, snowhounds!

We have an exciting period ahead of us. Our Sunday storm looks on the light-to-moderate side, and then there's a big mess (snow, sleet, freezing rain) headed our way between Tuesday and Thursday.

Currently, the models are suggesting about a third of an inch of liquid for the Sunday storm. With the cold air still in place and plenty (!) of snowpack on the ground, we'll see all snow with this storm. A third of inch should translate to 4-5" of snow. The problem with this storm is the timing. Alas, it looks like the snow will end in the early morning hours of Monday (1-2 AM). Delays are possible, and the GSD Staff has reached consensus that a full snow day Monday is unlikely.

Our snow forecast though 6 PM on Monday. The Berkshires is safely in the 4-6" range.

The midweek storm, however, will be a frustrating one for us to predict. There will be a long period of moisture, and we'll just have to see if there's enough concentration of snow or mixed precip at the right time to change the length of a school day. Wednesday will be the day if we are to get a delay or cancellation.

Enjoy the relatively mild temps this weekend, and look for the snow to start some time in the mid-afternoon on Sunday.

Snow Storms Around the Corner

We've been quiet the last few days because the forecast has been quiet. But that is about to change.

We have two storms in our near future. We could see moderate snow Sunday night into Monday, and then Tuesday into Wednesday we have a possible snow and mixed precipitation storm headed our way.

The Sunday/Monday storm is more likely, but it has less moisture associated with it. The Euro model is predicting up to half an inch of liquid, which could mean 6" of snow for us. That's certainly enough to alter the length of the day on Monday, if not cancel school. This storm looks better for North County than South County, but we'll see if it shifts in the next few days.

There's so much uncertainty about the Tuesday/Wednesday storm that we're not going to spend too much time on it right now. We'll see if it develops, and if it does, it will be much more potent than the piddling 4-6" we will likely see on Sunday.

Watch for the return of subzero cold Friday and Saturday mornings. Bundle up!

Freeze Delays

[UPDATED 9:18 PM]

It's seems like we've written this sentence about five times already this winter, but (we think) we really mean it this time. We could see the coldest morning of the season tomorrow.

The NWS has issued a Wind Chill Advisory through 6 AM tomorrow morning. What's funny is that there really isn't going to be that much wind by the morning hours. It's just going to be that cold.

It will be cold this week, but a warm-up has been predicted for March.

We expect the low tomorrow to happen around 6 or 7 AM when we could see temps between -12 and -18 degrees. A little wind will actually prevent temperatures from falling too low. If the wind stops in your area, it could get to -18. If it gets that low, it could break the daily record.

With temps this low, bus engines could be impacted. Several school districts have already made the decision to start the day later to let everything warm up a few degrees.

We'll start a list here and hope to update it throughout the evening. This will be a very hit-or-miss decision depending on the mood of your superintendent, so not all Berkshire County schools will be impacted.

TWO-HOUR FREEZE DELAY:

Southern Berkshire

Hancock

Richmond

Pittsfield
Berkshire Hills
Central Berkshire
Mount Greylock
Lanesborough
Williamstown
BArT

Snow On The Way for Saturday Night

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of the Berkshires due to an approaching snow and mixed precipitation storm. The Advisory period begins at 5 PM Saturday and ends at 10 AM Sunday, so it is a fast-moving storm.

Expect snow to begin between 4 PM and 5 PM. You might see a stray snow shower before that time, but the bulk of the accumulating snow will really start to fall around 6 PM. We expect most of the county to get 4" or 5", with the higher elevations getting closer to 8". Snow totals could be lower in South County if sleet mixes in, as it is expected to.

Image courtesy of Accuweather.

Had this storm been on a school night, we would be looking at widespread snow days for the County.

This storm should be wrapping up with snow showers and some drizzle (liquid) in the middle of the day on Sunday.

After this storm comes through, the cold air returns, and it looks like a relatively quiet week coming up on the snow/storm front.

Wind Chill Warning and Weekend Storm

We have to keep this brief as the bulk of of the GSD Staff is on the road this weekend for various personal and meteorological engagements...

Earlier today the NWS has upgraded the Wind Chill Watch to a Wind Chill Warning through 10 AM on Friday. High temps won't be very high on Friday. We might max out at 8 degrees (on the plus side). With the 10 to 20 mph winds in the morning, it will feel like -10 to -20 tomorrow morning.

The storm for the weekend is starting to take a shape. We'll see snow around sunset on Saturday with 3-5" by Sunday morning. On Sunday, we'll see warm air work its way into the Berkshires and convert the snow to sleet and a freezing drizzle by Sunday afternoon. Temps could get into the upper 30s on Sunday, easily the highest we've seen since December. Driving conditions will be below par on Sunday due to the snow and mixed precipitation.

School will go on as scheduled on Monday, but we do like what we're hearing about a storm for Tuesday into Wednesday. The Euro model is bullish on this storm, but that one has not been a great indicator as of late.

Despite our absence from the GSD Home Office, we're on top of the weekend and midweek storms, and we'll update as soon as we can.

Alberta Clipper Visits Tonight; Messy Weekend Forecast

Be on the lookout, Flake Followers, for a little light snow tonight into tomorrow morning. We'll see up to 3" or 4" in the higher terrains with this minor system, but most of us in the County will see an inch. There's a slight chance for a delay for Central Berkshire tomorrow, but it's nothing to pin your hopes on.

On Thursday, temps will be half of what they were today (15 degrees for a high), and we might see a few potent snow squalls as the AC hits the coast and strengthens. There was just a hint of spring in the air today, wasn't there.

Friday and Saturday mornings will be brutally cold in advance of a (relative) warm-up and weekend snow storm. The storm is going to come in from the Ohio Valley, which means for the first time in a very long time we are talking about the potential for mixed precipitation for Sunday. There's a lot of model disagreement at this point, but the consensus is that we'll see a moderate snow storm starting later in the day on Saturday and ending Sunday night.

We doubt it will impact school on Monday, but it will definitely slow down people's travel plans if they're coming back from vacation.

Classic winter storm set-up. Thanks to Accuweather for the graphic.

The GSD Staff will now turn its attention to this weekend storm; we'll have more specific info tomorrow.

More Cold; Nuisance Snow

Sadly, the big storm we were hoping for tonight into tomorrow has gone south and is impacting southeastern New England. We could see a stray snow shower from it this morning--especially in South County--but otherwise it will be a cloudy and cold day with temps shooting up to the lower 20s. Get out the shorts!

Sorry, Central Berkshire and private school students--you will have full days of school the rest of the week. There's a very slim chance of a freeze delay Thursday morning, but really that's just us trying to give you some hope for a shorter day at some point.

As for snow, we could see the aforementioned showers today, an inch Wednesday night, another inch Thursday night, and then over the weekend up to 6" on Saturday afternoon. The European model is predicting between .25" and .5" of liquid. The temps will be warmer over the weekend--low 30s--so this storm would bring a wetter, heavier snow with snow-to-liquid ratios more in the 10:1 range.

Currently, there is no big warm-up in sight. We'll get into the 30s this weekend, but then it's right back to the low 20s for highs during the week of the 23rd. Punxsutawney Phil has been spot on with his forecast so far.

Brace for the Cold

The shot of snow we got from the coastal New England blizzard is now over. At the GSD Home Office, we have measured 4.1 inches of very fluffy powder.

Now all that's left to do is watch that thermometer as it creeps lower and lower over the evening hours. We will bottom out at -13 degrees on Monday morning. Egads.

The winds have picked up and there's significant blowing snow to deal with as you're out on the roads. Road conditions will be sub-optimal throughout the day because of the constant swirling snow.

This is what most of Boston looks like as of Sunday morning. Photo courtesy of The Boston Globe.

We have a Staff member in Boston this weekend to check out the blizzard. He reports about 9 inches of snow with wicked winds, as they say in those parts. (Gusts up to 65 mph are expected!) Getting around Boston is hard enough as it is without 5-foot snowbanks on both sides of the street. If you were thinking of heading to Beantown during vacation, you might want to wait until April vacation for that mission.

Back to the Berkshires...

Most of the computer models are taking the Tuesday/Wednesday storm out to sea, but a recent model run has moved the storm more northerly. Hopefully that trend will continue for all those Central Berkshire students who have to go to school on Wednesday. We don't have a lot of confidence that this storm will pan out, but we believe in the power of positive thinking and will do our best to get it to our area.

Take care in the cold today and tomorrow!

Advisories and Warnings

You may be on vacation but the GSD Staff is not. We have two developments to contend with that will impact your activities over the next few days.

Before we start, here are some fun weather facts. If Boston gets one inch of snow today, it will be the snowiest month ever since they started recording snow fall data. (They're supposed to get 10-14" tonight.) As for Albany, it is experiencing the 3rd coldest February on record, with brutal cold expected for the next week.

As for snow...

We have a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires that begins at 10 AM. Snow will overspread our area from an Alberta Clipper starting between noon and 1 PM. Snow will be light at first, but it could get to moderate levels later in the day. One meteorologist in Albany dropped the phrase "explosive cyclogenesis" on us. For snow lovers that's a great expression, but that cyclogenesis--when a storm really starts to expand its precipitation and strengthen--will mostly happen in the east, which is why blizzard warnings are now in effect for most of the Massachusetts coast.

Even though we won't get much snow--3 inches is about right--we could see blizzard conditions for stretches tonight because of the blowing snow. White out conditions are likely tonight. The bad stretches on route 7 will be particularly bad tonight.

Thanks, Accuweather.

As the snow moves out by daybreak on Sunday, the coldest air of the season moves in along with strong winds. A Wind Chill Warning has been issued for the Berkshires that starts at 10 AM Sunday and ends at noon on Monday. The worst of it will be Sunday afternoon and evening when temps are in the single digits and the winds are howling away with gusts up to 35 mph. As we've been saying all week, find something to do indoors. But when you have to take Fluffy or Fido out for their morning business on Monday, make it snappy and make sure no skin is exposed.

As for the Tuesday/Wednesday storm, some of the models are pushing it out to sea to our south. A few are still holding on and giving us a moderate snow storm. It seems to be behaving like Thursday's storm, which ultimately really wasn't a storm. We'll let you know more tomorrow.

Enjoy today's snow, and for those who celebrate it, Happy Valentine's Day.

Vacation Snow and Cold

Happy Vacation, everyone. It doesn't quite seem like we deserve a full week off after all the snow days, but who's really complaining? We know the graduating class of 2015 certainly is not.

The temps didn't go quite as low as some forecasters thought. We had a -1 reading at daybreak at the GSD Home Office. The wind was strong there for a while in the overnight hours, but now it has settled down. And Superintendents are downright tired of calling in delays and cancellations, which also explains why there were no freeze delays this morning.

Image courtesy of the Weather Channel.

The big news is the eastern New England blizzard, which could throw a few inches our way out west. So, for this storm the state financial and meteorological landscapes are very much the same. Zing!

We could see up to 6" of the lightest snow you'll ever shovel starting tomorrow afternoon and into Sunday. With any winds, though, we'll have white out conditions, which shouldn't be taken lightly, especially for those new drivers out there.

Sunday will be unpleasant. Just stay inside. Trust us on this one.

And finally, mucho uncertianto about the big storm for Tuesday and Wednesday. We still have our full attention on it, but the computer models are providing so much variety in their forecasts that it's hard to synthesize them into an intelligible prediction. We'll know much more by Sunday.

Wild Weather Ahead

We have a wild few days ahead of us.

First, let's deal with the possibilities of freeze delays tomorrow. Yes, a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect. Temps will be below zero and winds will be gusty, taking wind chill values into the -15 to -25 degree range. Similar to last Friday, we think a few schools will delay the start of the day because of those forecasted conditions. We see that Pittsfield has made buses available for all walkers for Friday, which means that they are likely to have a full day of school.

These are the high temperatures for these days. Thanks to NWS Albany for this great graphic.

As for Saturday, temps could be rather seasonable (high teens), but we do have a threat of a 4-6" snowfall for Saturday afternoon and night. This storm popped up suddenly. A low pressure system will zoom in from Ontario and then set up camp on the coast. With the counterclockwise rotation of the storm, it is expected to pull warmer Atlantic Ocean moisture back over the incredibly cold air that is in place over New England. With very high snow to liquid ratios expected from this mixture, it won't surprise us to see a quick 6" from this storm in the Berkshires. The farther you head east, the higher the snow totals. Boston is looking at another 10-12".

If you have big plans for Saturday night, you will want to keep an eye on this storm as it could make for dangerous driving conditions, especially if the winds persist and blow the snow around.

Sunday is still expected to be very cold--low single digits for highs--and Monday morning's low temperatures could be record-breaking.

Finally--and the GSD Staff is very excited about this news--the computer models are setting up the possibility for a blockbuster level snowstorm for Tuesday night into Wednesday. The North American model is less aggressive with the forecast; the Euro model is predicting winter weather doom. This storm will come out of the deep south, so it does have the potential to develop into a full-fledged nor'easter. Hold on to your hats, Flake Followers.

Even though it will be vacation week, the GSD Staff still will be hard at work and will provide storm updates throughout the weekend and following week.

Arctic Blast for the Weekend; Possible Storm

After a nice few days of winter normalcy--some sun, a few high clouds, temps in the mid 20s and lower 30s--we're about to see a drastic change.

The storm we had been talking about for Thursday has now been put in the fizzle folder. We will see light snow and snow showers starting tonight. The best the Berkshires will see is 2.5 inches, but that's it. The snow fall rate will not be high enough to generate any delays. We'll leave a small percentage on the True North Confidence Meter, but all students in Berkshire County should expect a full day of school tomorrow.

From the NWS Albany Office (for Monday morning)

Starting tomorrow, we're going to see some of the coldest air we've had in these parts in years. We should be below zero to start the day on Friday, and then it will warm up to a balmy 8 degrees for the high for the day. Saturday will feel like spring is just around the corner with temps approaching 20 degrees.

And then there's Sunday.

Sunday's high will be 2 degrees, with a 10 to 20 mph wind kicker. Some spots in the Berkshires might not get above zero for the day. A Wind Chill Advisory or Warning is likely for Sunday into Monday morning, when temps could drop to -15 degrees, -30 with the wind chill. It looks like Sunday will be a very good idea to get the wood stove going early and to stay indoors.

With vacation week upon us (for most), we're not too concerned about the long-range forecast, but we are hearing a few rumblings about a signficant snow storm for Saturday night into Sunday and then one on Tuesday. Saturday's storm could bring us 6-10". (We do not like the tone of that sound you just made. Don't even think about wanting this winter to end!)

Bundle up! And we'll have more about the Saturday storm when we learn a few more details.

Delays for Tuesday

Just a few two-hour delays have been called in from towns bordering Berkshire County. No surprises here. So far, here's what we have:

Berlin
New Lebanon
Mohawk Trail

Storm Ringo Winds Down; Bitter Cold's Around the Corner

Storm Ringo more or less got the job done, and it's now in the wind-down stage. We've seen reports of 7" in Pittsfield, 13" in Dalton, and 10" in Hancock. At GSD Headquarters, we measured 8.1" of granular snow.

We've got our eye on another clipper/coastal low for Thursday. It looks like it will start in the overnight hours Wednesday and continue throughout the day on Thursday. We'll probably see 3" or so, but some forecasters are already projecting 3-6 inches. We could see a Winter Weather Advisory on Thursday from this latest storm. As for school, we'll likely see full days.

It turns out it will be very cold on Friday morning, with lows in the negative single digits. Highs on Friday will be in the positive single digits only for negative double digits to make their appearance Saturday morning. That's a lot of cold digits.

Here's an attention-getting quotation from NWS Albany:

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS AGAIN WITH THE
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL NOT HELP THE COLD SITUATION
EITHER...AS DANGEROUSLY LOW AND LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS LOOK TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

We don't know about you, but we at GSD are not big fans of the words "life threatening" when they're attached to cold temperatures. It might be good to plan a lot of indoor activities from Friday through Monday.

More on Thursday's snow event as we get closer to it.

Storm Ringo Update

If it's a Monday in February 2015, then that must mean it's a snow day for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Enjoy these heady, snowy times--they don't come around too often.

Snow will continue in a steady fashion until about 1 PM. There could be a few snow showers this afternoon and evening but they won't be anything to worry about. Road conditions will improve around midday. We'll see another 3-4 inches by the time it stops. The snow is not quite as light and fluffy as the last two storms. There's warmer air above the surface air which has made for a more granular snow. Shovelling it will not be as easy as the past two storms.

Courtesy of Albany's WNYT, Channel 13.

We do not feel there will be any delays or snow days tomorrow morning. Other communities well to our east will have the double snow day. Boston has already called off school for Tuesday. Boston is up to 8 snow days for winter 2014-15.

The evil words "shorten April vacation" are starting to be uttered. We do not like this trend. But we also heard on Boston's public radio outlet this morning that Gov. Baker is considering a one-year waiver for school's ability to meet 990 hours of instructional time. Nothing is set in stone yet; we'll have much more on these developments in future posts.

The next snow event should occur in the early morning hours Thursday and into Thursday midday. It will be very light--one or two inches--and should not impact the length of the day on Thursday, but we do have our eye on it.

Alas, our freeze delay chance for Friday is not going to happen. We'll still see temps in the -12 to -16 range but not until Saturday morning, which is the first day of February break.

Enjoy the day!

This Just In...

SNOW DAYS for MONDAY:

North Adams
Clarksburg
Hancock
Richmond
Florida
Mohawk Trail
Berkshire Country Day
Southwest Vermont SU (Mt. Anthony)
Southern Berkshire
Central Berkshire
Adams-Cheshire
Berkshire Hills
Pittsfield
Lenox
BArT
Mt. Greylock
Lanesboro
Williamstown
BCC
Pine Cobble
Lee

McCann

When we first started GSD, we devised a formula that factored in the timing, the amount of projected snow fall, the possibility for ice, and the mindsets of the Superintendents. Little did we know that we would have to take into account the Governer's decisions.

Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker has declared that all non-emergency state personnel stay home from work tomorrow. He has also suggested that all businesses let employees work from home tomorrow if they can. We don't know for certain if Charlie Baker expects the Berkshires to follow his decrees--[Gov. CB: Wait, that county out there isn't a part of Vermont?]--but I suppose some Superintendents ought to take his announcement into consideration.

Because of Governor Baker's announcement, we'll bump up the TNCM another few percentage points.

Just for fun. Here's a helpful image:

For those new to this map, we're in the 12-15" range. Certainly more than enough to cancel school.

Storm Ringo: Evening Report

Apparently, a few Superintendents have not read GSD today. They've called in the snow day already. Congrats to the students of those towns and districts. Ultimately, that might be the right decision, but it is a little premature, according to the GSD Staff.

We just took a brief tour of the roads in North County and route 7 is okay but not great. The snow is coming down in a very light fashion. If the snow continues in this way for the next 36 hours, we would understand why there will be widespread snow days tomorrow simply because road crews will not be able to keep up. That's probably going to be the case, but you never know what will or will not transpire overnight.

We're going to bump up the True North Confidence Meter a few notches only because Superintendents are already starting to cave like US cinema operators during The Interview scandal.

Here's the running tally.

SNOW DAY:

North Adams
Clarksburg
Hancock
Richmond
Florida
Mohawk Trail

[If you want actual weather details about the storm, read this post.]

Storm Ringo: Midday Update

**UPDATE: Snow Day for North Adams and Clarksburg tomorrow.** (5:01 PM)

Something about this storm has the feel of a bust. We've been going around and around on this storm at the GSD Home Office, and something about it just feels off.

Here's what we don't like:

1) We performed better than average and average on the last two storms. We're due for a "market correction."

2) The moisture isn't streaming in quite like we thought it might.

Perhaps the dry spell in the morning is throwing us off the scent, but it just doesn't feel as if the storm is organized enough--or will organize enough--to generate 12-18 inches of snow, as many forecasters are predicting.

Here's the current radar as of 2:45 PM:

That's a nice looking band of moderate snow. It is headed our way, but our concern is how narrow it is. If it jogs north or south at all by 50 miles, we could be out of luck in the Berkshires.

The storm is supposed to gain strength as a low pressure system moves to the coast, but it will not have nor'easter strength. We have less faith in the coastal portion of the snow storm now.

Right now we are thinking that we'll see about 3-4" from the band of snow you see above extending back to the Great Lakes. Then, as the coastal low strengthens later tonight, we'll see another 3-5". If the road crews do a good job, then we will see more delays than snow days for Monday.

Because so many schools have used 4 and 5 snow days already, Superintendents are going to be reluctant to call a snow day, especially with February break right around the corner. [Apparently this year some districts do not have a February break (Central Berkshire, for one), so those Superintendents might be feeling less pressure to have school.]

The one part of the forecast working for us is that snow is expected to fall throughout the day on Monday. If that forecast proves to be true, Superintendents will have no choice but to cancel school for the day.

The double snow day seems like a long shot right now, but we won't know until the coastal piece of the storm kicks in.

There's a very good chance that most schools will be closed tomorrow, but we just want to prepare you that Storm Ringo might end up in the 6-9 range, not the 10-14 or 14-18 range.

Storm Ringo is not a stone cold lead pipe lock.