Hot Start To 2021...(and by "hot" we mean "snowy")

Happy last day of 2020! Of course everything is going to magically return to normal at midnight tonight. 2021 is going to be the best!

We actually have good news on the snow front. Our somewhat dour prediction yesterday has brightened. We could see up to 6 inches of new snow for parts of the Berkshires by noon on Monday.

Friday's expected snow

The Friday night storm is minor, but there will be a period of all snow at its onset. Snow should start around 9 PM (south to north) and then change over to sleet and freezing rain by the morning. What is not clear is the timing of the changeover, which will impact how much snow piles up. NWS Albany is expecting 1-2 inches in South County where the changeover will occur sooner, and 2-3 inches in North County. Freezing rain and drizzle could extend to noon on Saturday.

We'll get a break from frozen precipitation for about 30 hours and then a coastal storm--a secondary low--will form and bring more snow to our area. The European model continues to show significant snowfall for the Berkshires--see below--while the North American model is now indicating some accumulation for the Berkshires but only 1-3 inches. 

We'll probably see these models meet in the middle somewhere, which means 3-5 inches by late morning Monday, with east-facing slopes in higher elevations getting the highest amounts. Cross country skiing should be able to resume on Monday.

A very assertive prediction from the European model for Sunday

Have a safe New Year's Eve celebration, and we'll have an update on both storms at some point on Friday morning.

Icy Night and Possible Weekend Snow

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires that will start this evening at 7 PM. The reason for the Advisory is the possibility for light icing to occur. It ends at 7 AM Thursday.

This is a relatively minor event and may amount to nothing. Some areas could pick up a dusting or half inch of snow as well as a 10th of an inch of ice. Travel could be difficult later this evening, but should not be impossible.

As for accumulating snow. As in get-out-the-snow-boots snow. As for wax-up-the-skis snow...we're still in a holding pattern. We might get a couple of inches Friday night into Saturday, and there is a small chance of a developing coastal storm for Sunday night. 

The European model is currently showing moderate snow (3 inches for the Friday night storm; 4-5 inches for the Sunday storm), but the North American model only shows an inch or two for Friday and a washout on Sunday. Unfortunately, the North American model seems to be more realistic as we simply won't have enough cold air in place for a big snow. We're not saying it's not possible but just unlikely.

The North American model is being stingy with the snow...

Certainly if the Euro model proves to be right, snow days and fully remote days are in the discussion for Monday.

Watch the ice tonight, and we'll watch for developments regarding the weekend storms.

High Wind Warning and a Flood Watch For Thursday Night/Friday

Old Saint Nick is going to have to make up time in other parts of the world on Thursday as he's going to find the sledding very tough in the Berkshires on the jolly fellow's Big Night.

NWS Albany has issued a Flood Watch and a High Wind Warning for Christmas Eve. Rain should not start until early afternoon, but it will pick up in intensity as we head into the overnight hours. Forecasters and models are still expecting 1-3 inches of rain by Friday afternoon which, coupled with melting snow, could create flooding conditions. Unusually--for this time of year, anyway--the temps will increase throughout Thursday night and will approach 60 degrees (!) by 8 AM Friday.

Perhaps an even bigger concern, though, is the wind. Things will really crank up Thursday evening with sustained winds over 20 mph and possible gusts between 50 and 60 mph. Power outages are a distinct possibility for the Berkshires overnight, which is less than ideal for us residents as well as the folks who have to attend to downed power lines.

The rain will taper to showers by midday, and then the temps will slowly start to fall. Because models are now expecting a slower decrease in the temperatures, there is less worry about flash freezing Friday afternoon. But that also means that we're less likely to get snow on the back end of the storm. So, by Saturday morning we'll be left with grassy yards that are half-soggy, half-frozen with maybe a patch of leftover snow here and there.

Fortunately, we will have two opportunities for snow next week to freshen up the place. The first will come Monday night with possibly a few inches in the evening and into Tuesday. The next opportunity will be toward the end of the week (Thursday/Friday). We're in an active period right now so the opportunities to get snow should keep coming.

Happy Holidays to everyone who reads GSD, and stay safe over the next few days!