Winter Storm Watch For Wednesday

It's much earlier than normal (a very good sign), but NOAA has already issued a Winter Storm Watch beginning at midnight Tuesday night and ending at 6 PM Wednesday.

We don't have much new news for Storm Charley (it's official), but everything is still on track. A threat of a changeover to mixed precipitation after noon on Wednesday is still a possibility, especially in South Berkshire County. The GSD Staff is in agreement that we'll see about 8" of snow from this event. At the very least we're looking at 5 or 6", which is still plenty to cancel school given the timing of this storm. Tuesday night events and activities will not be cancelled, as the storm will not start until 1 AM or so.

Be on the lookout for snow showers and even steadier snow in the South County. There's a nice swath of snow moving east-north-east to our south. This snow is not at all related to Storm Charley, but if we get an inch in SoCo, that could help delay any changeover to sleet/mixed precip on Wednesday. Still, at that point, the superintendent's decision will already have been made so it really doesn't matter that much if and when the changeover occurs.

We like this storm A LOT. We should start to see local forecasters snow total graphics this evening. We'll pass those on when we can.

Storm Charley is going to make hump day a snow day.

Snow Day for Wednesday?

Secure your valuables. Stock up on supplies. Make sure you know the whereabouts of your children and pets. Yes, we have a major winter storm headed our way for Wednesday!

This storm won't be a Snowmageddon or a Snowpocalypse, but all indications are telling us that we're in for a major snow event. 

If the models prove to be accurate--and we haven't seen such good early agreement from the models in several years--we are looking at a 6-10" storm for Wednesday. The best part of this storm from an "I really need a snow day" perspective is the timing. It is predicted to start shortly after midnight on Tuesday. Even if the storm speeds up by four hours or slows down by four hours, we are still well within the optimal time zone for school cancellation.

The forecasters see about three-quarters of an inch of liquid precipitation with this storm. The last time we discussed liquid-to-snow rations we were talking about exceptionally high ratios (15:1 and 20:1) because of the extreme cold. Because this storm will be warmer (high 20s, low 30s), we'll see ratios more along the lines of 10 or 12 to 1, which should give us about 8 inches of snow.

We have been hearing that the temperature will be lower than forecasters thought a few days ago, so there's now less of a risk for a changeover to mixed precipitation. If this storm stays as an all snow event and we get the predicted 1 inch of liquid, we will see those 8 inches of snow between the hours of 12 AM and 12 PM on Wednesday.

But--you knew this wouldn't be that easy--here's a note from GSD Staff member Debbie Downer:

Before you start making your plans for your day off on Wednesday, consider the following: 1) sometimes a thing really is too good to be true; 2) in general we have more busts than spot-on predictions; 3) we still have 57 hours to go; 4) the amount of predicted liquid is down from a few days ago.

We're not sure how much more information we'll be able to squeeze out and pass on to you in the next 36 hours (given the agreement of the computer models), but early Tuesday we'll start to get a good look at the radar and we'll know if this storm will deliver a wimpy jab or hard uppercut to the region.

(And, by the way, you may have to dig out again on Saturday or Sunday. Forewarned is forearmed.)

February 5 Storm Taking Shape

At the GSD Office we try to avoid being a part of the weather hype machine, but for the storm expected to hit us starting on Tuesday night and lasting through the day on Wednesday, it looks like  a major snow event is unavoidable. We haven't had a slam dunk in a while--there was plenty of uncertainty with storm Brooklyn--but right now a February 5 snow day almost appears to be a certainty.

Even though we're five days out from the arrival of this storm, the models are in agreement, and there do not seem to be too many variables in play that would turn the storm into a bust. Even though this storm could very well fizzle, we do not often see such calm agreement between models and forecasters at this early stage in the forecast.

So, first things first, we need a storm name and we need it fast. Vote early and often. We'll close down voting by midnight on Super Bowl Sunday.

Second, be prepared for snow showers changing to rain showers on Saturday. We won't see much accumulation. Sunday night we could see more snow showers as the fringe of a coastal low tries to force its way into our area. Temps will be mild, though, on Sunday. Monday looks calm before the clouds move in on Tuesday. Snow should start in the early evening hours on Tuesday. School and community events Tuesday night will likely not happen.

We're bullish on this storm, and we're feeling confident about it. You should never ever be surprised about any odd turn in the events when it comes to Berkshire weather, but you should head into this weekend knowing that a big weather event is headed our way for the midweek. And we're also hearing grumblings about another big storm for the week of Feb. 10. Remember, the typical storm pattern is that they come in threes about a week apart. Let's hope so!

Thank you, Accuweather.