2013-14 Winter Forecast & The Season's First Storm?

Welcome back, readers! Despite the absolutely lovely stretch of weather we've been enjoying this fall, we know the worm will turn at any point and we'll be bustling to find those sweaters, shovels, and snow boots tucked away in those corners of your homes and garages. In fact, we're going to see the temperatures nose southward this upcoming week and, without too much to get excited about, we could see our first flakes of the season. Hoo-ray!

The biggest recent weather news is that the Weather Channel announced its winter storm names that it will be using for the 2013-14 season, which is proof more positive than a narrow orange band 'round a wooly caterpillar that the first storm is around the corner.

Speaking of names...the GSD Staff had a long debate during our summer retreat on the beautiful shores of Lake Champlain about storm names. Should we jettison our naming system and go with The Weather Channel's? Around and around it went but ultimately we decided to keep our unique system. A) We enjoy receiving your input on names, and B) it gives us a good accounting of how many storms we end up having. Once again we remind you: female names for coastal storms; male names for storms that come out of the west (clipper-type systems). If a clipper system comes from the west and is expected to reform on the coast (a very typical pattern for us), we'll give it a female name. We will certainly acknowledge TWC's names, but our preferred storm names will be home grown.

But let's cut to the chase and get to the info you've all been waiting for. What kind of winter are we expecting for 2013-2014? Will we have the big fizzle of 2011-12? Will we have a normal winter, a la last year? Will 2013-14 just be one long blizztaculous snowmageddon? The early returns are in from all of our field experts and the word on the streets is we're in for--hold your collective breath now--an average winter with a slight chance of above average snowfall. Not exactly spine-tingling, is it?

First of all, what is an average winter? Around these parts, "average" means in the 50- to 60-inch range. Last year we Albany officially had 51.4 inches of snow (compared to 23.3 in 11-12 and 87.2 in 10-11). If we get 15" of snow in December, January, and February, and an outlier storm in November or March, we'll reach our average.

Unfortunately, the long-term forecast is indicating a very slow start to the winter for the Northeast. November will not feature the unseasonably warm weather we've been experiencing, but that dreaded warm weather is supposed to return for December.

At the moment, with all of our weather feelers out there, we don't see a stormy November or December in the offing. The good news is that there are indications that the second half of the winter will feature slightly above average moisture and slightly below average temperatures. More moisture + colder January and February temps = more snow. That's an equation even the most limited of math students can understand and one that the GSD Staff is embracing wholeheartedly. We think January and February are going to be exciting times indeed this year.

We wish we could announce the winter of 2013-2014 with trumpets, banners, and a pyrotechnics show, but Mother Nature will not be so munificent just yet. We are going to have to be patient this winter, as the really good storms will likely not materialize until 2014.

It's getting closer...and there are some rumblings that that swath of snow predicted for Northern New England will drop deeper into the mountainous regions of Western New England. Hey, that's us!

At the moment, though, we will hear "snow" and "snow showers" mentioned in the forecast for the middle of the week of Oct. 21st (see above). We'll certainly have our eye on this early storm to see if the snow area expands. Right now it looks like those lucky folks in the Adirondacks will be the ones seeing the first Northeast snow of the season.

Get those hats and mittens out--you're going to need them this week. And remember that you have to walk before you can run.

The Curious Case of Humidity Days at

The Berkshires never cease to amaze us. We have snow days. We have ice days. We have freeze days. We have had hurricane days, and it's conceivable we'll have tornado days, too, at some point in the near future. Once in a while we get a random broken furnace day or water main break day, but today's events at Mt. Greylock mark a new era in the Reasons-We-Need-To-Cancel-School department: high humidity.

For those not in the loop, Greylock sent students home early today because the cool tile floors and highly humid air were not playing nicely together. By 10:00, all the floors had become treacherously slippery and several students had slipped to the ground. How embarrassing, but less so when all of your classmates appear to have badly sharpened ice skates to school. Rather than risk possible injuries, the administration decided to send students home around 12:30. There was a rumor that the cool floors and warm air had led to the formation of a thunderstorm in the West corridor, but, alas, there were no lightning detections.

Today's developments say as much about the decrepit conditions of the home of the Mounties as much as they do about global warming and the accompanying heat index of 100 in the middle of September. Most other schools in Berkshire County don't have this problem, but if they do we'd love to hear about it the comment section below so we can start to predict more accurately the chance of a Humidity Day and not get blindsided by this weather anomaly.

The million dollar question is whether or not the crack custodial staff at MG can get the building de-humidified by the opening of school tomorrow. We need to look at a few things: 1) the timing of the approaching cold front; 2) the dew point for this evening; and 3) the relative humidity.

The cold front doesn't look like it's going to reach us until later in the day (interesting). The dew point will be in the low 70s and high 60s all the way into the morning daylight hours, which is VERY high for this time of year (eyebrows raised). And the relative humidity is still on the way up and will stay in the 90% range all the way until 9 AM tomorrow (are you serious?). What this means--and brace yourselves weather hounds--is that the very real possibility exists that Greylock students will have the day off on Thursday.

Perhaps the custodial staff can work their magi--and, really, let's hope so--but definitely check the local radio and TV outlets tomorrow for a school cancellation announcement. And if a robo-call goes out tomorrow morning (or even tonight), it will definitely be for a full day off, not a delayed start.

This is indeed exciting! Keep yourselves posted. We're not sure how much more we can add to the speculation so it's unlike we'll update with any news until tomorrow afternoon.

Lastly, we definitely promise to release our first long-range forecast for the winter of 2013-14 very soon.

Wintry Mix for Memorial Day Weekend

Further proof that some magical force is at work giving us more and more extreme weather. We have no idea what that force could be...

The words "wintry mix" have been uttered by meteorologists around the region for today, and, yes, it is the weekend that unofficially kicks off summer. Put those pastel dresses and Nantucket reds and mint juleps away and break out the puffy coat and the hot chocolate! Folks in the higher terrains may hear some sleet tapping away on the ol' double pane windows this morning with perhaps a more widespread swath of wintry weather for tonight. It's not a certainty, and it really won't mess with anyone's travel plans, but that cookout you were hoping to have this weekend? Make sure you have two fires--one for the dogs and burgers and the other to warm your guests.

Hopefully, the next time we post will be our mid-summer long-range forecast for Winter 2013-14, but you never know what freak weather event will pop up on the next few weeks.