Thoughts on the Thursday Storm (Feb. 6)

Sunday night's storm brought many delays to our brethren to the west as many New York schools phoned in the two-hour delay on Monday. No such luck for Berkshirites.

All of our attention is on a weather-maker for Thursday. We know many of you could use just one measly little snow day to break up the week, but, alas, we are finding more not to like about this storm than like.

As the former leader of the free world would say, here's the deal. It will snow early Thursday morning and continue through part of the day. There is a good chance snow will change to mixed precipitation and then rain. The bad news is that meteorologists are just not seeing that much liquid precipitation associated with this storm. The models are showing around 2-3 inches, which just doesn't seem to be enough to merit cancelling school.

Euro model for snow on Thursday.

The timing is also precarious. Some indicators are showing that the storm will start before daybreak on Thursday. Others push the start to 7 or 8 AM. The only real way we'll see delays or snow days is if snow begins to fall in that 4 AM to 6 AM window. We also will need a forecast of sleet and freezing rain. If ice were to enter meaningfully into the conversation, then, yes, some schools will have delays and or snow days.

Models are relatively in agreement, so we don't think there will be any big swings in the forecast. Right now our official position is "don't get your hopes up." We will continue to monitor the situation and hope to have better news tomorrow.

Snowcast for the Week (Feb 3-7)

An Alberta Clipper is on the way for Sunday (Feb. 2). Later today we probably will see NWS Albany announce a Winter Weather Advisory for, at least, Northern Berkshire, but likely the whole county. One reliable model is showing 1-3" and the other is showing 2-4". So, it looks like just a few inches of snow overall. It should start around 7 PM but quickly end around 2 AM. Delays for Monday are highly unlikely.

Despite the very frigid temps this morning (Sun.), we will see a warm-up well into the mid-30s by tomorrow. After tonight's snow, on Monday we are expecting a dry but cloudy day. We also could see a short period of drizzle and light rain before a changeover to wet snow Monday night, especially in high terrains. This snow will not accumulate that much and is not a threat to cause delays on Tuesday.

This is the rarely used (by us) NAM model for tonight's clipper. The NAM is another US model that's usually accurate within 24 hours of a storm's arrival.

As for later in the week, we have our eye on a Wednesday night/Thursday situation. The North American model is showing 3-5" but the Euro is indicating only a dusting. There is model inconsistency about the precipitation type as well, with the Euro favoring a wetter storm. We're definitely have higher hopes for delays and/or snow days for Thursday because mixed precipitation (i.e. ice) may enter the forecast. More about that storm in the next few days.

As we wrote briefly about yesterday, there is a chance for a bigger storm next weekend. Sadly, it will fall on the weekend. Good news for the skiers; bad news for the snow day fiends.

Drive safely this evening, and cross those fingers for the Wednesday/Thursday storm to develop in our favor.

Active Pattern for the First Half of February

Happy February, all you flake followers. We've been studying the models this morning, and it would appear that things are starting to percolate on the snow front.

Here is the Cliff Notes version:

*Snow Sunday night (2") but it will end too soon for most students to have a delay.
*North American model shows moderate snow for Thursday (Feb. 6) but the Euro does not. Local meteorologists are eyeing light snow to wintry mix.
*Both show moderate/heavy snow (6+) for Sunday/Monday (Feb. 9/10).
*Another possible moderate storm on deck for Thursday, Feb. 13.

You can never get too excited about what the models are saying 7 and 10 and 14 days out, but all we need is one of these storms to come through in the next two weeks as we limp into February break. After such a promising December, it would be sad if we do not get one snow day in the January to February break period.

North American model for Sunday/Monday Feb. 9/10.

We'll deal with the Thursday and Feb. 9/10 storms next week, but we can tell you that after a very cold Sunday morning (negative single digits), we will see clouds move in on Sunday and the snow should start to fall shortly after nightfall. But it end well before the morning commute, which is why confidence in delays is low.

Stay warm and get ready for some shoveling over the next few weeks.