Delay Threats Early This Week; Big Snow Sunday?

Inch by inch we're making progress toward a "real winter." We have two minor disturbances to contend with early this week and then possibly a major disturbance for the weekend.

Not one but two chances for delays exist this week. Both would be in the low probability category, as there isn't much moisture to work with. The first chance comes Tuesday morning as snow will move into the Berkshires in the early morning hours and should still be coming down during the morning commute. We're only looking at 1-2 inches, so a Superintendent will have to be very cautious to want to take away precious classroom time for such a minor snow event. Schools in the northern half of the county have a better chance for delays as this storm will impact counties to our west and north in a much more significant manner.

"Storm" might be too strong a word for this minor disturbance.

We have a slightly better chance for delays on Wednesday because more snow is expected. A low pressure system is supposed to strengthen off the coast of New England tomorrow night. There could be enough wrap-around energy to give us heavy snow periods late on Tuesday night, totaling up to 3 inches for the Berkshires, especially in higher terrain. There are a lot of ifs with this storm, so again we don't think there will be many, if any, delays on Wednesday morning, but the chance exists only if the best case scenario develops. Again, North County schools' chances are greater than South County schools' for two-hour delays.

But all the buzz this week will be about a Sunday nor'easter. The North American model is predicting it, but the European is less certain. Typically, the Euro does a better job so we really must caution you not to get too excited about a big storm, even though some runs of the NA model are showing a foot for the Berkshires. Many pieces of energy need to click into place for us to get "the big one" we've been craving for the last few months.

Let's see how we make out over the next few days before we get too excited about a storm for Sunday, especially because the Sunday storm will likely be over before Monday and won't yield snow days.

Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday Morning; Tuesday Storm Fizzling

It's getting busier around these parts, and unsettled weather will dominate the headlines for the next few weeks and, hopefully, on into the end of January. Unfortunately, we do not have any big storms in the immediate forecast. Yes, this means Tuesday's storm will fail to materialize.

First things first. We have a Winter Weather Advisory for the first half of Saturday. We may see some freezing rain in the morning before a change to all rain by noon tomorrow. We think NWS Albany is being cautious with this one, but slippery roads could slow you down if you have early morning errands or travel plans.

Saturday looks to be one of those wet and cold and unpleasant winter days where indoor sports, games, and activities are the way to go. Catch a movie (we recommend Green Book), binge a show (The Good Place is kind of fun if you haven't hit it yet), play a game (who doesn't love Rat-a-Tat Cat?).

Tuesday's storm does not appear that it wants to cooperate. The two energy systems that we needed to phase together apparently want to stay apart. Alas, we will not be getting a snow day on Tuesday as there simply will not be enough moisture to generate enough snow. Oh, we'll still see snow on Monday night and we could see some squalls on Tuesday, but it will be very light and could change over to rain at some point.

We're terribly sorry to report this news. But do not despair. We think much bigger and better storms are headed our way for the middle and end of January.

Drive safely in the morning tomorrow. We'll monitor the early week messiness, and we're keeping an eye on a storm for next weekend as well.

Snow Tonight and Early Next Week

Signs are afoot that we may be turning the corner. While an end-of-the-week big storm did not materialize, we do have some snow on the way this evening that has a very small chance of impacting the morning commute tomorrow.

Bennington County has a Winter Weather Advisory in place for this evening for elevations over 1200 feet. This means that North County school superintendents should at least be aware that snow will fall for several hours in the early morning hours. While there is not much moisture with this storm, some locations along the Vermont border could see 2-3 inches. If the timing is right and road crews (literally) sleep on this storm, we could see a few delays. The usual suspects--Adams/Cheshire, North Adams, Mount Greylock, Savoy, Florida, Southwest Vermont SU--have a much better chance for delays than any district south of Lanesborough. We want to emphasize, though, that the chance is very low for many delays.

WNYT Channel 13's snow prediction for tonight's minor snow event.

As for future storms, one of our favorite winter storm prognosticators (Judah Cohen) loves to watch the Polar Vortex (PV), and his analysis of model runs of the PV suggests that we're in for a prolonged period of storminess starting in about a week. According to his calculations, there should be enough cold air and storm frequency to make it feel like winter again in the Northeast. We're buying what he's selling and expect things to pick up considerably for middle and late January.

For next week, it looks like there are two pieces of energy that could give us snow. One looks to bring light snow to us Monday night, and the second piece (a coastal low developing off of New Jersey) could bring us more moderate frozen precipitation Tuesday during the day and Tuesday night. Our initial reaction to this forecast is one of skepticism. We're not seeing the phasing of the two storms (phasing would result in a blockbuster), and the timing is lousy. But there looks to be enough cold air and moisture with this mess to at least get the phrase "two-hour delay" into the discussion for the morning commute on Tuesday.

We doubt there will be delays tomorrow, but if you start to hear snow plows around 5 AM, you never know.