Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday Night & Wednesday Morning

We alerted you to a midweek weather disturbance a few days ago, and it looks like the storm will impact our area starting tomorrow afternoon.

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of the Berkshires starting at 3 PM. We like the fact that the Advisory ends at 10 AM Wednesday, which means we could see problematic driving conditions during the morning commute.

Before you get too excited, though, check out this graphic from Paul Caiano over at Channel 13 in Albany:

You can see that this storm is not slated to produce a robust snow total. We really hope the Euro model (ECMWF) comes through. If we can get four inches and add in some early morning ice, then we'll see many delays in the county for Wednesday morning.

Don't forget that ice storms are some of the hardest to predict. A half degree change in the temperature or a 30 mile change in the storm track can make a huge difference. We'll do our best to try to provide a realistic prediction for Wednesday morning.

[UPDATED]

Initially we felt confident that this minor storm would not postpone the high school basketball tournament games down at UMass, but now we're not so sure. The Advisory now includes Amherst, so those games are now in jeopardy of being moved to another night. Tournament officials would be wise to wait until tomorrow morning to get a better sense of the timing and severity of the snow.

Delay(s) for Monday

Yes, we have at least one delay in Berkshire County this morning. Should we get more, we'll update the list below. But road crews have been hard at work throughout the night and they seem to have most roads under control.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Florida

As for the midweek storm, we're liking delays for schools on Wednesday more and more. We'll see 3-4 inches of snow Tuesday night then several hours of icing--sleet and freezing rain--from 3 AM to 7 AM. We will likely see a Winter Weather Advisory issued for Berkshire County, but not a Winter Storm Watch or Warning.

Complicating matters is a scheduled half-day for teacher professional development on Wednesday for some schools in the county.

Much more to come on our snow/ice storm later tonight.

Sunday Afternoon Storm Update

The snow started falling earlier than expected today--around 10 AM at GSD Headquarters--but it has since stopped. It will resume later this afternoon, with about 2-3" the likely outcome for most in the County.

We are getting some coastal development from this storm, which means that South County could now be the beneficiaries of a higher snowfall total. Up to 6" is now predicted for those south of I-90.

Looking at the radar, we've noticed the storm is not particularly well developed. The snow is starting to fill in more as it gains some energy from the ocean, but this storm isn't simply going to be a big snow maker. We will lower the True North Confidence Meter for delays as a result.

As for Tuesday night's storm, we're almost certain now that there will be mixed precipitation involved. So even though snow totals will not be that high--3-5" expected--the addition of ice at dawn on Wednesday could certainly generate many delays for the day.

We'll keep you posted with any new developments for both of our storms.

Here's a some fascinating data from NWS Albany:

We actually had less snow than an average February, about 12" fewer than normal. But the cold temps more than made up for the loss of those inches. What we just experienced this past February is one of the coldest months ever. We may not experience another month with such sustained cold in our lifetimes. But, with climate change causing more and more extreme and anomalous weather events, perhaps next winter we'll experience an even colder month. Or this summer we'll have the hottest July ever. Who is to say these days.