Delays for Thursday, Feb. 27

We have only about half an inch of snow at the GSD Home Office, so that means delays are few and far between this morning. Here's the list:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Emma Miller 

Delays Possible -- Thursday, Feb. 27

We hope everyone has enjoyed the spring-like temps these past few days. It has been nice to shed the heavy winter coat and see the sun set later and later.

But winter sure ain't over, and we have a possible messy commute in store for tomorrow (Thursday), especially for those in the northern and high elevation towns of the county.

A clipper system will move in late tonight. Temps will be right around freezing so any precip that falls should come down as wet snow for several hours. Because roads have been warm lately, it will take a while for snow to accumulate on them. Total snow expected is 1" in areas south of I-90, 1-2" in areas north, and 2-3" in the northeast hilltowns. So, the usual suspects in those areas have a better chance of a delay: the hilltown elementary schools, Central Berkshire, and Hoosac Valley.

NWS Albany

The "glass half full" approach is that the timing looks good for snow to be falling through the "witching hours" (5-7 AM) in North County. The "glass half empty" outlook is that we are discouraged by the lack of cold air in place. The changeover to rain could happen around daybreak, which would limit delays on Thursday.

All in all it's a low confidence delay scenario. A few schools will get delays but most in the county will be in session for the entire day.

(But the past two Thursdays (before public school vacation) we were wrong in a good way, so will the third time be the charm?)

Snowcast -- Week of Feb. 24

The end of public school vacation week has brought milder and more predictable weather, but now we turn our attention to the school week ahead (starting on Monday, February 24).

Compared to the last few weeks, we are expecting milder weather and minor clipper systems to impact our area. With the milder air, we will see wet snow and rain.

There are three chances for precipitation next week. Monday afternoon into Tuesday; Tuesday into Wednesday; and Thursday. All three are clipper-type systems (which means low snow totals).

Courtesy of Pivotal Weather. We're very much on track for an average Berkshire winter.

None of these storms are showing to be particularly potent according to the models. The Thursday storm is given a better chance by the North American model--2-3"--but the Euro is not as confident about measurable snow.

So it's looking like a full week of school, but we will keep half an eye open for the Thursday storm to see if it can pick up any momentum.

The good news is that both models are showing more moderate snow for Monday, March 3rd. 

Enjoy the warm-up this weekend!

Winter Storm Watch for Saturday/Sunday Feb. 15/16

This weekend is shaping up to be a messy one. The first half of Saturday will be fine, but then things go downhill rapidly in the afternoon and evening with snow heavy at times. The storm will have a long duration as well, and precipitation will continue to fall on Sunday. What is unclear is the form of the precip on Sunday.

There are two parts to the storm. A big low pressure system will move in from the Ohio valley and bring us our first shot of snow. It will come down heavy at times Saturday evening. But this storm's center is going to track to our west, which means warm air from the south is going push into our area. The warm air will lead to sleet and freezing rain and then eventually rain.

NWS Albany

As the warm-up is happening, a secondary low pressure system is going to form on the coast to our south. This system could counteract the warm up and bring cooler air back into play, which would change liquid precipitation back to frozen precipitation. The models are not in agreement about this secondary low.

So, the total inches of snow with this storm are going to be hard to predict. We should be around the 6" mark, but who knows what the sleet and rain will do to compress the snow. And then if we get more snow from the secondary low, then that will re-raise our totals on Sunday.

Were this storm to have arrived on a school day, snow days would have definitely been in order for all students.

Right now we expect snow to start around 2:00 PM on Saturday, and precipitation in some form will continue through Sunday afternoon.

Wind, Snow, Rain, Cold -- In That Order

Another icy Thursday led to a clean sweep of delays and cancellations for today. Impressive for only 0.2" of snow and a little sleet at the Home Office in Williamstown (!). The only schools in the County in session for the full day appeared to be MCLA and Williams.

All the public school students are off next week, so Superintendents are sighing with relief that they get 10 days off to not think about the weather. (It's way too soon but one model is showing heavy snow for the Monday after vacation.)

In the meantime, we have a wild four days coming up. Here's what you should know:

*A Wind Advisory goes into effect at 6 PM tonight. Some gusts will approach 50 mph. Yikes! Power outages are possible, so there is a chance for a random delay or cancellation from the wind.

*Heavy snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Temps will be near 32, so it will be a wet and greasy snow. Travel will be difficult Saturday evening. The Berkshires should see 4-8" of snow before the changeover.

*Snow transitions to rain Sunday morning and temps rise into the mid 30s. A mostly wet day with ice possible in a few pockets early on.

*Bitter cold returns on the back end of the storm Sunday night, which will kick up squalls and upslope snow. We might get to 20 degrees on Monday but Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the teens. Hopefully the rain does not wipe out the snow base and folks can get out for fun outdoor activities on vacation those days.

NWS Albany. We think these totals will trend slightly higher tomorrow and Saturday.

Tonight, be safe out there with the wind. And we'll be sure to update everyone on the Saturday/Sunday snow event tomorrow (or Saturday morning at the latest).

(And thanks to John S, Matt S, and Tattiya M for caffeine-fueling the GSD Staff for the next few weeks. Much appreciated!)

Delays and Closings for Thursday, Feb. 13

[Updated: Thurs. 7:17 AM] Another Thursday storm has ushered in delays and closings. The forecast for ice is once again having a positive impact. 

SNOW DAY:

Florida
Gabriel Abbott

Southwest Vermont SVU

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori
Berkshire Waldorf

Branches School of the Berkshires

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River

Hancock

Hillcrest

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

McCann

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond

Southern Berkshire

 

Winners and Losers for Thursday, Feb. 13

The Winter Weather Advisory is going to go into effect starting at 7 PM tonight, but in general snow total predictions are down slightly (1-2") and ice predictions have held steady (0.05-0.16).

Current signs point to delays for districts in the eastern half of the county. The northeastern elementary schools are likely to have delays. And Central Berkshire, Farmington River, and Hoosac Valley all have a higher chance for delays than other districts.

NWS Albany

Still, there is threat of ice through 8 AM, which means widespread delays are possible for all Berkshire County students. 

Because the precipitation will be light and road crews will be able to keep up with the precipitation, we are lowering the chance for delay from 50% to 40%. The schools mentioned above are in the 75% chance range, but schools to the west and south are in the 20% chance range.

Once we get through Thursday, we have a possible snow-to-rain event for the weekend. Current projection for liquid precipitation is 1" or more. More details about that storm tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory -- Thursday, Feb. 13

Not too much has changed with the forecast for the Wednesday night and Thursday storm. NWS Albany has predictably announced a Winter Weather Advisory that goes into effect at 7 PM Wednesday and ends at 1 PM on Thursday.

The models have adjusted snow totals down slightly (1-2"), but ice totals are marginally higher. The key is going to be the time of the changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Ground temps at the time of the first bus runs (7-ish) should still be below freezing, which means mixed precipitation is likely for the commute. Given last week's response to ice, chances for delays on Thursday are good.

North American model for Thursday at 6 AM. Pink/orange is freezing rain. Purple is sleet.

Students on the east-facing slopes of the County will have a better chance for a delay. Students in the north will have a slightly better chance than students in the south.

We don't think any Superintendents will make their call Wednesday night, so this will have to be a wake-up-and-see kind of morning.

At this point if you really are hoping for a delay, you want to root for the cold air to stay in place as long as possible.

Delays Possible for Thursday, Feb. 13

It's a new week and more snow is on the way. This week is shaping up to be very similar to last week because we are looking at a snow/sleet event for Thursday and a bigger storm for the weekend.

Once again, Thursday's storm looks to be light. The difference this week is that snow will fall late Wednesday night into Tuesday and could change over to sleet and freezing rain at daybreak. Even though we're only expecting to get 1-3", the morning commute could be a mess with the ice forecast, which is why we think delays are likely.

We'll probably see a Winter Weather Advisory by Wednesday. 

The North American model for Thursday. We probably will not see this much snow, but it's in the realm of possibility.

The storm for the weekend is complicated. Models are not in agreement on the track or on the type of precipitation. It will definitely start as snow Saturday afternoon and then from that point it's unclear. what will happen. The snow could continue or it could transition to mixed precipitation Saturday evening then rain on Sunday. The farther north you are, the better chance you will have for snow. 

The models are showing a range of 3" to 8", but that range will narrow as we get a better handle on the track.

Saturday afternoon and night look like bad times for travel.

We'll have more about Thursday's situation in the days ahead.

Winter Storm Warning -- Saturday/Sunday, Feb. 8-9

We have good ol' fashioned snowstorm headed our way for Saturday night. NWS Albany announced a Winter Storm Warning for our area, which means 5+ inches is almost guaranteed. Get your snow boots and shovels ready!

Saturday will be cold but snow-free. Snow will begin around 7 PM and last through the morning hours of Sunday. Total accumulations are expected to be in the 6-8" range. If Sunday were a school day we would be looking at snow days for all students in the Berkshires.

Accuweather

Temps will be in the low 20s when the bulk of the snow is coming down. This means the snow will be light and fluffy and should be able to be shoveled fairly easily.

Any Sunday morning events will likely be cancelled or postponed until later in the day.

NWS Albany

As we look at next week--the week before vacation for most--we have a very active period from Tuesday through Thursday. Our best guess right now is delays in play for Wednesday and delays/snow days possible for Thursday. 

There is uncertainty about how north or south these storms will track, which is why things are very much up in the air for those days. But the active pattern and cold temps should allow students to get a shortened day either Wednesday or Thursday.

Winter Storm Watch for Super Bowl Weekend

A proper winter storm is on the way for this weekend. But before we delve into the details, a few words about today's storm.

First, we were dead wrong. We greatly underestimated the worry that sleet induced, but we also think an element of softness crept into the proceedings. It's rare to cancel school (the night before for many districts) due to a Winter Weather Advisory only calling for 1-3" of snow. 

Perhaps the lack of snow days in January (for most districts) meant that Superintendents felt they had banked a few snow days and could afford to spend one today. Regardless of the circumstances that led to a clean sweep, the Berkshires were not unique in going with snow days. Most schools from Albany eastward cancelled school either Wednesday night or by 6 AM on Thursday. For the record, snow ended at the GSD Home Office by 11 AM, but the commute for the elementary schoolers would have been treacherous and resulted in angry parent phone calls and emails. 

NWS Albany -- weekend storm snowcast

We don't like to be wrong--especially because many of you value our opinion--but thank goodness we were wrong in the right direction.

Onward to the next storm. This one definitely looks more substantial. As of 3 PM today (Thursday), NWS Albany has hoisted the Winter Storm Watch flag. Because the Watch calls for 7+ inches, we will likely see a Winter Storm Warning announced by tomorrow afternoon.

North American model for the weekend storm.

The models are more or less in agreement. The Euro favors a more southerly storm and lower snow totals (4-5"), but the North American is showing 7-9". NWS Albany is clearly going with the North American model right now (see above).

Everybody will be able to get their Saturday activities in, but anything scheduled before noon on Sunday will likely be cancelled. The storm will be a fast mover and should wrap up by the mid-morning hours.

As for the next chance for a snow day, both models are showing snow for Thursday and Friday next week. The North American model is showing snow for later in the day on Thursday and into Friday, but the Euro give us another midday Thursday storm. Both models are showing 5+ inches of snow so that's encouraging and will be the center of our focus in the week before public school February break.

The current Euro model for 1 PM on Thursday, Feb. 13

Cancellations for Thursday, Feb. 6

[Updated: Thurs. 6:50 AM] If you don't have a snow day today, then your Superintendent is one hard-nosed individual. It looks like a clean sweep for County snow days today. Our instant analysis is that the word "sleet" spooked school heads and it all just snowballed. 

Snow should start by 8 AM and end as drizzle later this afternoon. We are still expecting 2-3" total.

SNOW DAY:

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College (decision about night classes to be made at 1 PM)

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Emma Miller

Farmington River

Florida

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

Hoosick Falls (NY)

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

McCann

MCLA (including evening classes)

Mount Greylock
North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshire

Snowday or Bust -- Update on the Feb. 6 Storm

From NWS Albany, we have received a Winter Weather Advisory. Terms of the arrangement are 1-3 inches of snow with some sleet all occurring between the hours of 4 AM and 6 PM on Thursday.

The GSD Staff is still not enamored with this storm. While it's encouraging that sleet will mix in, that sleet will fall mid-morning and should not impact either the morning or afternoon bus runs.

The two big prohibitive issues are a lack of snow and the late arrival (see below). Even when we look at the high end potential of this storm, it's still barely 4". So, it's likely that almost all of the snow will fall while students are at school. The elementary school bus runs/drop offs could be slippery, but few superintendents are going to worry much about that if it's not snowing for the high school runs.

NWS Albany

Your only real chance for a snow day tomorrow is if your superintendent is in a very generous mood. So despite what your weather app might be showing--Wunderground continues to show 5" for the GSD Home Office in Williamstown--we really think this will be a light snow-to-sleet-to-rain event that will start late and end in the early afternoon.

  

Thoughts on the Thursday Storm (Feb. 6)

Sunday night's storm brought many delays to our brethren to the west as many New York schools phoned in the two-hour delay on Monday. No such luck for Berkshirites.

All of our attention is on a weather-maker for Thursday. We know many of you could use just one measly little snow day to break up the week, but, alas, we are finding more not to like about this storm than like.

As the former leader of the free world would say, here's the deal. It will snow early Thursday morning and continue through part of the day. There is a good chance snow will change to mixed precipitation and then rain. The bad news is that meteorologists are just not seeing that much liquid precipitation associated with this storm. The models are showing around 2-3 inches, which just doesn't seem to be enough to merit cancelling school.

Euro model for snow on Thursday.

The timing is also precarious. Some indicators are showing that the storm will start before daybreak on Thursday. Others push the start to 7 or 8 AM. The only real way we'll see delays or snow days is if snow begins to fall in that 4 AM to 6 AM window. We also will need a forecast of sleet and freezing rain. If ice were to enter meaningfully into the conversation, then, yes, some schools will have delays and or snow days.

Models are relatively in agreement, so we don't think there will be any big swings in the forecast. Right now our official position is "don't get your hopes up." We will continue to monitor the situation and hope to have better news tomorrow.

Snowcast for the Week (Feb 3-7)

An Alberta Clipper is on the way for Sunday (Feb. 2). Later today we probably will see NWS Albany announce a Winter Weather Advisory for, at least, Northern Berkshire, but likely the whole county. One reliable model is showing 1-3" and the other is showing 2-4". So, it looks like just a few inches of snow overall. It should start around 7 PM but quickly end around 2 AM. Delays for Monday are highly unlikely.

Despite the very frigid temps this morning (Sun.), we will see a warm-up well into the mid-30s by tomorrow. After tonight's snow, on Monday we are expecting a dry but cloudy day. We also could see a short period of drizzle and light rain before a changeover to wet snow Monday night, especially in high terrains. This snow will not accumulate that much and is not a threat to cause delays on Tuesday.

This is the rarely used (by us) NAM model for tonight's clipper. The NAM is another US model that's usually accurate within 24 hours of a storm's arrival.

As for later in the week, we have our eye on a Wednesday night/Thursday situation. The North American model is showing 3-5" but the Euro is indicating only a dusting. There is model inconsistency about the precipitation type as well, with the Euro favoring a wetter storm. We're definitely have higher hopes for delays and/or snow days for Thursday because mixed precipitation (i.e. ice) may enter the forecast. More about that storm in the next few days.

As we wrote briefly about yesterday, there is a chance for a bigger storm next weekend. Sadly, it will fall on the weekend. Good news for the skiers; bad news for the snow day fiends.

Drive safely this evening, and cross those fingers for the Wednesday/Thursday storm to develop in our favor.

Active Pattern for the First Half of February

Happy February, all you flake followers. We've been studying the models this morning, and it would appear that things are starting to percolate on the snow front.

Here is the Cliff Notes version:

*Snow Sunday night (2") but it will end too soon for most students to have a delay.
*North American model shows moderate snow for Thursday (Feb. 6) but the Euro does not. Local meteorologists are eyeing light snow to wintry mix.
*Both show moderate/heavy snow (6+) for Sunday/Monday (Feb. 9/10).
*Another possible moderate storm on deck for Thursday, Feb. 13.

You can never get too excited about what the models are saying 7 and 10 and 14 days out, but all we need is one of these storms to come through in the next two weeks as we limp into February break. After such a promising December, it would be sad if we do not get one snow day in the January to February break period.

North American model for Sunday/Monday Feb. 9/10.

We'll deal with the Thursday and Feb. 9/10 storms next week, but we can tell you that after a very cold Sunday morning (negative single digits), we will see clouds move in on Sunday and the snow should start to fall shortly after nightfall. But it end well before the morning commute, which is why confidence in delays is low.

Stay warm and get ready for some shoveling over the next few weeks.