(D)icy Morning Commute on Friday

The second Winter Weather Advisory of the week has been posted for early Friday morning through Friday evening.

We have not had many ice threats this winter, but tomorrow one is shaping up. The concern is surface level temps below freezing and rain moving into the area Friday morning. When that happens, we get freezing rain, which is the more dangerous of the two ice forms (sleet being the other one).

NWS Albany

The big question is timing. Precipitation should move in to the Berkshires south to north. Right now it looks like we'll see icing around 7 AM and it will steadily creep north. If the storm system accelerates even slightly, there could be enough time for schools to call a delay.

Ice is typically harder to pin down so chances for delays tomorrow are low. Contrary to most storms this season, southern districts and schools will have the better chance for delays.

Stay alert as some Superintendents may be forced to make later-than-normal decisions about any delays.

Delays for Wednesday, Jan. 29

Only a few inches have fallen at the GSD Home Office and roads look relatively clear. More snow later today but it will be less than an inch. But we do have a few delays to report:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Emma Miller
MCLA (10 AM start) 

Alberta Clipper On the Way (Winter Weather Advisory North County)

Despite the forecast for light snow this morning (Tuesday), very little fell and stuck to the ground. Fortunately, we do not have to wait long for more snow as an Alberta Clipper will move through late tonight and drop a few inches on the Berkshires.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for Northern Berkshire only at this point. The Advisory is calling for 2-5" with gusty winds as well. Most of the snow should fall before the Wednesday commute, but due to the unsettled air, lingering snow showers, squalls, and upslope snows are possible throughout the day, which is why the Advisory extends to 1 AM Thursday.

NWS Albany

With the the bulk of the snow slated to fall between 10 PM and 4 AM, we would imagine most road crews will be able to get on top of their plowing and keep roads safe for school buses. But school districts north and east of Pittsfield will definitely have an elevated chance for a delay.

The GSD staff will be surprised if no schools have delays tomorrow. Equally surprising would be any full snow days called. So, depending on whether your are north or south, or are in a high elevation town or in the valley, that will determine your chances of a delay for Wednesday.

We will post early in the AM if any districts shorten the school day.

Early Week Snow (Jan. 27-31)

On one hand it's hard to believe this is the last week of January, but January also feels like it has been going on forever. How can that be? (The staff would say that's further proof of their first-rate intelligence.)

But let's talk snow. We do not have a lot in the forecast but we do have some and it bears watching as the timing could work to our benefit and generate a few delays.

First up is a chance for snow during the Tuesday morning commute. While we will be lucky to see an inch from this minor system, the timing is excellent. Unfortunately, most of the snow will be generated by squalls and squalls are notoriously difficult to predict (both timing and location). As a result, we have low confidence that we'll see delays on Tuesday but it's possible a school or two will see one.

Not a lot to work with here for the Tuesday AM commute (NWS Albany).

There's a better chance for delays on Wednesday morning. An Alberta clipper will move through our area Tuesday night. This clipper will produce more snow (1-3 inches), so the chances are higher for delays, but still it will be very light and road crews should be able to stay on top of it. But we like the timing and think a smattering of districts will consider delaying the start on Wednesday.

As for the long-range forecast, the models are showing possible heavier snowfalls for the next two Mondays--February 3 and February 10. The Euro and North American are not quite in agreement on these two storms, but it's possible we are seeing a "wave of three" developing. The wave of three is a series of three similar coastal storms over a three-week period. (A memorable wave of three storms occurred in Boston in February of 2015 which led to a record seasonal snowfall total that year.) In no way are expecting record-breaking snow over the next few weeks, but we could be seeing a pattern for more and bigger storms. February is, after all, our historically snowiest month.

Freeze Delays for Wednesday, Jan. 22 (Updated)

Updated at 8:15 AM Wednesday

NWS Albany

Several school districts have decided to delay the start of school or cancel due to the forecast for temperatures well below zero and wind chill values around -25 degrees. Here is the current list of delays and cancellations.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Emma Miller

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock

Hoosac Valley

Lenox

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pittsfield

Richmond

FREEZE DAY:

Central Berkshire

Farmington River

Winter Storm Warning for Sunday, Jan. 19

Updated 9:00 PM, Sat. Jan. 18

NWS Albany has announced a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County for Sunday into Monday. It's a fast mover, but the current intel suggests we'll see 6+ inches of snow up and down the County.

Most schools are off on Monday, but the commute will be slow for the general working community.

NWS Albany

Snow is currently expected to start on Sunday at 3:00 and, as we stated yesterday, it will end fairly quickly: before sunrise on Monday. Monday will be a great day for sledding, skiing, snowperson-making, etc., but it will be getting colder and colder and downright Januar-ary.

HRRR Model snow total by early Monday.

We'll update later today should there be any shifts to the track of the storm. But all should get ready for a good ol' fashioned New England snowstorm.  

Shovels Ready: Snow Sunday Night

As you can tell by the lack of action at this very weather outlet, January has been slow in getting going with measurable snowfall. Sure, we've had plenty of flurries--in fact, it feels like it's been flurrying for weeks--but we are in a storm-less rut.

We could be pulling out of that rut this weekend, as we have shovel-able snow on the way for Sunday, and the long-range forecast is showing two eye-brow raising storm possibilities in the upcoming twelve days.

The forecast for Sunday night's storm keeps getting snowier. We were seeing just an inch or two a few days ago, but now meteorologists and models are indicating a possible 3-5" for the Berkshires. 

A low pressure system will track along the coast on Sunday. Cold air is in place, so the farther north the storm tracks, the more snow we will get. If the low veers north, we could get to Winter Storm Watch potential, but more likely is a Winter Weather Advisory will be announced on Saturday or early Sunday morning.

NWS Albany

The Sunday night event will be a quick one. Snow moves in in the late afternoon (between 4-6 PM), and it should be finished before the morning commute. For those who have to work on Monday (MLK Jr. Day), you may need an extra few minutes for your drive.

After Sunday, we will have a bitterly cold few days. Monday through Thursday will be frigid. The worst days will be Tuesday and Wednesday when high temps will be in the low teens. Slow your roll on any freeze day thoughts as we will get below 0 on Tuesday night but only by a few degrees.

As for snow, we see possible storms for Monday the 27th and/or Wednesday the 29th. For now we'll temper expectations given how far out these storms are, but we're definitely on the case.

Let's hope the storm tracks further north on Sunday. While we're on track to reach our average snow fall total, we need January to yield better results.

 

Winter Weather Advisory Starts the New Year

Happy New Year, snow lovers!

The year is starting off on a positive note with snow in the forecast. NWS Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire County and a Wind Advisory for the entire County. But all in the Berkshires should wake up to snow on the ground on Thursday. 

Some school districts are still on vacation on Thursday, but most schools are back in session. We are expecting delays for some but not all districts. Pittsfield, Central Berkshire, Hoosac Valley, North Adams and the mountain elementary schools all have a better chance for a delay than Lee, Lenox, Berkshire Hills, and Southern Berkshire.

NWS Albany

The Advisory kicks in at 4 PM, which means snow should start falling around 5. Higher elevations will once again be favored to get more snow. The current forecast is for 3-6" in Northern Berkshire and 1-3" in Southern Berkshire. Snow should continue well into the day on Thursday.

This is not a traditional snow storm (i.e. Alberta Clipper or nor'easter). The strong storm that brought heavy rain last night is now swirling around up in Canada. That swirling will create lake effect snow and upslope snow. (Check out the forecast for towns on the eastern edge of Lake Ontario--2-4 feet in some spots!)

These kinds of "residual effects" snow events can be very unpredictable. Squalls can come through and elevate snow totals. We can also get locked in to a prolonged period of upslope snow. On that note, NWS Albany always posts a high end map that shows the potential if the storm over performs. Here it is:

NWS Albany

If the storm does over perform, then obviously snow days are likely for all districts. But putting hope in "if" is a dangerous game.

The GSD Staff has mixed feelings about this storm. The timing looks good in that it should be snowing during the witching hour (i.e. when Superintendents make their decisions), but we are less enthused about the amount of snow. So we will go with a fairly generic 50% chance of delays for schools in the north and 30% chance for schools below Pittsfield. And everybody gets a 15% chance for a snow day.

We'll post later tonight if conditions improve or degrade in any significant way. Enjoy the last day of vacation, and may your prayerful thoughts be snowy ones.