1st Storm Is In The Books

A clean sweep for snow days for Berkshire County today! We definitely were cautious with the Confidence Meter, but most in our office had a good feeling about this first storm. The slightly late timing and the concern about mixed precipitation in South County were the key reasons we did not ramp up the Meter to 100%.

The storm did underperform slightly. We got 4.5" at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. The storm ended up right in the middle between the Euro and the North American (GFS) models. The Euro continues to be just a little more accurate from year to year so we'll continue to feature that model when we are looking at potential snow days.

Observed snow totals as of 9 PM Tuesday.

We are now looking at some kind of disturbance for next Thursday and Friday. The models are not in agreement but it looks like we could see snow anywhere from late Wednesday night to Friday afternoon. It does not look organized like today's storm was, so 1-3" may be our best bet for snow at the end of next week.

Get ready for the cold. Friday morning is going to be brutal--we could see negative numbers--and the high on Friday will barely get into the 20s.

Thanks for reading, and we'll have more info about next week's snow over the weekend.

Cancellations for Tuesday, Dec. 2

Last update: 7:34 AM, Tuesday

A leading edge dusting has fallen, but the heavy stuff is not coming down for a few hours yet. Expect moderate snow to begin between 7 and 8 AM. Heavier snow could fall in the afternoon as some locations will get close to 10 inches. Enjoy your day off from school!

SNOW DAY:

Bement School

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg
Emma Miller

Farmington River

Florida

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

MCLA

McCann

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Rowe Elementary

Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU

First Storm (Dec. 2) Eve

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County for Tuesday. This is the development we were looking for and should ensure that most students in the County have a day off or shortened day of school.

More and more the models are starting to resemble each other. The Euro is still the party-pooper of the group, showing a 3-4" storm for our area. The two North American models--the short-term NAM and the longer term GFS--as well as the Euro's AI-enhanced model are all showing 6+ inches of snow.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

The timing of the start of the storm is the only real negative. The good folks over at NWS Albany are saying it will start at 7 AM for all of Berkshire County. One great positive is it looks like plenty of cold air will be in place. Right now on Monday it may be in the low 30s where you live, but the mercury will steadily drop into the mid and low 20s as we move toward the morning commute hours and the onset of the snow.

In terms of the calculus of the superintendents, they are in a slightly tough spot. You never want to call the first snow day of a season and have it be a bust. But then again, you don't want to send children to school only to have them on buses when the storm really starts to ramp up in the early afternoon. And the early release is problematic for families. Some of those problems can be mitigated by calling it the night before, but there's still risk that 2-3 inches of snow will be on the ground at the time of the early release. You can see that the easiest decision is to just call the day off and hope we don't have too many storms later this winter.

We're adjusting the Confidence Meter higher as a result of the upgrade to the Warning. We'll likely post again this evening in the hope that some Superintendents phone in the snow day this evening.

Latest Developments on Tuesday's Storm -- Winter Storm Watch

Earlier today the National Weather Service in Albany announced a Winter Storm Watch for all of Berkshire County for Tuesday. This is an encouraging sign especially that we are 36 hours out from the start of the snow.

NWS Albany can now go one of two ways with this storm. They can upgrade us to a Winter Storm Warning on Monday, which means they think we're going to see 6+ inches of snow. Or, they could go with a Winter Weather Advisory, which means only 2-5 inches is expected.

Fortunately for us, meteorologists seem to favoring the Warning scenario. The models are definitely not in full agreement. The traditional Euro takes the storm farther out to sea, which means less snow and only the Advisory. The North American and the Euro AI model both show most of the county getting 6-7 inches. 

And now let us introduce you to our friend the NAM, another North American Model. It's used for shorter range forecasting. Well, here's what it's predicting today:

Love the NAM.

Do we think the NAM is right? Highly, highly unlikely. Is the NAM ever right? Our experience with the NAM with snow storms is rarely. But this map is enough to give meteorologists pause, causing them to lean toward higher snow totals for the area, which we do appreciate.

Tomorrow will be a big day and should give us more insight about the track and onset of snow. There's a lot of reason to be optimistic for snow days for many in Berkshire County on Tuesday. We'll need to temper our expectations (GSD Staff and readers alike) lest we get too far ahead of ourselves, but there's really been no bad news about this storm in the last 24 hours.

T-Minus 48 Hours (Tuesday, Dec. 2 Storm)

Many of us in the Berkshires are getting to enjoy a few scattered flakes today (Sunday). It's a nice mood-setter if you are out and about getting a tree or setting up your home decorations.

The big news, of course, is the potential coastal storm for Tuesday. The more information we've been able to gather, the more likely it appears we'll be seeing 4+ inches of snow on Tuesday starting around 5 AM and lasting throughout the day and into Tuesday night. 

Image courtesy of NWS Albany

Right now, we think it's a 50/50 proposition on whether or not school will be cancelled. We'll bump the early release up to 60%, but not a lot of Superintendents like the release, so for those districts it will be a full snow day or nothing.

This map shows our chances (70-80%) of getting 6+" of snow from the storm.

The things that meteorologists and models appear to agree on are that 1) there is a enough cold air in place for all snow; 2) the snow will start before or right around daybreak on Tuesday. What is less agreed upon is the track of the center of the low pressure system. Further south and away from the coast means less snow. Closer to the coast will allow more moisture to enter the equation and give us more snow. 

One model we've seen is showing almost an inch of liquid precipitation. If we use our standard snow-to-liquid ratio of 10 inches for every 1 inch of liquid, we should have no problem getting 6+ inches of snow.

This map shows a 70-90% chance for a Winter Storm Warning for the Berkshires (red areas). Map courtesy of NOAA.

It's only been good news so far today, so keep thinking snowy thoughts and locate those boots, shovels, and sleds. 

Update on the Tuesday Storm

The GSD Staff is deep into the Model Watch zone as we are under 72 hours before our first decent snow storm of the season.

Things are still looking good for measurable snow. What we're less certain about is how much the storm will impact the school day on Tuesday.

The models are both still showing measurable snow for most of southern and coastal New England. It definitely looks as if some places will see 8+ inches of the good white stuff. So much depends on the track of the storm, as usual.

The North American model is still coming in strong with 5-6 inches of snow for most in the Berkshires.

The North American (GFS) model forecast.

The Euro model, though, continues to push forward a more modest forecast. We would see measurable snow and messy roads but only 2-4 inches. 

The standard Euro model forecast.

Interestingly, the Euro model's newest iteration--an AI-enhanced ensemble called the ECMWF-AIFS--is showing widespread 6" for all of the Berkshires. It will be fun to see who wins the battle of the model wars come Wednesday.

Welcome to the party, AI-enhanced Euro model!

We see no need to move the numbers on the Confidence Meter just yet. We are really starting to like the potential start to the storm--5 AM on Tuesday--which could lead to many snow days because of the threat of terrible road conditions at the end of the school day. At least that's what the optimists in the office are hoping for.

We'll be dialing in on the timing and track as we get more information tonight and tomorrow.

Possible Nor'easter Next Week

In our last post we presented a less than rosy forecast for the first week of December. Well, that forecast could be completely wrong as models are now showing a chance for a nor'easter for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Here's what the latest runs of the models are showing:

The Euro model (Friday PM run).

The North American model (Friday PM run).

The North American model (the GFS) is definitely out of its mind, but even if the storm performs 50% of what the model is showing, we're still in for a full day and evening of accumulating snow.

We do like that the models are starting to move toward agreement about the track of the storm. If we put the two models together, a 3-6" storm is a realistic scenario.

The GSD staff is now on full alert and we'll be updating about this storm daily.

Thanksgiving Week Forecast -- Still Waiting For A Storm

Happy Thanksgiving Week! We made it. And with this late Thanksgiving date this year, before we know we'll be on Holiday break for December. Time will fly because we'll be having fun.

This year there are 17 school days between Thanksgiving break and the December holiday break. And this means 17 chances for a snow day.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the first week of December is not that inspiring, but we'll get to the long-range forecast in a minute.

First, what can we expect for our Turkey Day week? After a good dousing of rain Tuesday night (close to half an inch), things will really warm up on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s. It will still be gloomy, and it will also be very blustery. We could see some more rain Wednesday evening, but temps will return to more normal levels for this time of year on Thursday and gradually work their way down to the 30s for the weekend. 

Thanksgiving Day does look dry so everyone should be able to get outside for their pre-feasting exercise.

If you want snow this week, head west! This snow forecast is through Friday morning.

Locations west of here will see plenty of snow at the end of the week. We in the Berkshires might see a few lake effect flakes on Friday but otherwise we'll stay dry.  Over the weekend low temps at night time will be in the mid-20s, which will allow for plenty of snow-making at your favorite local ski facility.

We will have rain to end the long weekend and then winter sets in for the first week of December. High temps that week will be around freezing, and waiting at the bus stop will be slightly uncomfortable as each day will start with the mercury around 20 degrees.

Unfortunately, we are not seeing any bursts of precipitation during the cold(ish) snap in early December. Sunny skies will prevail for the first part of the week. 

So enjoy your time off this week, and keep thinking snowy thoughts for December!

Cold But Not Much Snow In The Forecast (week of Nov. 17)

The Veterans' Day snowfall came in slightly better than expected, and we registered 2.1 inches at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. We benefitted from lake effect action and upslope snow that produced a few moderate bands around midday.

As we turn our attention to the next ten (or so) days before the Thanksgiving break, we see plenty of cold air early in that stretch but not much snow in the forecast. Tonight (Saturday) we will see rain and then a very blustery Sunday. There are Winter Weather Advisories to our west and north for tonight, but too much warm air will be in place for us to get any wintry precipitation.

NWS Albany

We might see a few flakes Sunday night into Monday morning, but other than that, that's it for snow for a while. The models are sending mixed signals about possible precipitation around Thanksgiving, but no snow storms are expected for the next two weeks.

We can expect temps in the 30s early in the week and then gradually the thermometer will top out in the high 40s for the end of the week and next weekend. It looks like Thanksgiving week will feature high temps in the mid 40s with lows in the high 20s at night.

We wish we had a more encouraging forecast to share. We'll have to be patient through the Thanksgiving break and then see what December will bring.

Snow in the Berkshires This Week (Nov. 10-14)!

It certainly will feel wintery this week as a piece of the polar vortex will break off and usher in the coldest air of the season so far. Due to this abrupt change in the atmospheric conditions, we should see a very minor snowfall in a significant portion of the Berkshires this week.

Alas, it will not be enough to cause a delay or a snow day as it looks like the snow will fall on Veterans' Day, one that many have off from school and work.

According to our observations of weather maps and models, we are expecting snow showers Monday night and possible accumulating snow on Tuesday, especially in higher terrain. At most we could see 1.5", but realistically we'll see a light coating on grassy surfaces before it quickly melts away the next day.

The North American model's snow prediction for Tuesday. Not much there. This image comes from the Sunday afternoon run of the model.

Just how cold will it be? Most of the week we'll see highs around 40, plus or minus a few degrees, but Tuesday will be particularly chilly. The northern half of the Berkshires and the hill towns will not likely get above freezing. And that's a major reason why snow is in the forecast for Tuesday. 

This brief weather-maker is not really anything to get too excited about, but it's always fun to see those first flakes of the year and remind us that the holiday season is just around the corner.

Think snow!

Welcome to Winter 2025-26! Let the Flakes Fly

The Greylock Snow Day staff cordially welcomes you back to all the flake following madness that we are expecting for the winter of 2025-26. It's great to be back and have all you loyal readers back "dialed in" on the wintry weather in store for us.

The weather pattern was active in October with one nor'easter and an almost one to end the month. Rain totals were above normal for the month (over 4.5 inches of rain compared our typical 2.8 inches). It's unusual that we had no snow at all as we usually get flurries or snow showers at some point, but we did not register any frozen precipitation at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown prior to Halloween.

Image courtesy of Northeast Regional Climate Center (at Cornell).

With the clocks switching back this weekend, it's time to start thinking seriously about our up-coming winter. Temps are starting to drop below freezing in the overnight hours, so we know snow and other frozen precipitation will soon be falling in our neck of the woods.

The long-range winter forecast for New England is only moderately encouraging. This winter we will be feeling the effects of a La Nina pattern, which generally means that temps will be slightly high for southern New England but colder for northern New England. Also, generally La Nina usually means a slightly wetter winter.

Translating this info into snow storms is tricky. Typically, snow totals be normal or slightly above normal for the winter when La Nina is in effect. Because of the increased chances for precipitation but the warmer temps, we will probably see several storms start out as snow change over to sleet then all rain. Also, we may get a moderate or heavy snow storm but then see the snow melt away in the following days. The good news about a La Nina winter is the increased chances for precipitation and storms.

According to two reliable models (the North American and the Euro), there is the chance for measurable Monday or Tuesday, November 10 and 11. The Euro is showing a possible 2-3" snowfall for Tuesday. The GFS (North American) is showing a more substantial event (see below). We'll keep an eye on it, but it's been our history with the models that they are typically shakier early in the season than in the middle of winter.

The Saturday (11/1) afternoon run of the North American model for Monday, November 10th.

Chance for Delays: Monday, April 7

The cool and wet pattern continues, and tonight into Monday we might see measurable snow. We've been flirting with snow in our area the last few storms, and tonight we finally might see the ground covered again.

Because it's so late in the season, we are not at all confident that schools will see delays tomorrow. The roads have warmed up, and this system is not going to produce all that much moisture. But the timing is excellent and it could very well be messy for the morning commute.

NWS Albany. Notice that this forecast is through Wednesday AM. More accumulating snow showers are possible Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

NWS Albany is telling us that areas above 500' of elevation are the likeliest to see measurable snow. The usual suspects in the eastern portions of the county will again have the better chance for a delay.

Snow should start to fall around 4 AM and continue until 11 AM. Hopefully it will start a little earlier than 4 AM because we'll need several hours of wet snow for it to eventually accumulate on the roads.

After much deliberation, we're going to go with a 15% chance for a delay tomorrow. Most schools will have a full day, but we might see a few districts all their students to sleep in for a few extra hours.

Spring Is Here; Delays Possible for Monday, March 24

Welcome back to GSD, followers of the flake! It's been a spell since our last update. We thought about sending out an APB for last Thursday night/Friday morning's snow, but we had a strong feeling the roads were too warm to generate any delays Friday morning. After all, did hit 70 in many parts of the Berkshires just a day before.

But enough with the old news chit chat. 

We have a developing situation that could lead to delays for some public school students tomorrow (Monday). The Berkshires have a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight through late morning tomorrow. The timing for this small storm is chef's-kiss-terrific. And the reason this disturbance has an Advisory is a prediction for ice in some areas. If you are a fan of snow days and delays, then ice is your friend.

NWS Albany

Also, for this storm there is more cold air in place tonight than there was on Friday. This means roads will be colder and could slick up: inconveniently for bus drivers, but conveniently for students who wouldn't mind sleeping in on a Monday. These various factors that are in place tare making this storm much more intriguing from a prediction standpoint. 

NWS Albany

Unfortunately, because it's late March, we are not too bullish on this storm. Any schools/districts with high elevation towns (over 1000') have a much better chance for delays than valley schools. So this means eastern Berkshire districts (north, central, and south) will have a much greater chance for delays than schools more anchored to route 7. 

We think west/central schools have a 10% chance for a delay and eastern schools/districts have a 35% chance. That's not much but at least it's something.

If you have read this post all the way to here, spread the word. This one might sneak up on a few people.

Late Winter Blahs -- Snowcast for the week March 3-9

We picked up a quick inch yesterday (Saturday) as the cold front moved through and immediately changed the spring-like temperatures to that familiar deep winter feeling. Single digits were the norm for Berkshirites as we arose this morning.

Unfortunately, the cold air will not hold and we are in for a midweek warm-up. A storm with a lot of moisture will move through the area on Wednesday. Temps that day will be close to 50, so we are looking at a soaker of a rain storm. Over an inch of liquid is expected in western Mass.

Temps will return to normal over the weekend and again very light snow showers could occur. Not enough snow will fall to merit any discussion.

The long-range forecast is not entirely disappointing. The North American model is showing 1-2 inches for the weekend as well as on Tuesday, March 11. The Euro is showing lesser amounts for those storms, but it does predict a whopper of a storm for Friday, March 14. That would be an ideal day for a snow storm to break up the one month of the school year with no holidays.

Stay dry on Wednesday, and hopefully next week we'll have a big storm to get excited about.

The Euro for Friday, March 14. Daily prayers to the snow gods are recommended.

Delays for Thursday, Feb. 27

We have only about half an inch of snow at the GSD Home Office, so that means delays are few and far between this morning. Here's the list:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Emma Miller 

Delays Possible -- Thursday, Feb. 27

We hope everyone has enjoyed the spring-like temps these past few days. It has been nice to shed the heavy winter coat and see the sun set later and later.

But winter sure ain't over, and we have a possible messy commute in store for tomorrow (Thursday), especially for those in the northern and high elevation towns of the county.

A clipper system will move in late tonight. Temps will be right around freezing so any precip that falls should come down as wet snow for several hours. Because roads have been warm lately, it will take a while for snow to accumulate on them. Total snow expected is 1" in areas south of I-90, 1-2" in areas north, and 2-3" in the northeast hilltowns. So, the usual suspects in those areas have a better chance of a delay: the hilltown elementary schools, Central Berkshire, and Hoosac Valley.

NWS Albany

The "glass half full" approach is that the timing looks good for snow to be falling through the "witching hours" (5-7 AM) in North County. The "glass half empty" outlook is that we are discouraged by the lack of cold air in place. The changeover to rain could happen around daybreak, which would limit delays on Thursday.

All in all it's a low confidence delay scenario. A few schools will get delays but most in the county will be in session for the entire day.

(But the past two Thursdays (before public school vacation) we were wrong in a good way, so will the third time be the charm?)

Snowcast -- Week of Feb. 24

The end of public school vacation week has brought milder and more predictable weather, but now we turn our attention to the school week ahead (starting on Monday, February 24).

Compared to the last few weeks, we are expecting milder weather and minor clipper systems to impact our area. With the milder air, we will see wet snow and rain.

There are three chances for precipitation next week. Monday afternoon into Tuesday; Tuesday into Wednesday; and Thursday. All three are clipper-type systems (which means low snow totals).

Courtesy of Pivotal Weather. We're very much on track for an average Berkshire winter.

None of these storms are showing to be particularly potent according to the models. The Thursday storm is given a better chance by the North American model--2-3"--but the Euro is not as confident about measurable snow.

So it's looking like a full week of school, but we will keep half an eye open for the Thursday storm to see if it can pick up any momentum.

The good news is that both models are showing more moderate snow for Monday, March 3rd. 

Enjoy the warm-up this weekend!

Winter Storm Watch for Saturday/Sunday Feb. 15/16

This weekend is shaping up to be a messy one. The first half of Saturday will be fine, but then things go downhill rapidly in the afternoon and evening with snow heavy at times. The storm will have a long duration as well, and precipitation will continue to fall on Sunday. What is unclear is the form of the precip on Sunday.

There are two parts to the storm. A big low pressure system will move in from the Ohio valley and bring us our first shot of snow. It will come down heavy at times Saturday evening. But this storm's center is going to track to our west, which means warm air from the south is going push into our area. The warm air will lead to sleet and freezing rain and then eventually rain.

NWS Albany

As the warm-up is happening, a secondary low pressure system is going to form on the coast to our south. This system could counteract the warm up and bring cooler air back into play, which would change liquid precipitation back to frozen precipitation. The models are not in agreement about this secondary low.

So, the total inches of snow with this storm are going to be hard to predict. We should be around the 6" mark, but who knows what the sleet and rain will do to compress the snow. And then if we get more snow from the secondary low, then that will re-raise our totals on Sunday.

Were this storm to have arrived on a school day, snow days would have definitely been in order for all students.

Right now we expect snow to start around 2:00 PM on Saturday, and precipitation in some form will continue through Sunday afternoon.

Wind, Snow, Rain, Cold -- In That Order

Another icy Thursday led to a clean sweep of delays and cancellations for today. Impressive for only 0.2" of snow and a little sleet at the Home Office in Williamstown (!). The only schools in the County in session for the full day appeared to be MCLA and Williams.

All the public school students are off next week, so Superintendents are sighing with relief that they get 10 days off to not think about the weather. (It's way too soon but one model is showing heavy snow for the Monday after vacation.)

In the meantime, we have a wild four days coming up. Here's what you should know:

*A Wind Advisory goes into effect at 6 PM tonight. Some gusts will approach 50 mph. Yikes! Power outages are possible, so there is a chance for a random delay or cancellation from the wind.

*Heavy snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Temps will be near 32, so it will be a wet and greasy snow. Travel will be difficult Saturday evening. The Berkshires should see 4-8" of snow before the changeover.

*Snow transitions to rain Sunday morning and temps rise into the mid 30s. A mostly wet day with ice possible in a few pockets early on.

*Bitter cold returns on the back end of the storm Sunday night, which will kick up squalls and upslope snow. We might get to 20 degrees on Monday but Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the teens. Hopefully the rain does not wipe out the snow base and folks can get out for fun outdoor activities on vacation those days.

NWS Albany. We think these totals will trend slightly higher tomorrow and Saturday.

Tonight, be safe out there with the wind. And we'll be sure to update everyone on the Saturday/Sunday snow event tomorrow (or Saturday morning at the latest).

(And thanks to John S, Matt S, and Tattiya M for caffeine-fueling the GSD Staff for the next few weeks. Much appreciated!)

Delays and Closings for Thursday, Feb. 13

[Updated: Thurs. 7:17 AM] Another Thursday storm has ushered in delays and closings. The forecast for ice is once again having a positive impact. 

SNOW DAY:

Florida
Gabriel Abbott

Southwest Vermont SVU

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori
Berkshire Waldorf

Branches School of the Berkshires

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River

Hancock

Hillcrest

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

McCann

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond

Southern Berkshire

 

Winners and Losers for Thursday, Feb. 13

The Winter Weather Advisory is going to go into effect starting at 7 PM tonight, but in general snow total predictions are down slightly (1-2") and ice predictions have held steady (0.05-0.16).

Current signs point to delays for districts in the eastern half of the county. The northeastern elementary schools are likely to have delays. And Central Berkshire, Farmington River, and Hoosac Valley all have a higher chance for delays than other districts.

NWS Albany

Still, there is threat of ice through 8 AM, which means widespread delays are possible for all Berkshire County students. 

Because the precipitation will be light and road crews will be able to keep up with the precipitation, we are lowering the chance for delay from 50% to 40%. The schools mentioned above are in the 75% chance range, but schools to the west and south are in the 20% chance range.

Once we get through Thursday, we have a possible snow-to-rain event for the weekend. Current projection for liquid precipitation is 1" or more. More details about that storm tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory -- Thursday, Feb. 13

Not too much has changed with the forecast for the Wednesday night and Thursday storm. NWS Albany has predictably announced a Winter Weather Advisory that goes into effect at 7 PM Wednesday and ends at 1 PM on Thursday.

The models have adjusted snow totals down slightly (1-2"), but ice totals are marginally higher. The key is going to be the time of the changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Ground temps at the time of the first bus runs (7-ish) should still be below freezing, which means mixed precipitation is likely for the commute. Given last week's response to ice, chances for delays on Thursday are good.

North American model for Thursday at 6 AM. Pink/orange is freezing rain. Purple is sleet.

Students on the east-facing slopes of the County will have a better chance for a delay. Students in the north will have a slightly better chance than students in the south.

We don't think any Superintendents will make their call Wednesday night, so this will have to be a wake-up-and-see kind of morning.

At this point if you really are hoping for a delay, you want to root for the cold air to stay in place as long as possible.

Delays Possible for Thursday, Feb. 13

It's a new week and more snow is on the way. This week is shaping up to be very similar to last week because we are looking at a snow/sleet event for Thursday and a bigger storm for the weekend.

Once again, Thursday's storm looks to be light. The difference this week is that snow will fall late Wednesday night into Tuesday and could change over to sleet and freezing rain at daybreak. Even though we're only expecting to get 1-3", the morning commute could be a mess with the ice forecast, which is why we think delays are likely.

We'll probably see a Winter Weather Advisory by Wednesday. 

The North American model for Thursday. We probably will not see this much snow, but it's in the realm of possibility.

The storm for the weekend is complicated. Models are not in agreement on the track or on the type of precipitation. It will definitely start as snow Saturday afternoon and then from that point it's unclear. what will happen. The snow could continue or it could transition to mixed precipitation Saturday evening then rain on Sunday. The farther north you are, the better chance you will have for snow. 

The models are showing a range of 3" to 8", but that range will narrow as we get a better handle on the track.

Saturday afternoon and night look like bad times for travel.

We'll have more about Thursday's situation in the days ahead.

Winter Storm Warning -- Saturday/Sunday, Feb. 8-9

We have good ol' fashioned snowstorm headed our way for Saturday night. NWS Albany announced a Winter Storm Warning for our area, which means 5+ inches is almost guaranteed. Get your snow boots and shovels ready!

Saturday will be cold but snow-free. Snow will begin around 7 PM and last through the morning hours of Sunday. Total accumulations are expected to be in the 6-8" range. If Sunday were a school day we would be looking at snow days for all students in the Berkshires.

Accuweather

Temps will be in the low 20s when the bulk of the snow is coming down. This means the snow will be light and fluffy and should be able to be shoveled fairly easily.

Any Sunday morning events will likely be cancelled or postponed until later in the day.

NWS Albany

As we look at next week--the week before vacation for most--we have a very active period from Tuesday through Thursday. Our best guess right now is delays in play for Wednesday and delays/snow days possible for Thursday. 

There is uncertainty about how north or south these storms will track, which is why things are very much up in the air for those days. But the active pattern and cold temps should allow students to get a shortened day either Wednesday or Thursday.

Winter Storm Watch for Super Bowl Weekend

A proper winter storm is on the way for this weekend. But before we delve into the details, a few words about today's storm.

First, we were dead wrong. We greatly underestimated the worry that sleet induced, but we also think an element of softness crept into the proceedings. It's rare to cancel school (the night before for many districts) due to a Winter Weather Advisory only calling for 1-3" of snow. 

Perhaps the lack of snow days in January (for most districts) meant that Superintendents felt they had banked a few snow days and could afford to spend one today. Regardless of the circumstances that led to a clean sweep, the Berkshires were not unique in going with snow days. Most schools from Albany eastward cancelled school either Wednesday night or by 6 AM on Thursday. For the record, snow ended at the GSD Home Office by 11 AM, but the commute for the elementary schoolers would have been treacherous and resulted in angry parent phone calls and emails. 

NWS Albany -- weekend storm snowcast

We don't like to be wrong--especially because many of you value our opinion--but thank goodness we were wrong in the right direction.

Onward to the next storm. This one definitely looks more substantial. As of 3 PM today (Thursday), NWS Albany has hoisted the Winter Storm Watch flag. Because the Watch calls for 7+ inches, we will likely see a Winter Storm Warning announced by tomorrow afternoon.

North American model for the weekend storm.

The models are more or less in agreement. The Euro favors a more southerly storm and lower snow totals (4-5"), but the North American is showing 7-9". NWS Albany is clearly going with the North American model right now (see above).

Everybody will be able to get their Saturday activities in, but anything scheduled before noon on Sunday will likely be cancelled. The storm will be a fast mover and should wrap up by the mid-morning hours.

As for the next chance for a snow day, both models are showing snow for Thursday and Friday next week. The North American model is showing snow for later in the day on Thursday and into Friday, but the Euro give us another midday Thursday storm. Both models are showing 5+ inches of snow so that's encouraging and will be the center of our focus in the week before public school February break.

The current Euro model for 1 PM on Thursday, Feb. 13

Cancellations for Thursday, Feb. 6

[Updated: Thurs. 6:50 AM] If you don't have a snow day today, then your Superintendent is one hard-nosed individual. It looks like a clean sweep for County snow days today. Our instant analysis is that the word "sleet" spooked school heads and it all just snowballed. 

Snow should start by 8 AM and end as drizzle later this afternoon. We are still expecting 2-3" total.

SNOW DAY:

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College (decision about night classes to be made at 1 PM)

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Emma Miller

Farmington River

Florida

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

Hoosick Falls (NY)

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

McCann

MCLA (including evening classes)

Mount Greylock
North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshire

Snowday or Bust -- Update on the Feb. 6 Storm

From NWS Albany, we have received a Winter Weather Advisory. Terms of the arrangement are 1-3 inches of snow with some sleet all occurring between the hours of 4 AM and 6 PM on Thursday.

The GSD Staff is still not enamored with this storm. While it's encouraging that sleet will mix in, that sleet will fall mid-morning and should not impact either the morning or afternoon bus runs.

The two big prohibitive issues are a lack of snow and the late arrival (see below). Even when we look at the high end potential of this storm, it's still barely 4". So, it's likely that almost all of the snow will fall while students are at school. The elementary school bus runs/drop offs could be slippery, but few superintendents are going to worry much about that if it's not snowing for the high school runs.

NWS Albany

Your only real chance for a snow day tomorrow is if your superintendent is in a very generous mood. So despite what your weather app might be showing--Wunderground continues to show 5" for the GSD Home Office in Williamstown--we really think this will be a light snow-to-sleet-to-rain event that will start late and end in the early afternoon.

  

Thoughts on the Thursday Storm (Feb. 6)

Sunday night's storm brought many delays to our brethren to the west as many New York schools phoned in the two-hour delay on Monday. No such luck for Berkshirites.

All of our attention is on a weather-maker for Thursday. We know many of you could use just one measly little snow day to break up the week, but, alas, we are finding more not to like about this storm than like.

As the former leader of the free world would say, here's the deal. It will snow early Thursday morning and continue through part of the day. There is a good chance snow will change to mixed precipitation and then rain. The bad news is that meteorologists are just not seeing that much liquid precipitation associated with this storm. The models are showing around 2-3 inches, which just doesn't seem to be enough to merit cancelling school.

Euro model for snow on Thursday.

The timing is also precarious. Some indicators are showing that the storm will start before daybreak on Thursday. Others push the start to 7 or 8 AM. The only real way we'll see delays or snow days is if snow begins to fall in that 4 AM to 6 AM window. We also will need a forecast of sleet and freezing rain. If ice were to enter meaningfully into the conversation, then, yes, some schools will have delays and or snow days.

Models are relatively in agreement, so we don't think there will be any big swings in the forecast. Right now our official position is "don't get your hopes up." We will continue to monitor the situation and hope to have better news tomorrow.

Snowcast for the Week (Feb 3-7)

An Alberta Clipper is on the way for Sunday (Feb. 2). Later today we probably will see NWS Albany announce a Winter Weather Advisory for, at least, Northern Berkshire, but likely the whole county. One reliable model is showing 1-3" and the other is showing 2-4". So, it looks like just a few inches of snow overall. It should start around 7 PM but quickly end around 2 AM. Delays for Monday are highly unlikely.

Despite the very frigid temps this morning (Sun.), we will see a warm-up well into the mid-30s by tomorrow. After tonight's snow, on Monday we are expecting a dry but cloudy day. We also could see a short period of drizzle and light rain before a changeover to wet snow Monday night, especially in high terrains. This snow will not accumulate that much and is not a threat to cause delays on Tuesday.

This is the rarely used (by us) NAM model for tonight's clipper. The NAM is another US model that's usually accurate within 24 hours of a storm's arrival.

As for later in the week, we have our eye on a Wednesday night/Thursday situation. The North American model is showing 3-5" but the Euro is indicating only a dusting. There is model inconsistency about the precipitation type as well, with the Euro favoring a wetter storm. We're definitely have higher hopes for delays and/or snow days for Thursday because mixed precipitation (i.e. ice) may enter the forecast. More about that storm in the next few days.

As we wrote briefly about yesterday, there is a chance for a bigger storm next weekend. Sadly, it will fall on the weekend. Good news for the skiers; bad news for the snow day fiends.

Drive safely this evening, and cross those fingers for the Wednesday/Thursday storm to develop in our favor.

Active Pattern for the First Half of February

Happy February, all you flake followers. We've been studying the models this morning, and it would appear that things are starting to percolate on the snow front.

Here is the Cliff Notes version:

*Snow Sunday night (2") but it will end too soon for most students to have a delay.
*North American model shows moderate snow for Thursday (Feb. 6) but the Euro does not. Local meteorologists are eyeing light snow to wintry mix.
*Both show moderate/heavy snow (6+) for Sunday/Monday (Feb. 9/10).
*Another possible moderate storm on deck for Thursday, Feb. 13.

You can never get too excited about what the models are saying 7 and 10 and 14 days out, but all we need is one of these storms to come through in the next two weeks as we limp into February break. After such a promising December, it would be sad if we do not get one snow day in the January to February break period.

North American model for Sunday/Monday Feb. 9/10.

We'll deal with the Thursday and Feb. 9/10 storms next week, but we can tell you that after a very cold Sunday morning (negative single digits), we will see clouds move in on Sunday and the snow should start to fall shortly after nightfall. But it end well before the morning commute, which is why confidence in delays is low.

Stay warm and get ready for some shoveling over the next few weeks.

 

(D)icy Morning Commute on Friday

The second Winter Weather Advisory of the week has been posted for early Friday morning through Friday evening.

We have not had many ice threats this winter, but tomorrow one is shaping up. The concern is surface level temps below freezing and rain moving into the area Friday morning. When that happens, we get freezing rain, which is the more dangerous of the two ice forms (sleet being the other one).

NWS Albany

The big question is timing. Precipitation should move in to the Berkshires south to north. Right now it looks like we'll see icing around 7 AM and it will steadily creep north. If the storm system accelerates even slightly, there could be enough time for schools to call a delay.

Ice is typically harder to pin down so chances for delays tomorrow are low. Contrary to most storms this season, southern districts and schools will have the better chance for delays.

Stay alert as some Superintendents may be forced to make later-than-normal decisions about any delays.

Delays for Wednesday, Jan. 29

Only a few inches have fallen at the GSD Home Office and roads look relatively clear. More snow later today but it will be less than an inch. But we do have a few delays to report:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Emma Miller
MCLA (10 AM start) 

Alberta Clipper On the Way (Winter Weather Advisory North County)

Despite the forecast for light snow this morning (Tuesday), very little fell and stuck to the ground. Fortunately, we do not have to wait long for more snow as an Alberta Clipper will move through late tonight and drop a few inches on the Berkshires.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for Northern Berkshire only at this point. The Advisory is calling for 2-5" with gusty winds as well. Most of the snow should fall before the Wednesday commute, but due to the unsettled air, lingering snow showers, squalls, and upslope snows are possible throughout the day, which is why the Advisory extends to 1 AM Thursday.

NWS Albany

With the the bulk of the snow slated to fall between 10 PM and 4 AM, we would imagine most road crews will be able to get on top of their plowing and keep roads safe for school buses. But school districts north and east of Pittsfield will definitely have an elevated chance for a delay.

The GSD staff will be surprised if no schools have delays tomorrow. Equally surprising would be any full snow days called. So, depending on whether your are north or south, or are in a high elevation town or in the valley, that will determine your chances of a delay for Wednesday.

We will post early in the AM if any districts shorten the school day.

Early Week Snow (Jan. 27-31)

On one hand it's hard to believe this is the last week of January, but January also feels like it has been going on forever. How can that be? (The staff would say that's further proof of their first-rate intelligence.)

But let's talk snow. We do not have a lot in the forecast but we do have some and it bears watching as the timing could work to our benefit and generate a few delays.

First up is a chance for snow during the Tuesday morning commute. While we will be lucky to see an inch from this minor system, the timing is excellent. Unfortunately, most of the snow will be generated by squalls and squalls are notoriously difficult to predict (both timing and location). As a result, we have low confidence that we'll see delays on Tuesday but it's possible a school or two will see one.

Not a lot to work with here for the Tuesday AM commute (NWS Albany).

There's a better chance for delays on Wednesday morning. An Alberta clipper will move through our area Tuesday night. This clipper will produce more snow (1-3 inches), so the chances are higher for delays, but still it will be very light and road crews should be able to stay on top of it. But we like the timing and think a smattering of districts will consider delaying the start on Wednesday.

As for the long-range forecast, the models are showing possible heavier snowfalls for the next two Mondays--February 3 and February 10. The Euro and North American are not quite in agreement on these two storms, but it's possible we are seeing a "wave of three" developing. The wave of three is a series of three similar coastal storms over a three-week period. (A memorable wave of three storms occurred in Boston in February of 2015 which led to a record seasonal snowfall total that year.) In no way are expecting record-breaking snow over the next few weeks, but we could be seeing a pattern for more and bigger storms. February is, after all, our historically snowiest month.

Freeze Delays for Wednesday, Jan. 22 (Updated)

Updated at 8:15 AM Wednesday

NWS Albany

Several school districts have decided to delay the start of school or cancel due to the forecast for temperatures well below zero and wind chill values around -25 degrees. Here is the current list of delays and cancellations.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Emma Miller

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock

Hoosac Valley

Lenox

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pittsfield

Richmond

FREEZE DAY:

Central Berkshire

Farmington River

Winter Storm Warning for Sunday, Jan. 19

Updated 9:00 PM, Sat. Jan. 18

NWS Albany has announced a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County for Sunday into Monday. It's a fast mover, but the current intel suggests we'll see 6+ inches of snow up and down the County.

Most schools are off on Monday, but the commute will be slow for the general working community.

NWS Albany

Snow is currently expected to start on Sunday at 3:00 and, as we stated yesterday, it will end fairly quickly: before sunrise on Monday. Monday will be a great day for sledding, skiing, snowperson-making, etc., but it will be getting colder and colder and downright Januar-ary.

HRRR Model snow total by early Monday.

We'll update later today should there be any shifts to the track of the storm. But all should get ready for a good ol' fashioned New England snowstorm.  

Shovels Ready: Snow Sunday Night

As you can tell by the lack of action at this very weather outlet, January has been slow in getting going with measurable snowfall. Sure, we've had plenty of flurries--in fact, it feels like it's been flurrying for weeks--but we are in a storm-less rut.

We could be pulling out of that rut this weekend, as we have shovel-able snow on the way for Sunday, and the long-range forecast is showing two eye-brow raising storm possibilities in the upcoming twelve days.

The forecast for Sunday night's storm keeps getting snowier. We were seeing just an inch or two a few days ago, but now meteorologists and models are indicating a possible 3-5" for the Berkshires. 

A low pressure system will track along the coast on Sunday. Cold air is in place, so the farther north the storm tracks, the more snow we will get. If the low veers north, we could get to Winter Storm Watch potential, but more likely is a Winter Weather Advisory will be announced on Saturday or early Sunday morning.

NWS Albany

The Sunday night event will be a quick one. Snow moves in in the late afternoon (between 4-6 PM), and it should be finished before the morning commute. For those who have to work on Monday (MLK Jr. Day), you may need an extra few minutes for your drive.

After Sunday, we will have a bitterly cold few days. Monday through Thursday will be frigid. The worst days will be Tuesday and Wednesday when high temps will be in the low teens. Slow your roll on any freeze day thoughts as we will get below 0 on Tuesday night but only by a few degrees.

As for snow, we see possible storms for Monday the 27th and/or Wednesday the 29th. For now we'll temper expectations given how far out these storms are, but we're definitely on the case.

Let's hope the storm tracks further north on Sunday. While we're on track to reach our average snow fall total, we need January to yield better results.

 

Winter Weather Advisory Starts the New Year

Happy New Year, snow lovers!

The year is starting off on a positive note with snow in the forecast. NWS Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire County and a Wind Advisory for the entire County. But all in the Berkshires should wake up to snow on the ground on Thursday. 

Some school districts are still on vacation on Thursday, but most schools are back in session. We are expecting delays for some but not all districts. Pittsfield, Central Berkshire, Hoosac Valley, North Adams and the mountain elementary schools all have a better chance for a delay than Lee, Lenox, Berkshire Hills, and Southern Berkshire.

NWS Albany

The Advisory kicks in at 4 PM, which means snow should start falling around 5. Higher elevations will once again be favored to get more snow. The current forecast is for 3-6" in Northern Berkshire and 1-3" in Southern Berkshire. Snow should continue well into the day on Thursday.

This is not a traditional snow storm (i.e. Alberta Clipper or nor'easter). The strong storm that brought heavy rain last night is now swirling around up in Canada. That swirling will create lake effect snow and upslope snow. (Check out the forecast for towns on the eastern edge of Lake Ontario--2-4 feet in some spots!)

These kinds of "residual effects" snow events can be very unpredictable. Squalls can come through and elevate snow totals. We can also get locked in to a prolonged period of upslope snow. On that note, NWS Albany always posts a high end map that shows the potential if the storm over performs. Here it is:

NWS Albany

If the storm does over perform, then obviously snow days are likely for all districts. But putting hope in "if" is a dangerous game.

The GSD Staff has mixed feelings about this storm. The timing looks good in that it should be snowing during the witching hour (i.e. when Superintendents make their decisions), but we are less enthused about the amount of snow. So we will go with a fairly generic 50% chance of delays for schools in the north and 30% chance for schools below Pittsfield. And everybody gets a 15% chance for a snow day.

We'll post later tonight if conditions improve or degrade in any significant way. Enjoy the last day of vacation, and may your prayerful thoughts be snowy ones.