Snowy Turkey Day

Good news, flake followers. The approaching storm is beginning to show signs that it will intensify, which means all of Berkshire County should see snow at some point on Thanksgiving Day.

Those who like to get in a little exercise before the feasting begins are going to have to brave snowy and possibly rainy conditions. Most folks will wake up to snow, but as the temps rise gradually we should see a transition to rain in locations under 1000'. Then we expect snow to return as we make our way toward evening.

NWS Albany

So, it will be slushy and wet but we can expect to see 1-4 inches (south to north) and upward of 7-9 inches in our higher elevation towns on the east side of the County. Snow should taper toward midnight, and Friday is now looking like a dry day.

One thing to watch out for is snow banding, which creates a period of intense snow fall. Some of the shorter range models are showing that this storm is capable of producing banding. It could come down as heavy snow for an our or so which could cancel out the changeover to rain and raise our snow totals considerably.

For what it's worth, both the Euro and North American models are showing 6-10 inches for the northern part of the county and 2-5 for the southern half. The GSD Staff thinks these predicted totals are too high, but it does bear watching.

Those planning to travel Thursday morning would be advised to try to head out today, if possible, as road travel looks to be challenging between 6 AM and 11 AM.

Turkey Day Snow

Many of you may have heard the word "nor'easter" mentioned in weather forecasts over the last few days. Yes, a nor'easter could possibly form for Thanksgiving and carry into the early hours of Friday, but it likely will be a weak one.

Should this storm develop--and the professional forecasters put this is a low probability scenario--it would mostly affect the eastern half of New England. We would see steady snow but not anything to get super excited about (3-5 inch range).

The North American model (snow prediction through Friday evening).

The good news is that we should see snow in parts of the Berkshires on Thursday no matter what the nor'easter does. The bad news is that it will impact the busy travel morning for those day-trippers looking to connect with Grandma for the holiday. 

As is common for this time of year, those in high elevation towns (above 1000') will be the ones more likely to see accumulating snow. Those of you who live in areas below 1000' will likely see a steady cold rain with wet snow mixing in. Because daytime temps are still well above freezing, don't expect much accumulation on the roads along Route 7 except in the usual high spots.

If the nor'easter somehow does over-perform and become much stronger than anticipated, it will pull cold air in from the north and northwest which will increase the likelihood of snow for all elevations in the Berkshires. If that situation develops, expect snow in the afternoon and evening on Thursday. But, again, forecasters are not optimistic about this potential development.

The European model (snow prediction through Friday evening). This model might have gotten into the holiday punch a few days early.

Whatever happens on Thursday, cold air looks to lock in over the weekend and into next week. Highs will be in the low 30s starting Saturday. Lows will be in the high teens. Winter!

We'll keep you posted should the models reveal more indicators that the storm will strength, especially for those holiday travelers. Both models are now showing snow, which they were not doing yesterday. And that's a good sign for all of us snow lovers.

First Flakes of the Season -- November 21-23

Finally, we have some wet weather. This is tremendous news for the folks working hard to contain the Butternut Fire in Great Barrington and Sheffield. A good soaking today (Thursday) will certainly help get things under control.

Because of the cool air in place and the low pressure developments associated with this storm, we are expecting to see the first flakes of the season in Berkshire County today and tomorrow. Unfortunately, not everyone will see the white stuff, but those denizens of high elevation towns could see an inch of slushy wet snow.

(NWS Albany)

Because ground temps have been well above freezing, we can't expect to see much accumulation even in the eastern hill towns. But the good news is that the overall pattern seems to be shifting, and we should see more opportunities for much needed rain and snow in the next few weeks.

Other than the few wet flakes we might see tonight and tomorrow, we are looking at the potential for snow next weekend. With even colder air in place in the second half of next week (high 30s/low 40s), we could see a minor snow event Friday evening into Saturday morning of Thanksgiving weekend.

Euro forecast map for Friday/Saturday (Nov. 29-30)

A (Sad) Song of (No) Ice And Fire

Here we are in mid-November and nary a snowflake in sight. Alas. 

It's not a great sign that we have a better chance of a seeing a forest fire than a flurry or two. And still there are those who think irreparable climate change is a hoax.

This is not exactly the hot start to the winter of '24-25 that we were hoping for. Temperatures continue to run well above normal during the day. It's small consolation, but at least we are consistently getting below freezing in the overnight hours.

The hard-working staff at GSD is scouring the forecast maps for any signs of winter life. While it is certainly nothing to get worked up about, we could see some wet snow next weekend. It will likely fall in high elevation towns and it's unlikely to accumulate on roads, but it's a start. 

If it snows, it will come on the back edge of a low pressure system headed our way on Thursday and Friday. The North American and European models are not in agreement, but we could see wet snow showers at some point on Friday and then again on Sunday. The North American model currently is showing a potential for snow in Massachusetts (heavier snow central) on Sunday, but this is a low confidence projection.

North American model (GFS) for Sunday morning (Nov. 24)

The pattern does seem to be shifting slightly with increased chances for precipitation toward the end of next week and thereafter.

The holiday season is nearly upon us. Keep snowy thoughts in your mind. Old Man Winter will get here eventually.