School Cancellations and Mapfest!

Only 1.3" in Williamstown so far, but it's a clean sweep for Berkshire County. Here is the list of schools who have cancelled or will start the day with a delay on Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warning for Berkshire County (Tuesday, Feb. 28)

After a terrible January (winter weather-wise), February is going to end on a high note.

NWS Albany has moved from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. The snow will actually start a little later than was predicted yesterday. It should start in Berkshire County around 9 PM--give or take a half hour--which is even better news for the timing of the storm. 

We're now close enough to the storm's onset to look at some of the short-range models, and what they are suggesting almost guarantees snow days for the well-rested students of Berkshire County. 

Moderate and heavy snow bands will impact our area between 9 PM and 5 AM (a half inch to 1 inch per hour). The snow rates will taper in the morning hours before ending around dusk on Tuesday. Low end amounts will be 4-5 inches in the southwest corner of the County; high end amounts will be double digits in the northeast mountain towns.

NWS Albany's latest snow prediction.

Almost certainly, the folks in the eastern, higher elevations towns should have a snow day--the northeastern mountain elementary schools, Hoosac Valley, Central Berkshire, and Farmington River. 

The northern districts also will have enough snow to merit a full day off--North Adams, Mount Greylock, Pine Cobble, Hancock, and McCann. 

There's an outside shot that Pittsfield, Lenox, Lee don't get quite enough snow (due to their lower elevation) and see a delay instead of a delay, but we're really not expecting that outcome. 

The only iffy districts would be Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills. There could be a changeover to rain there that could lead to delays instead of full snow days, but that would only happen if the storm is a real bust (which it probably won't be).

The short-range NAM with its prediction (total as of 6 PM Tuesday)

Given the perfect timing, the Winter Storm Warning, and the cold air in place, we think that some Superintendents will get out ahead of this thing and call in the snow day tonight. Fingers are crossed that you hear the sweet, sweet sound of the Robocall tonight.

Winter Storm Watch for Monday Night and Tuesday (Feb. 27-28)

One of the earlier items on the "Are We Going To Get a Snow Day?" checklist is the Winter Storm Watch. And as of early Sunday morning, we can put a big check next to that one.

The Watch is for all of Berkshire County and starts at 4 PM Monday and ends at 10 PM on Tuesday. In terms of timing and duration for a storm, you can't get much better. That is, of course, if you want a snow day for Tuesday.

NWS Albany

The models are still in a tussle about the amount of precipitation and track of the main snow-producing low pressure system. The Euro is still lower on snow totals and pushes the storm further south and east. The North American is showing the more favorable northerly track for the storm. 

WWLP Springfield.

Either way it goes, we are looking at 3-4" for everyone in the County. If the North American model comes through, then we'll have many locations reporting in with 6+ inches.

Accuweather.

And if this storm doesn't pan out, we could see another blast of moderate or heavy snow on Friday. Snow days and early releases are possible for the Friday storm.

Latest Snowstorm Developments for Tuesday (Feb. 28)

We're going to keep this update fairly short as there isn't too much more to add other than A) it's going to snow staring Monday; B) models are in relative agreement; C) plows will be necessary; D) the timing is excellent.

NWS Albany has come out of the gates strongly with their first prediction map. This seems a little out of character for them as they tend to wait 36 hours before the start to put out their snow maps. Hopefully they are not wish-casting with this storm, but we really like what they are indicating so far:

NWS Albany initial snow map for Tuesday (Feb. 28).

The reason we at GSD are bullish on full snow day decisions for Tuesday is the excellent timing. With snow beginning on Monday night and lasting throughout the day on Tuesday, it will be hard for road crews to find a window to make the roads completely clear for buses to run their routes. Delays and early releases will likely not be a part of Superintendents' calculi when they make their decision, with a possible exception for Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills.

It's not a no-brainer yet, but if the current meteorological thinking holds true, most students in Berkshire County will have a shortened school week.

Snowstorm For Tuesday

We hope your hatches were battened down today. The wind should die down as we near midnight (Friday).

Before we get into discussion of the main course offering to start the work week, we should have a soupçon of snow to enjoy Saturday afternoon and evening. Most will see a dusting or up to an inch, but roads could be slippery for a stretch of time.

The Friday runs of the models are still showing a significant snowstorm that will begin Monday night and last throughout the day on Tuesday. There should be enough cold air in place for snow, but some meteorologists are thinking some mixed precip could work its way in, especially in valley locations.

Today's Euro model for the Tuesday storm. Not as "juicy" but still enough snow to cancel school.

The Euro run of the model at noon today pushed some of the heavier snow to our south and west, but it still shows moderate snow for much of Berkshire County. The North American and Canadian models are both showing 6-10" for everyone in the County. 

But there are several moving parts with this storm--one low pressure system from the Ohio valley will give way to two coastal lows that will strengthen as they move northeast--so it's way to early to get locked in with a snow prediction.

We still are encouraged by what we're seeing and are still expecting to see several superintendents make the snow day call on Tuesday.

Kudos to Dan Brown of Western Mass News for getting the hype started for Tuesday with this very early map. Love the enthusiasm!

Cancellations for Thursday / Potential Big Storm For Tuesday

Good morning! It's great to see the return of winter. We have a lovely mix of sleet, rain and snow falling in Williamstown with just over 3" on the ground so far (as of 8 AM Thursday).

We do have a few delays and cancellations this morning. Pine Cobble and MCLA opted for the full snow day; BCC went with the delay. No change to the schedule for Williams College. Public schools are on vacation this week.

The sleet, rain, and snow will continue until noon today and then we'll see a few interesting developments. The temps will gradually--very gradually--start to drop from around 30 this afternoon to low single digits by Saturday morning. Also, there will be a short period of mixed precipitation Thursday night that could slick up the roads for a few hours (7 PM to 12 AM). 

Despite temperatures in the 20s for most of the day on Friday, it's going to feel a lot colder as strong winds move into the Berkshires. Wind Chill values on Friday and Friday night will be sub-zero due. NWS Albany has issued a Wind Advisory for the Berkshires for Friday with some gusts approaching 50 mph.

Saturday shapes up to be a classically cold winter day--highs around 20 for the day. But the wind will have subsided so it will be a good day to bundle up and get outside and enjoy what's left of this winter.

But the big news is a developing situation for Monday night into Tuesday. We caution folks from getting too amped up about a storm five days in advance, but what makes this (potential) storm a little bit different as that the Euro, the North American, and even the Canadian models are all showing a moderate to heavy snowfall. Initial indicators would suggest widespread snow days for students on Tuesday. The GSD Staff is putting all resources toward tracking this storm, so we'll have many more reports on its development over the weekend.

North American model (for Tuesday's storm)

European model.

Canadian model.

Wednesday Night: Not N-Ice

A Winter Weather Advisory is up for Northern Berkshire County for Wednesday night's storm. A few inches of snow are expected, but the bigger concern for travelers is ice. We could see sleet for several hours after midnight tomorrow. This means that the morning commute on Thursday could be slow and treacherous. Private school students may get a delay or snow day for Thursday.

NWS Albany

The snow (light at first) should begin around 4 PM. but the heavier snow will fall after dark and the sleet will kick in between 1 and 4 AM. 

The good news for public school students is that we have two chances for snow Monday and Wednesday of the week after vacation. We are monitoring it closely!

Snow (x2) On The Way

Things are coming into better focus for the snow events this week. Tuesday's snow looks relatively minor, but a moderate snowfall is possible for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Despite the 50-degree temperatures today (Monday), we should see snow up and down the county during the day tomorrow. NWS Albany shows the snow starting around 10 AM. Most locations will see an inch or so, with higher elevations in the east-facing slopes will see around 3 inches of snow. The snow should end well before midnight. 

Tuesday's snow.

The evening commute looks to be messy tomorrow night.

The snow for Wednesday night appears as if it will be more substantial, but this storm will be one of those ones where there is a sharp line for snow. Those above the line should see 4-6 inches; those below the line will see 1-2 inches then a changeover to rain. Right now the two preferred models are showing very different outcomes. The Euro is showing 6" above I-90 and 4" in southern portions of the County. The North American model is only showing 2" for the northern half of the county.

The Euro for the Wednesday/Thursday snow.

The forecast for the Wednesday night/Thursday storm will be in flux right up to the start of the storm. Even though it's vacation week, we are rooting for the Euro come through so we can squeeze out a few more weeks of skiing and outdoor winter activities.

Vacation Week Snow Events

This week will remind us that we still have several weeks of winter left. We are looking at two opportunities for snow this week.

Tuesday afternoon and evening we could see 1-3 inches of slushy wet snow in the northern half of Berkshire County. Any sports contests scheduled for that evening could be postponed.

Snow potential for Wednesday night/Thursday.

Then a more sizable storm moves into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This one has more punch behind it and could drop 3-6 inches on the County. If public school students were in session this week, a snow day prediction for Thursday would have been well within the realm of possibility. Also, Wednesday night games might need to be moved to earlier start times to beat the snow, but the storm onset time is very much up in the air at this point.

Travel Tuesday night and Thursday morning could be challenging. We'll have more to say about both of these storms once we see a few more runs of the models.

Historic Cold

One might think that the mild winter we have had so far has made this weekend's cold snap seem much worse than it actually is. You might say to yourself, "We use to see negative temps all the time. This really isn't so bad."

Well, it actually is so bad. Here are some highlights to show how historically severe the weather conditions were on Friday and Saturday morning:

*Mt. Washington recorded an all-time record low for wind chill at -109°F. Wind gusts were over 100 MPH, and the air temperature was recorded at -46°F.

*Boston's -10°F was its coldest since 1957.

*The summit at Whiteface Mountain recorded a -81°F wind chill.

*Folks in Maine were feeling "frost quakes" due the rapid freezing (and expansion) of water underground.

*Trees in northern Vermont were "exploding" due to rapid freezing and expansion, making a sound much like gunshots.

*We hit -17°F on the weather station at the GSD Headquarters in Williamstown.

Are we getting soft about the cold and freeze days and snow days? Generally, yes. But the facts don't lie: this round of cold and wind is indeed historic. But as quickly as it has come, it will leave. We should hit 40 degrees in most locations in Berkshire County by Sunday afternoon.

Freeze Day Announcements (Friday, Feb. 3)

The temperature has begun to plummet and will do so throughout the day today. It will bottom out tomorrow morning around sunrise. We are running a few degrees higher than expected in Williamstown, so hopefully the afternoon commute home for students will not be quite as frigid. The wind is as advertised and is blowing lustily this morning.

Boston and Worcester announced school closures for Friday yesterday, and Albany, Springfield, and Pittsfield have cancelled classes for the day. If you want a freeze day, it helps to have a higher population of walkers.

FREEZE DAY:

Pittsfield

Wind Chill Warnings For The Berkshires

Today (Thursday) offers us a pleasant winter day--sun through thin clouds, no wind, temps in the low 30s--but the looming frigid air mass that meteorologists have talked about all week is on our doorstep.

Friday is now looking to be the colder of the two days, but we still do not believe we'll see freeze delays or full freeze days. If we do, it means we've really gone soft in the last few years with regard to cold temperature.

Euro model wind chills for Saturday morning

The temperature will really start to plummet after midnight tonight. It will likely be in the low 20s when you go to bed. When you arise, it will be in the single digits. By the time you go home from school, it will be near 0 with strong winds making it feel like -30s. We've never ever seen a freeze release called before. Tomorrow could be the day. Any schools with a significant walking population might want to make sure rides can be arranged for the way home tomorrow.

After a low Saturday morning in the -10s and wind chill values approaching -40 degrees, we could warm all the way up to double digits by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be subsiding throughout the day but won't go away noticeably until Monday. Saturday night will be another cold one, but the warmth returns on Sunday: most Berkshire-ites should see 40 degrees that day.

Again, no snow is in sight. We'll probably lose our base next week as patches of grass begin to poke through due to melting and rain on Tuesday. We'll need another big storm if we're going to get back to skiing and backyard sledding in February and early March.