Snow Showers To Continue -- Delays Possible Monday (March 28)

It's going to look and feel like winter for a few days before a warm-up to more seasonable temperatures by the end of the week. Unfortunately, we're looking at another rain storm to close out March (Thursday into Friday morning).

Up here at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, we've had snow showers on-again-off-again all day. (Sunday). Those snow showers will continue throughout afternoon, and they could intensify after midnight, creating accumulating snow.

Looks like our southern Vermont friends could even see snow days tomorrow.

It's a long, long shot, but there could be enough snow on the ground and in the streets to cause delays. There will be plenty of cold air in place for roads to get covered as most of us will see temps in the high teens Monday morning.

If the timing is just right and we get a particularly intense short period of snow, delays are possible. Higher elevation districts will once again have a better chance for the delay. They might see a repeat performance of Thursday up there in GAFEM country (that's Gabriel Abbott, Florida, and Emma Miller), and Hoosac Valley, Mount Greylock and Central Berkshire are also in the mix for delays.

Again, we want to stress that delays are not likely, nor will they be widespread. This is more of a wishful thinking event. But it would be a nice way to ease into the work week.

Whether some of us get a delay or not, Monday will be downright wintery. Highs in the 20s, windy, and occasional snow showers. Dress appropriately if you have practice outside after school.

Delays for Thursday, May 24

Rain, sleet, and wind at the Greylock Snow Day home office this morning. Off and on rain is expected throughout the day and then picking back up again later tonight. 

We do have a few delays to report (last update: 6:12 AM):

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Emma Miller

Florida

Gabriel Abbott

Winter Weather Advisory -- Will Anyone Get a Delay?

The cloud cover you saw this afternoon means rain is heading our way shortly around or after midnight. This rain, coupled with temps in the 30s, could lead to some snow and freezing rain in higher elevations.

It looks like the cut off for snow/freezing rain is at 1000 feet. If there are any delays at all--and, mind you, it's not a high probability occurrence--this means schools in the eastern part of Berkshire County have the better chance: Farmington River, Central Berkshire, Hoosac Valley, maybe even Mount Greylock.

NWS Albany

The thing we're interested in seeing play out is how cool it gets toward daybreak. This morning, temps were about 6° cooler than predicted at the GSD Home Office. If low temp predictions are just a few degrees off and you take into account that the rain will drag some of the colder air aloft downward and cool the surface, then enough icing is possible at the right time to push back the start to school.

Definitely, no one should count on a delay tomorrow, as current temps are in the high 40s (6 PM Wednesday). But there's a small chance that some of you out there will get to sleep in for a few extra hours. We'll post a list of those schools should there be any.

Winter Weather Advisory -- Delays Possible For Thursday (March 24)

NWS-Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Berkshire County for Wednesday night and the Thursday commute. This is your reminder that we're not quite out of the woods yet.

The combination of temps around freezing and an incoming rain storm could create icy conditions for the drive to school on Thursday morning. It looks like the east-facing slopes are the areas most likely to pick up more mixed precipitation, but all areas could see .10" of ice.

NWS Albany for Thursday morning.

Ice is really unpredictable. There's definitely a chance that superintendents will take the safe route and allow a few more hours for the buses to roll on Thursday morning. This will definitely be a Thursday morning decision once town road crews and bus companies assess the road. We think there will be at least a few districts that go with the delay, especially in eastern hill towns of the Berkshires.

Whether we get ice or all rain, Thursday is shaping up to be a cold (highs in the mid 40s) and wet day. The rain will lighter in the afternoon but then pick again overnight. Outdoor sports in the afternoon on Thursday will not be a lot of fun.

Icing will not be an issue Friday morning as the temps will be too warm.

Winter Storm Warning for Berkshire County (Saturday, March 12)

It's no Storm of the Century, but it looks like we have a sizable snow storm on our hands for a Saturday afternoon in mid-March.

The good news for snow lovers is that the entire county now has a Winter Storm Warning. Earlier today, NWS Albany split the middle with a Warning for Northern Berkshire and a Winter Weather Advisory for South County, but they wisely re-assessed their data and went with the Warning for the entire county. 

Still, those of you in Southern Berkshire County will get fewer inches of snow, but not that many. We expect to see 5-6 inches south of I-90 and 7-8 inches from Pittsfield and points north. It's also highly likely that we'll see double digit totals in the hill towns up by the Vermont border.

Here are the pertinent details:

*Rain starts before sunrise then changes over to snow between 8 and 10 AM.

*Snow comes down heavy at times. It will be wet and heavy snow early, but then as the temps drop, the snow will get lighter and fluffier and could really start to pile up in the afternoon.

*Snow should end between 6 and 8 PM.

*The wind will become fierce in the afternoon as well, with gusts approaching 40 MPH, which could create difficult white-out conditions.

And now some maps:

The blend of models map.

NWS Albany.

WNYT Channel 13 Albany.

Winter Storm Watch for Saturday

Old Man Winter has found a second wind, and a second measurable storm for Saturday suggests the old goat's still got it.

NWS Albany has posted a Winter Storm Watch starting late Friday and ending late Saturday night. The Watch calls for the potential for 5 to 9 inches of snow for Western Mass. The heaviest snow will fall in the early afternoon on Saturday, and the potential for rates of 1-2 inches of snow per hour is the reason that the snow could pile up in a hurry.

NWS Albany is predicting a moderate snow storm.

Stop us if you've heard this before, but the uncertainty with this storm is the track. The Euro model pushes the track to the east, which means more cold air for us and more snow. The American model tracks the storm more to the west, and that means warmer air and a shorter interval for when we see all snow.

Right now our best guess for the Berkshires is 2-4 inches south of I-90 and 4-6 northward. Higher elevation towns up by the Vermont border could top out at 10 inches.

The Euro seems to be the preferred model for this storm as it's consistent with most meteorologists' predictions for Saturday.

The big thing we'll be watching is the track of the storm and the next announcement from NWS Albany. If we get the upgrade to the Winter Storm Warning, then get out the high boots. If the Watch becomes a Winter Weather Advisory, then we'll only see a few inches and the snow will all be melted by Tuesday.

Sunday could be one of the last days to get some sledding and nordic skiing in as there will be little melting that day with highs below freezing for the entire day. A big warm-up to the 50s is expected for every day next week, so this snow will not be around for long.

Winter's Back!

We have picked up a solid 3" of perfect snowball/snowperson snow (as of 4:30 PM) at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, and the radar would indicate another half inch or so is still to fall.

Temps were slightly lower than expected at the onset, which allowed the snow to stick to roads quicker and create slick driving conditions.

The snow should end tonight by 8 PM at the latest, so that means, alas, that there's no chance for a delay or snow day on Thursday.

We know some of you out there begin to lose interest in more snow this time of year--and we can hardly blame you--but more snow is in the forecast for Saturday. The models are in agreement that it will snow this weekend, but there's significant spread in the forecasts. The American model shows another 3-4" snowfall for the Berkshires; the Euro is coming in hot with a 6-9" projection for our area. 

Loving the Euro forecast for Saturday. It's highly unlikely we'll get this much snow, but you never know with historically less predictable March storms.

Right now it would appear that the bulk of the snow will fall on Saturday in the afternoon and evening. Regardless of what happens around here, ski country to our north is going to get to extend its season if this storm does what it's supposed to do.

We'll have more detailed analysis for the weekend snow starting tomorrow.

Wednesday Snow

It won't be snowing on the way to school tomorrow, but it will be snowing on the way home. 

We are expecting 1-3 inches in Berkshire County on Wednesday, with chances for more snow in South County and in the east-facing slopes. Snow total predictions have been steadily rising over the past few days, so this minor storm does have some over-performance potential. Snow is expected to start between 10 and 12 AM.

NWS Albany.

Because there isn't very much cold air in place, the snow will initially melt on the roadways and sidewalks, but it will begin to accumulate on grassy surfaces. Eventually, probably for the evening commute home from traditional 9-5 offices, the roads will begin to get coated, so it could be slick out there for a few hours (4-8 PM).

It's certainly possible evening activities (i.e. high school basketball games) could be impacted/postponed.

And the snow for the weekend is still very intriguing. There's lots of chatter on weather social media about the possibility of a moderate snow storm once the changeover from rain occurs. More to follow.

Chances for Snow This Week (March 7-13)

It's been a few days since we've last written due to the end of vacation week and all the mild weather we've been experiencing. We definitely do no encourage you to put the shovels away just yet, but temps in the 60s sure felt nice on Sunday.

Winter, though, is still lurking out there somewhere, and we should see the Old Man make an appearance or two over the next few weeks.

First up is a chance for lake effect snow on Tuesday. A few flakes may make it all the way across New York state and coat the ground in the Berkshires, so don't be surprised to see a flurry or two.

Snow potential for Wednesday (European model). The American model keeps the snow well to our south.

On Wednesday, the northern fringe of a storm system to our south could spread snow showers and even an inch or two over southern portions of the county (see above). That snow will likely take place during the day on Wednesday if it happens at all.

On the weekend, we could see rain change to snow on Saturday. We could get a minor coating or we could get several inches (2-4)--it all depends on how deep the cold air gets sucked into the region due to the storm. In terms of the impact on travel, the Saturday storm is the one we're most interested in monitoring.

Saturday into Sunday snowfall potential

And in the "long, long shot" category, we are seeing some models predicting a sizable nor'easter for the 20th. We've been down this road many times this winter--so don't even think about getting excited--but it is nice to know that one big storm is still within the realm of possibility.