No School for Monday?

We have an interesting development to report on that could impact the length of the school day on Monday. Unfortunately, it is not weather-related.

Due to a delay in rapid tests getting to teachers in some parts of Massachusetts, the Massachusetts Teachers Association is calling for the cancellation of classes on Monday to allow more time for Covid testing. Some schools in eastern Mass have already issued delays and cancellations for Monday. Newburyport, Lexington, and Watertown have either cancelled school or shortened the school day.

So, this weekend students and parents should be on the lookout for communication from their schools with any updates about a change to the schedule for Monday. Even though it's not really in our lane, we will post any news about delays and cancellations for our area if those come about.

You're On Vacation--What's The Weather Going To Be?

Happy Holidays, everyone!

Christmas Day was pretty dreary--the second rainy Christmas in a row for the Berkshires--and the hoped-for transition to snow on the back end of the storm--once again--did not materialize.

So far this winter has been a dud. The models have been giving us some hope with some of these storms, but except for the Thanksgiving weekend surprise 5 inches and a couple of inches on December 9th, this winter is stuck in first gear.

So...what's it going to do this week? Will it snow? Will it be cold? Are there any storms on the horizon?

Monday -- Decent day. Chilly by our standards this winter with the high temp unlikely to get above freezing. Possible inch of snow after midnight.

Tuesday -- Warmer. Back up to the low 40s, setting up a rainy Tuesday night with some sleet possibly mixing in for higher elevation towns.

Wednesday -- A rainy start but overall a grey day. Low 40s.

Thursday -- Hey, something new. Some breaks of sun. But temps still up into the low 40s.

Friday -- See Thursday.

Saturday/Sunday -- Now we're talking. Some models are showing a snow storm, maybe even a legitimate one. If it snows, we're looking at 3-5" on Sunday afternoon and night. (The North American model is the only one showing this storm; the Euro prognostication is for merely a dusting. But we'll be monitoring it all week).

Once again we are pinning are snow hopes on a storm that is a week away. Eventually the models have to get one of these storms right.

White Christmas?

For those who had school or work today, congratulations! You made to the start of another vacation. We need to celebrate small victories this year.

Now that snow days and delays are out of the equation for the next week and a half, let's focus on the chance for weekend snow.

Tonight, there's a very light clipper streaming across New York that should impact western Massachusetts later this evening. It's not going to be much, but we could see an inch or so in some spots. So, yes, we should see snow on the ground in most locations in the Berkshires by Friday morning.

We were hoping we'd pick up another inch or so late Friday night, but now the Saturday storm looks like a wet mess. Currently, it looks like we'll start with a wintry mix then change over to rain in the morning and continue through the afternoon. The Grinch-y rain will likely wipe out any snow on the ground. In the evening, then, is when we have some intriguing certainty. 

Some models, the North American in particular, is showing coastal intensification, which could change the rain back to snow. The Adirondacks and parts of Vermont should see snow on the back end of this storm, but the snow line could drop much further south and into the Berkshires. We are definitely not getting our hopes up at the GSD Home Office, but we could see a sneaky 2-3 inches by Sunday midday.

The North American model with an aggressive prediction for back end snow by Sunday afternoon. This map is not to be trusted.

Overall, there are still no major storms out there on the horizon. We'll certainly let you know when we spot one in the meteorological crystal ball. 

Cancellations and Delays for Wed. December 22

We have delays and closings! The first of the season on the first full day of winter 2021-22.

SNOW DAY:

Farmington River RSD

Richmond Consolidated

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Central Berkshire

Emma Miller Memorial

Mount Greylock Regional

Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday (Dec. 22) Morning

The National Weather Service in Albany snuck in Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon for the Berkshires. Unfortunately, it's not about snow. Ice is possible overnight, with some sleet and freezing rain possibly lingering into the morning commute. 

The precipitation will be light--under a quarter of an inch--and it should start shortly after midnight. There could be an initial period of snow but quickly it will change to sleet and then rain, which could lead to some freezing rain. High elevation towns will see the most wintry weather. Valley dwellers will see some ice but most likely, eventually, all rain.

As a result of the potentially slick morning ride to school, we could see a few delays tomorrow morning. Our confidence is low--10%--but one or two delays in mountain towns are possible. Keep half an eye open for delays when you wake up just in case the cold hangs in longer than expected.

Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday (Dec. 18)

There's isn't really much new to report, if you read yesterday's storm update.

The key details are as such:

*Snow moves into the county around 9 AM Saturday. 

*The precipitation starts as all snow then transitions to sleet shortly thereafter, especially in higher locales.

*Snow and sleet persist through the afternoon and early evening. 

*North County should see higher totals (4"); South County will be between 1-2"

 *Snow ends around 6 PM.

While it's not "the big one," it will make travel slow during the day. Road crews should be able to keep up with it, so as long as travelers give themselves extra time, widespread cancellations of any events due to bad weather should not be necessary. But if you're thinking about cancelling due to Omicron, that's another matter. 😟

Courtesy of NWS Albany

 

Winter Weather Returns For Saturday

We're now under 48 hours until our next storm, and this means that meteorologists are more confident with their predictions and anticipations for Saturday.

NWS Albany says that we will likely need a Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday. That should happen midday tomorrow. 

The Euro is our preferred model right now as it is currently showing between 3 and 6 inches for the Berkshires. The North American model bumps the bulk of the snow slightly to the north, which will be great for ski country. If the North American model proves to be more accurate, we'll still see snow for all of the county on Saturday, but more in the 1-4" range.

The Euro.

The North American

Another factor that will determine our snow totals is that sleet and freezing rain could mix in. Frozen precipitation could chop the expected number of inches in half. The staff at GSD actually think this is a likely scenario for many of us as the temps will be right on that freezing line midday.

Yesterday, we thought the peak of the storm would occur in the evening. Today, it looks like we have to shift the peak to the afternoon when the storm moves to our east and drags colder air down from the north to ensure that the precip falls in the form of snow. 

Most people have their Christmas tree already, but if.you were hoping to cut your own on Saturday, you'll have a snowy tree, but what great photos for Grandma! If you'd prefer not to deal with a snowy tree, the veteran move is to find a farm that's open on Friday and grab one then. Just some friendly holiday advice from GSD.

Tomorrow will be nice (40s), and then it will get colder overnight. Expect the snow to start after daybreak on Saturday and should finish up by midnight.

Weekend Snow?

We don't want to jinx it, but we just might see the return of snow this weekend and--longer term--colder temps and a more active storm to close out 2021.

But the next few days will not feel like winter. After a period of rain tonight (Wednesday), we're expected to hit 60 in most locations of Berkshire County on Thursday. Get outside and enjoy because it may be the last time we see 60 degrees until March.

[Before we talk about the upcoming snow, we did some internet sleuthing around--really, we just looked at a few posts from last year--and discovered that we had pretty brutal cold snap from Dec. 16-19 last year with highs in the teens and low 20s in that stretch. But it did warm up again after that, culminating with a 60-degree Christmas day last year. So, it is highly likely, given the overall warming trend happening on the entire planet, that 60-degree days in December are, unfortunately, here for good.]

Friday will still be mild (mid 40s) before the temps start to drop as a storm moves in from the east-southeast. Right now it looks like the track is favorable to drag in slightly colder air than had been expected. This means the precipitation on Saturday--starting in the afternoon--could start as snow, transition to a mix or rain (depending on your elevation), and then transition back to snow after midnight on Saturday. Both the Euro and North American models are showing 4-5 inches of snow for much of the Berkshires by midday on Sunday.

Euro model prediction (as of noon Sunday)

There is not, however, a lot of meteorological certainty about the track of the storm. If it jogs to the north at all, we'll see more rain. But if it does what the models think it's going to do, we could have tricky driving conditions for Saturday night's holiday parties and a shovel-able/plowable amount to deal with Sunday morning.

Even though it's a weekend snowfall, let's hope it happens if at the very least to enhance the holiday atmosphere.

As for future storms, there are some bigger changes afoot to sweep away the warm air we've been experiencing and to allow cold air to get a good foothold. Some of the longer term guidance is showing the possible ingredients for a conveyer belt of disturbances to impact us during the vacation week between Christmas and New Year's. 

We'll believe it when we see it, but more consistent wintry conditions should be upon us soon. 

Fizzle-di-do

The moderate snow event we were hoping for has slipped out to sea. We should all see snow in the Berkshires on Wednesday, but we'll be lucky if anyone gets over 1" of the good white stuff.

The timing is such that it could result in slippery commutes. Some models are showing a brief period of snow at daybreak and then more later in the afternoon. Others show snow arriving around mid-morning. Because there is so little moisture associated with this storm--and we use that term very loosely--driving conditions should be fine in the AM and for the ride home from school in the afternoon. It would be downright shocking if schools cancelled afternoon activities tomorrow due to the snow.

NWS Albany

Our next best chance for snow might be a few weeks out. Temps are expected to rise into the 40s and 50s next week.

All Eyes on Wednesday

This just in from the bizarro weather world of 2021: parts of Hawaii have been issued a blizzard warning with over a foot of snow expected in addition to near 100 mph winds.

Over here in the Berkshires, we might just see some measurable snow in the middle of the upcoming week.

But first, a few flakes may fly on Saturday night. A clipper system will track well to our north, but residual precipitation could pop-up in the aftermath. Some higher elevations could pick up an inch, and the rest of us valley dwellers will see a dusting or, at the most, half an inch.

The big Monday storm we had been hoping for will be a rain and wind storm, with emphasis on the wind. On Monday we'll see gusts potentially approaching 50 mph. That's something worth keeping an eye on.

About a week and a half ago we did mention a long-range model projection for a bigger storm the week of December 6. Well, that model may have actually gotten one right as the Euro and North American computers are both in agreement about a moderate snow event for Wednesday. Three to five inches are likely. Of course a lot can change in the next few days, but the conditions seem ripe for a decent snowfall. The timing, however, does not look great for snow days, but we're going to monitor it 'round the clock for any changes.

Except for the chance for snow on Saturday night, the weekend should be dry and seasonably cool (mid and high 30s). Conditions will be prime for tree procuring and outdoor decoration hanging. Enjoy.

Snow on Hold

A few days ago we outlined the possibility for several snow storms in the coming days. While that hasn't entirely worked out for, the encouraging news is that the storm pattern is still very active, and we'll have at least one more crack at a snow day or delay in the next 7-10 days.

We may see a short period of wet snow tonight, but it will change over to rain and drizzle tomorrow.

The Sunday/Monday storm that we were hoping would "go coastal" is going to track very far inland. Being on the east side of the storm means warm air will stream in from the south, turning any initial snow to rain. Alas, Monday is looking like a dreary, soggy day.

Snow, though, will come back into the picture Wednesday into Thursday of next week. Another clipper system will move in from the west. Only 1-3 inches of snow is expected, but the commute could be messy enough to warrant delays on Thursday.

In case you were wondering, this fall/winter has produced a historically low amount of snow. Only 10% of the US has snow cover right now, which is half of what we usually see by December 1. A good snow pack helps keep temps down, which obviously helps to create more snow.

Not much snow out there anywhere.

Flake followers need to keep the faith. At some point--on a school day--we'll get enough cold air in place with enough liquid precipitation to give us a day off.