Snowcast: Week of November 29

With light flurries falling at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown this afternoon, it's time for this week's snowcast.

And we do have some snow to forecast.

First up is a minor disturbance for Thursday into Friday. It's a clipper system, which means it won't be a big snow maker and there's some doubt it will even fall as snow. But we could see another inch of slush in the valleys and a few inches in the higher elevations. Given the possibility of rain and the low amount of moisture, we don't think the school day will be shortened on Friday.

Next up is a potentially bigger event for Monday. The models are showing a more substantial storm in the south that could move up the coast, intensifying along the way. There's an even-money chance that the storm goes out sea or goes further inland, but some of the model runs want to bring it up the coast. This would yield a nor'easter, and we know what that means for our neck of the woods. 

The is the Euro model showing a big storm for Monday. We're not predicting this will happen, but if everything goes perfectly, this is what it will look like. 

Whether we get snow or not, these two potential snow storms show that we're in an active pattern. It certainly feels as if we'll get at least one snow day before December holiday break, and let's all hope it's next Monday.

Outlook For Delays on Monday

Generally speaking, yesterday's storm was an over-performer and got the winter of 2021-22 off on the right foot.

We ended up with 5-8 inches in the county with a few higher elevation towns into double digits. Had this storm fallen on a school night, we would have seen delays instead of full snow days as the bulk of the snow wrapped up shortly after midnight.

The good news is that more snow is on the way. The bad news is that there isn't much energy associated with the next storm. The last few runs of the models suggest we'll only get half an inch to 2 inches of snow. The timing is good--it will start around midnight Sunday--but the snow will probably stop falling by daybreak.

Just for fun, we will indicate a small chance for a delay or two on Monday on the ol' Confidence Meter, but it's more likely that all students will have a full day of school on our return from Thanksgiving break.

More or less a dud.

As for our next big weather maker, not much is in the offing this week coming up, but we are keeping an eye on a moderate rain/snow event for Monday, December 6.

The 1st Winter Weather Advisory of the Season

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire county. Pittsfield and towns north should see an inch or two of snow later today, with higher elevation towns picking up 3-6" of snow. And anyone who lives above 1500' feet could easily see double digit snow totals by Saturday morning.

The Euro's snow prediction for today and tonight

Most of us in the county experienced some rain early this morning (5-6 AM), and there will be a pause in the action before the rain begins again and starts to transition to wet snow as the temps slowly start to decrease throughout the day. It does not take a trained meteorologist to tell you that as the temps go down, the relative dryness of the snow starts to go up. Folks in the valleys will mostly see a heavy slushy snow, while those in the hill towns will gradually transition to higher quality snow.

Channel 6 in Albany

In terms of travel today, the worst time would be between noon and 9 PM, unless of course you are driving south or east. Those areas should stay all rain, or if does snow there, it will not accumulate on most roads because the ground is still above freezing.

As for Sunday night's storm, the models are less optimistic about the storm redeveloping off the coast close enough for moderate snow. The Berkshires should still get some snow, but it will only be nuisance level snow of 1-2". Things are still fluid, as they say, and the projected timing is such that the morning commute could still be impacted.

Today could be tricky; be prepared for slow travel later today.

Giving Thanks: A Cornucopia of Snow Opportunities

Happy Thanksgiving, friendly Flake Followers!

It might be cold outside, but the snow maps are really starting to heat up. But because there's so much to do today with food prep, family outdoor time, parades, and designated napping time, we're going to cut right to the chase regarding the several snow opportunities we're eyeballing for the next few weeks.

The Appetizer: We'll see some rain later this evening (Thursday), but the rain will shift over to snow in the higher elevations. Northern Berkshire hill towns would be the most likely recipients of accumulating snow (but only an inch or two). On Friday, the wind will pick up and snow showers will abound. Given the sporadic nature of snow showers, we could see some light accumulation by Saturday morning. Road conditions, though, should be fine.

Matt Noyes of Channel 10 Boston

The Main Course: There's an outside chance for moderate snow Sunday night into Monday, and our crack staff at the Home Office is keeping a keen eye on this storm. A storm will slide in from the midwest and potentially intensify off the coast of Maine. Some of the models take the storm out to sea, but others keep it closer to the mainland. If you're rooting for a snow day or delay on Monday--both are certainly within the realm of possibility--start rooting hard for close-to-Maine coastal development.

Henry Margusity is bullish on moderate snow for the Berkshires by Monday.

The Dessert: Long-range modeling can be ridiculously inaccurate, but some models are showing a blockbuster event in two weeks. It probably won't happen, but it certainly is fun to think about. Snow days and delays appear to be right around the corner.

Have a great holiday, everyone, and you can expect regular updates about the Sunday night/Monday storm in this space over the weekend.

It's No White Thanksgiving

The "potential big storm" that had recently been hyped up by various weather and news outlets will arrive Sunday night and last throughout the day on Monday. But, most unfortunately, it will be a rain event.

Moderate and heavy rain is possible on Monday. Once the storm exits Monday night, we could see periods of snow showers on Tuesday with some minor accumulation in the higher elevations. But this storm is a nothing burger, and we'll have to wait until December for a measurable snow event for the entire county.

Once the rain clears out, we'll have chilly day Tuesday--mid 30s--and then we'll low 40s and dry conditions for the rest of the week. Turkey trots, backyard football, and pick-up soccer will all be on for Thursday.

Looking to the long-range forecast for any hints of potential snow storms, we simply do not see anything. The temps should keep us in the ballpark for snow should any storms develop, but the overall pattern is looking calm for a few weeks.

On a brighter note, most of the Berkshires got a squall this afternoon (Friday) to at least remind us of what snow looks and feels like. Expect similar squalls on Tuesday for our area.

Possible Turkey Week Storm

You're bound to hear it sooner or later, so we might as well get out in front of it. The European model is predicting a whopper of a northeast storm perilously close to the big holiday travel day before Thanksgiving.

In no way is this storm a certainty for significant snowfall for the Berkshires. The model is showing heavy snow for the middle of Pennsylvania, central New York and northern New England by the end of the day on Tuesday. The Berkshires would only see a few inches. But that's today's run of the models and a lot will likely change by next week. 

Today's Euro model prediction for snow next week.

This storm could also just as easily go out to sea or be an all rain event.

Still, it bears watching and, snow or rain, it could impact millions of people's travel plans on Tuesday and Wednesday.

We'll let you know should any signs suggest that we're going to get measurable snow next week.

We're Back: Winter Forecast Preview 2021-22!

Sing along everybody, because it's the most wonderful time of the year! Snow is just around the corner and it's long-range winter forecasting time!

That means GSD is back and readier than ever to translate the mumbo jumbo, cut through the hype, and--hopefully--deliver useful weather advice so you can plan your school and work weeks. Delays, snow days, remote days--you're thirsty for them and we're on it. For the winter of 2021-22, we pledge to never, ever lead you astray.

Because a few flakes are showing up on the smartphone weather apps the week of November 15, curious bystanders on the streets have been pestering GSD Staff members with queries about what the winter of 2021-22 will present us denizens of the Berkshires. We have stared into the meteorological crystal ball, and we have some ideas:

Experts are saying that New England will see slightly higher temps this winter and average precipitation amounts due to La Nina conditions. Just to remind you, a typical Berkshires winter yields about 70 inches of snow, and last season we were right around that mark throughout the region.

If La Nina is here to stay, then the upper midwest typically sees more precipitation and the southeast sees higher temps. But the big X-factor is climate change and the extremes we have been seeing. Despite the forecast for slightly higher temps and average snowfall, we still could very likely see several major storms this season that could skew our snow totals in a positive direction.

A few things you can count on. 1) We'll have a period of sub-zero temps that will last 3-5 days, typically in January. 2) At some point we'll see a stormy pattern that brings us three storms in a three-week period, most likely in the late January or February period. Those storms could be snow-to-slush-to-rain or they could be direct hits. 3) History tells us we'll get a big storm in December or March. We haven't had a March blockbuster in a while, so maybe 2022 is our year. 

Overall, though, our best guess is that we'll get 60 to 70 inches of snow this winter.

Currently, we're looking at a chance for high elevation snow Friday night into Saturday and then wet snow on Monday. There's little to no chance the snow will accumulate enough to impact the length of the school day on Monday, but of course we'll keep an eye on it. We just had a stretch of three fall nor'easters (one hit, one half hit, and the other went out to sea) and then a two-week quiet period. It may take another week or two until we get back into a stormier pattern.

We're excited to be back in the GSD Office. The supercomputers are humming and ready to make snow predictions. As always, we'll post updates as well on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook.  We'll have an update about the Monday snow situation over the weekend.