Where Is The Snow?

After a snow flirtation earlier in October, this fall has been mostly mild and not terribly wet. While that's been great for the pandemic--more time for outside activities!--it's been less great for the plowers and the Berkshire ski industry.

The pandemic cancelled the 2020 World Cup alpine skiing event that would have taken place at Killington in Vermont this very weekend, but even without Covid-19, it's unclear if the warm conditions would have allowed the event to take place at all.

This is all to say that it's been a very warm fall. (Many cities in New England are reporting a top 10 warmest November.) But there are some signs that are indicating that big changes are in store for mid-December.

Most National Weather Service outlets are forecasting a warm December for the entire country. While a warm December would not rule out snowstorms for our region, it's certainly possible that we could have a virtually snow-less December.

But some experts we follow are eyeing a turbulent and potentially snowy mid-December period. We do expect to see temps turn much colder--highs in the mid-30s--for the second week of December after a weekend of rain (5-6th). We might catch some snow on the tail end of the departing storm next weekend, but it likely will not be more than an inch.

The Accuweather long-range forecast. (Yes, it's a bit thirsty on our part, but desperate times call for desperate measures.)

If we can get a good burst of cold air that blankets the Northeast, then the meeting of the warm air in the central part of the country with that cold air in the Northeast could lead to an active period with several storms possible.

Even though a snowless December would be the absolute perfect ending to the worst year of the 21st century, we think we will get that cold air and at least one medium-sized snow storm in December. Whether or not districts call snow days or a remote day is a conversation we'll need to have--hopefully--in a few weeks' time.

Light Snow Monday & Monday Night Then Warm Air Returns

The first snow of the season was pretty much as predicted. The US model was closer with its accuracy, as we picked up 1.5" at the GSD Home Office before it melted. Higher elevations in the Berkshires saw close to 6" in some locations.

We have another round of snow showers/snow headed our way for Monday. Snow is less likely to accumulate throughout the county, but most of us will see a period of snow showers throughout the day with an inch or less of accumulation.

NWS Albany isn't giving us much to work with.

The big difference tomorrow (compared to Friday) will be the wind. We could see gusts close to 50 mph in the afternoon. Coupled with temps in the mid-30s, the gusty winds will bring wind chill values into the low 20s. For anyone exercising or training outside tomorrow afternoon, it will be blustery and cold. Cover up.

As the storm pulls away from our region, the lake effect snow machine will crank up in Western New York. Some of those flakes could make it all the way to Western Mass in the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday. Black ice could be a problem on Election Day. If you haven't dropped off your ballot yet, the weather after 9 AM should not impede your travel to the polling station.

After Tuesday, though, things start to heat up...temperature-wise. We'll get into the 50s on that day and then meteorologists are expecting about a week of temps in the mid-60s. The warmest day looks to be Monday, with some towns approaching the 70-degree mark. Enjoy it because it might be the last we see of the 60s for several months.