MCLA Cancels Classes for Monday

At first glance, the GSD Staff thought this was an odd one, but the more we thought about it, it does make sense.

MCLA--yes, MCLA--is the first school to cancel classes for Monday.

It's a little strange given that there's only one or two more weeks left in the fall semester for most colleges and class time is very precious at this late stage in the game. And travel on Monday will be no picnic either, which means many students will miss classes on Tuesday. But with all the disruption to people's travel plans on Sunday and the really terrible forecast for Monday, it does appear to be a rational decision by the college to keep students off the roads.

So, MCLA has no classes, which suggests that many high school and elementary school students will have no school on Monday as well.

We'll do an official delay and cancellation list--hopefully--starting Sunday night.

[Update 9:15 PM: An edict has clearly come from on high as Westfield State and Mount Holyoke have also cancelled classes for Monday.]

Storm Eve, Evening Update

NWS Albany folks have lowered our snow totals from 17" earlier in the day to a mere foot, but most forecasters are still calling for 12-18" for the Berkshires, with the snow starting around noon on Sunday and lasting all the way through the early hours of Tuesday.

Image courtesy of The Weather Channel

The heaviest snow belt has shifted west for the moment, where areas west of Albany are expecting 20 inches. This heavy snow band of 18-24" will be very hard to predict, and it's certainly possible it will switch back to the Berkshires once the storm commences.

Nothing we're seeing right now has changed our view about school on Monday. It's highly unlikely any Superintendent will want to risk rolling out the buses Monday morning, especially with the forecast for continuing snow and the blowing and drifting of snow that will be taking place all day Monday.

Channel 22 out of Springfield chimes in.

So no new news is good news. You probably want to get your errands completed in the morning tomorrow as travel will be difficult after 3 or 4 PM tomorrow.

An absolutely sure-fire prediction from the GSD Staff is that you'll be reading more posts about this storm tomorrow.

Winter Storm Warning: Over a Foot of Snow Predicted (Dec. 1-2)

Well, it's official. NWS Albany could wait no longer and at a little before 4 AM, they upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a full-blown Winter Storm Warning.

Image courtesy of WNYT Channel 13 Albany.

A few things changed, all to the better. First, the storm window is now from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday. This a big development. For one, it helps anyone traveling back home or back to college. And two, it means that a Tuesday delay or snow day is now in play. (Are we getting greedy with this storm? Perhaps.) The second change was an upgrade of the amount of snow--we're now in the 12 to 24 inch range. And the third change was the mention of wind--gusts to 35 mph--which will create blizzard-like conditions on Monday.

If you've done any digging yourself on this storm, you'll hear that it isn't one big storm but two moderate storms. The first part will impact us Sunday and Sunday night with 4-8 inches of snow. And then phase two--the coastal low--kicks in Monday morning and that part of the storm will bring an additional 6-12 inches of snow. Add it all together and we probably will see a foot of snow in most places, with the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires much closer to 18 inches.

That's a lot of school-cancelling snow. (NWS Albany)

Part one of the storm alone would have created a good chance for snow days on Monday, but now with the forecast threat of an all-day snow on Monday, we simply don't see too many Superintendents deciding to risk it. Things can certainly change--it's the weather after all--but this storm is looking like a big one. Get out the tall snow boots, and that homework you were putting off until Sunday can probably wait until Monday.

Winter Storm Watch for Berkshire County (Dec. 1-2)

If you desire a snow day on Monday, then we've just received another good sign: the announcement of a Winter Storm Watch for all of Berkshire County.

Boy, that certainly escalated quickly. (Thanks to NWS Albany for the image.)

As is said these days, here are the deets:

*The watch starts at 7 AM Sunday--much earlier than we thought it would--and ends at 7 PM Monday. This usually means the snow will start around 10 AM and last well into the afternoon on Monday.

*9+ inches of snow expected. That's nothing to sneeze at.

*To quote the National Weather Service, "travel could be very difficult to impossible."

There's still enough iffy-ness with this storm that we could see these snow totals downgraded before the end of the day tomorrow, but the GSD Staff has a strong suspicion that we'll see the Watch upgraded to a Warning by noon tomorrow.

We'll provide the latest on the exact timing and track and snow total estimate during the day tomorrow.

First Maps for Sunday/Monday Storm

We're just over 48 hours away from the first plowable snow event of the season, and the snow maps are starting to populate social media and weather websites.

The GFS (US model) thinks this will be a big one.

The Euro model clearly seems to be the preferred model, and it's forecasting a rock solid 6-8 inches so far. The US model has really high snow totals--over a foot--that we think are overblown. Take your pick. But this could all change of the next few days--a slowdown Sunday night and a possible intrusion of warm air could both keep totals well under 6 inches.

NWS-Albany

Right now we are fairly encouraged by what we're seeing. If the storm does what experts think it will, then we'll see snow Sunday afternoon and it will continue to snow through Monday afternoon. As long as the snow stays snow and is steadily falling around 5 AM, then most schools in Berkshire County will be off on Monday.

Still On Track for a Sunday Night Storm

Happy Thanksgiving, flake followers! We hope everyone is fighting off the tryptophan and can fully process the notion that our first snow day of the season might just happen on Monday.

All of our sources of intel are still on board for a plowable snow on Monday. We'll see about the exact timing of the storm--it could last for more than 24 hours with some breaks from the snow in between--but the morning commute on Monday does look messy.

You can always count on Accuweather for a very favorable snow map.

There are still too many variables at this stage in the development of the storm to figure out how much snow we'll get by when, but the liquid precipitation totals look good, as do the temps for Sunday into Monday.

Eventually, we'll have maps to post, but right now our advice is to prepare to clean off your car and driveway on Monday morning and perhaps again Monday night when the snow finally stops.

More detailed analysis to follow. Pie is about to be served at the GSD Home Office.

Storm Buzz Continues

We're always a little skeptical when we hear chatter about a big storm a week in advance of it, but the ravens continue to deliver encouraging news to GSD Headquarters.

Here's what the NOAA Albany folks are saying:

Still too early to give total snow accumulations for the Sunday-
Monday event but the Weather Prediction Center has increased
probabilities for this being a "plowable" snowfall event with > 50%
probabilities painted over more of eastern NY/western New England
than previous forecasts.

At this still early stage in the developments, that's about as good as gets. We expect to know much more in the next 48 hours as the forecasting models start to come into agreement.

The big issue will be the track of the storm. The European model has the storm gaining strength as it moves into southern New England; the US model has it tracking farther south. If you want a big snow event, root for the European model to win this early snow season battle.

This storm is far from a done deal. We urge you not to buy into the hype just yet. Much more to follow from us in the coming days.

Late Weekend Snowstorm Possibility

We're in a stormy period for the next week or so, and after some rain and a blustery Thanksgiving Day, we will turn our attention to a possible storm Sunday night into Monday.

We're way, way out in front on this one, but the folks over at NOAA in Albany are already talking about a 30 to 50 percent chance of a plowable snow for our region, with a higher chance in Southern Vermont and the ADKs.

This the 6-7 day forecast for liquid precipitation. We're in the .5 inch range according to this map, which would translate to 6 inches of snow.

So much can change--and likely will change--over the next few days that there's no sense getting hyped up about the storm today, but we wanted to put it in your radar, as the saying goes.

A bonus day off after the long weekend would be seen as a nice early holiday present for the youngsters.

Wintry Mix for Sunday

Just a heads up that we could be seeing a messy day on Sunday with rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow all possible from late Saturday night and on through the day on Sunday. It sounds like a great day to be inside and binge that new favorite show or hunker down for some TV sports.

If this storm were to occur in January, we'd be talking about a class coastal storm, replete with cyclogenesis. But because there isn't much cold air in place, it's going to be mainly a rain and wet snow event.

The most we'll see is 3-4 inches in the higher elevations, but realistically we'll see a coating or up to an inch in most locations in the Berkshires. Travel could be slippery Sunday morning and then later in the day as the rain changes to a wet snow. There is zero threat this storm will carry into Monday morning and affect the morning commute.

Image courtesy of NWS-Albany

As for our next chance for measurable snow, we're not seeing anything heading our way in the next two weeks. We will have a strong rain and wind storm come through on Wednesday night and into Thanksgiving. Conditions will be very blustery on Turkey Day as the storm pulls off the coast and departs.

Take it slow tomorrow if the snow starts to pile up, and enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Ice Alert: Winter Weather Advisory for the Monday AM Commute

We almost hit single digits last night at the GSD Home Office, with the temp bottoming out at 10 degrees Fahrenheit. The average low temp for mid-November for the Berkshires is right around 30 degrees, so you are not imagining how unseasonably cold it is.

We have a minor weather maker approaching from the west that could impact the morning commute. On a scale of 1 being mildly interested and 5 being giddy with excitement, this storm is rating about 0.8, but, still, we owe it to you, dear readers, to keep you informed about the potential for weather events impacting the length of the school day.

NWS-Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires because of the chance for ice accumulation and sleet. The models are predicting about a tenth of an inch of ice, which isn't very much but could create driving hazards in the morning. The Advisory period is from 1 AM Sunday night through noon on Monday. We doubt schools will be delayed because of the ice, but there is a small chance some towns will not be able to treat the roads effectively enough to make travel safe for buses. Our confidence rating will be very low on this one.

Not a lot to work with here. Image courtesy of NWS-Albany

As for the week ahead, we could see snow showers Tuesday morning--not enough to merit delays--and a return to more normal temperatures for this time of year--daily highs around 40 and daily lows in the upper 20s all week. Except for the chance for ice tomorrow, it should be an uneventful weather week.

Wet Snow Tuesday But No Real Accumulation

As you may have guessed from the lack of updates from us on this early season storm, it will be tracking to our our north, and the most we will see is an inch or so on the grounds during the morning hours on Tuesday. The morning commute should be okay. So, we'll have to wait a few more weeks (or longer) for our first school-shortening or school-closing event of the season.

Now you need to brace yourselves for brutal cold for Wednesday. We'll struggle to get to the mid-20s on Wednesday, and Thursday morning you can expect to wake up to single-digit temps.

From our friends at WNYT-Channel 13 Albany, and this map may be on the high side for the Berkshires.

As for winter weather, we don't see any in the 10-day forecast. Temps will return more to normal next week with high 40s the norm for the week of the 18th.

Don't be too disappointed. We'll see plenty of snow events this season in due time.

Snowier Forecast for Tuesday

Just a quick heads up that the storm that we thought was somewhat fizzling for Tuesday is now gaining some strength. It still (probably) won't be a blockbuster, but we could see almost half a foot in the northernmost points in the Berkshires.

Saturday night's snow map from NWS-Albany.

Delays are obviously still possible for Tuesday. There are some signs that the storm could be hastening itself along and might end early enough to allow road crews to clear off any snowy roads, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

We're definitely dialed in on this storm and will be tracking it round the clock for the next 48 hours.

And, also, don't be surprised to see the first Winter Weather Advisory of the season for North County on Monday night.

Light Snow Possibility for Tuesday

If we were one of those shameless weather media outlets that tries to drive up web traffic, we would tell you to brace for the worst, get the snow tires on, and find those high snow boots because the first big snow storm of the season is about to unleash its fury on the Berkshires.

But we're not like them.

We do have a storm on the horizon for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Initially, the models were forecasting a classic I-95 coastal storm (read: 6-10 inches for us). Unfortunately, the latest models have the center of the storm pushing inland and northward, which means higher temps and less snow for Western Mass.

There is a puncher's chance that there will be enough messiness on the roads on Tuesday in the northern half of the Berkshires to necessitate our first delays of the season. Based on the models we're seeing, Adams-Cheshire, Florida and Clarksburg would be the more likely candidates for delays on Tuesday, but delays there are by no means a lock.

The best feature of this storm is the timing. Snow should be coming down during the morning commute, especially north of Pittsfield.

Close but no cigar, for now.

If you're really desperate for that first delay or snow day, then you need to use all your mental energy to will the track of the storm southward. If the storm center does shift 100 miles toward the coast, then we could be in for a more moderate snowfall.

After Tuesday's storm, brace for very cold temps for November. We could see single digits on Wednesday night!

Mountain Snow Tonight; Cold and Snow Next Week

Most Berkshirites will need to wait until next week to see the first sustained snow of the season, as tonight's storm will mostly be rain except in the highest elevations of the County.

Today's storm will produce afternoon and evening rain for most locations. If you live in elevations 1500 feet or above, expect snow-covered ground by tomorrow morning. Those below 1500 feet will see some wet flakes mixing in with the rain but no accumulation.

The bigger news out of Weatherland is the huge mass of cold air about to funnel down from Canada next week. And there is talk of a moderate snowfall on Tuesday. Temps will plummet into the low teens on Tuesday night, which is very unusual for this time of year. And with the arrival of the cold air, the chance for a solid 3-4 inch storm is in the realm of possibility. If the timing works out, we could see delays on Tuesday.

The map of the above is a GFS model map, which isn't a favorite, but it has proven to be reliable in the past. We'll have much more to say over the weekend about the big changes coming to Berkshire County next week.

First Snow of the Season?

It's November, and with a giant mass of cold air about to descend on the continental United States, that means the flakes will be a-flying very soon.

You may have noticed on your favorite weather app--our current app of choice is Dark Sky, BTW--that the snowflake icon has appeared for Thursday night into Friday. Yes, we could see a few inches of snow in the Berkshires that evening. Will it lead to delays on Friday? Highly unlikely. But it's always exhilarating to wake up to that first blanket of the white stuff.

It is supposed to get quite cold--for this time of the year--by the weekend. Temps will start out in the low 50s at the beginning of the week, and then by Saturday highs will be in the low 30s for a few days. On Saturday night we could dip into the teens. That is chilly for early November. Temps will edge back up on Monday to the 40s when we could see more snow in the form of snow showers.

We'll keep an eye on the snow for Thursday night, which could impact high school soccer tournament games that evening.

That's all for now. We'll have more later in the week on this very minor snow event.