"Real" Storm For Monday?

The Alberta Clipper came through mostly as advertised and dropped 3-6 inches on the Berkshires. Northern Berkshire County--again--appeared to be the winners with most schools north of Pittsfield going with the two-hour sleep in.

Earlier in the week we mentioned the possibility of big bomber next Thursday. Well, we may not have to wait that long for our biggest storm of the season. It could happen as early as Sunday night.

Image courtesy of Accuweather.

Before you get too excited about Accuweather's map, understand that most meteorologists haven't quite settled on what track this storm will take. Today alone we've seen forecast maps that gives 2-4 inches, 5-7 inches, and 9-11 inches, so it's far from a certainty about what is going to happen on Monday.

One of the big things going for this storm is that it's a traditional coastal storm, which we haven't seen in a while. The sleet storms and the Alberta Clippers are all fine, but those are storms with low pressure systems that come across land and often lack the punch of a coastal storm. A coastal storm is a real storm with opportunities for fun words like cyclo- and bombogenesis. You don't get that from a weakling Alberta Clipper.

Sunday night's storm will be all about the track. A shift in the track by 50 miles could greatly impact the amount of snow we get. Because there will be a fair amount of cold air in place over New England, there will be a sharp cut off along the line where the northern edge of the storm and the cold air meet. Those north of the line will see just a few inches; those just to the south of the line will see a moderate to heavy snowfall. The models are all showing a diagonal swath of 6-12 inches of snow (southwest to northeast) somewhere across the Northeast. That swath could center on New York City/Boston or it could center on Bangor/Fredericton (N.B.).

By late Saturday we should have a clearer sense of the track and whether or not Berkshire students will be enjoying a three-day weekend or not.

Delays for Thursday, February 28

Light snow is beginning to taper off in Northern Berkshire County, and we have about 5 inches on the ground at the GSD Home Office. We do have several two-hour delays to report this morning:

TWO-HOUR DELAY [updated at 6:24]

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Childcare of the Berkshires (Centers are open; transportation delayed 2 hours)
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
McCann
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pine Cobble
Readsboro
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford

CLOSED

Berkshire Country Day

Snow Starts Wednesday Afternoon; Thursday Morning Commute Could Be Messy

The Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect for the Berkshires. NWS Albany now expects the Berkshires to get 5-6 inches of snow, according to this map.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

This winter, snow estimates have typically been higher than the amount of snow we actually end up getting, so we urge you to go into this storm with some skepticism. We're just a little nervous about the end of the storm as well. It appears that it might hang on long enough to make the morning commute dicey, but as the snow will be fairly light, road crews will be able to get a jump on clearing the roads before the snow actually stops.

What this means is that cautious Superintendents will likely go with a delay, while Superintendents under pressure due to too much lost time to winter weather may ask families to power through and get to school.

We also have noticed that the forecast is for east-facing slopes to get slightly more snow. This means that school districts in the eastern parts of Berkshire County--Adams/Cheshire, Central Berkshire, Farmington River--have a slightly higher chance for delays than the rest.

WNYT Albany Channel 13's take on this storm.

Look for snow to start between 3 and 5 PM today. We'll run a list in the morning if schools begin to call in. Also, because this disturbance is not a major one, we do not expect any districts to call in their delays this evening, but this winter has been a wacky one, and we at GSD have learned never to rule out the unexpected.

Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday Night

The National Weather Service has announced a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow evening that will end at 6 AM on Thursday. We are expecting 3-5 inches (starting around 6 PM), but we have a sneaky feeling that some higher elevations will get half a foot of very fluffy, easily shovel-able snow.

We did notice that NWS Albany thinks the end of the storm will be closer to the morning commute. That is great news for those of you desperate for a delay this week. There's nothing worse than a full week of school after a vacation.

In a semi-weather-related note, Mount Greylock Regional High School will be closed yet again tomorrow due to issues with power to the building. #SchoolinJuly #Sad.

We'll have an update about chances for delays on Thursday during the day tomorrow.

GSD approves this image. Thanks NWS Albany, for providing it.

Alberta Clipper Will Blanket the Berkshires

As expected, the wind storm was intense enough to have caused delays and cancellations for today. The damage across the region was fairly severe, and over 5000 homes in the county were without power at the storm's peak yesterday. Wind gusts in the 60s and approaching 70 mph were reported throughout the County. That's an unusually severe windstorm, not only at this time of year but any time of year.

We have a much less dangerous storm to deal with on Wednesday night. It's a good old-fashioned and harmless Alberta Clipper that will hustle through our area tomorrow night. Because the air is so cold, snow-to-liquid ratios are expected to be very high with this one, so it will generate 3-5 inches of fluffy white goodness despite the relatively low amount of liquid associated with this storm.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

Given the light density and the relative early end to the snow--3 AM Thursday by our accounts--we probably will only see delays on Thursday. This one should be standard fare for road crews, and this late in the season they are in their groove, so we don't expect widespread delays at this point in the run-up.

We are holding out hope the storm slows down just enough to make the morning commute more complicated and to add to the growing number of delay days this winter, which seems to be approaching historic numbers.

Delays and Closings for Tuesday, Feb. 26

A few schools have called in delays for today due to the wild weather yesterday. Here is the updated list:

[Updated: 7:50 AM]

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Adams-Cheshire
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Mohawk Trail
Pine Cobble

CLOSED:

Berkshire Country Day
Mount Greylock Regional High School (only the HS; not a full district delay)

Wild Winds; Snow for Wednesday/Thursday

[UPDATED Delay list below.]

What a windstorm! Gusty winds all day long have knocked down many branches and trees, and many areas either experienced or are experiencing power outages. Electric company crews have spotted all over Berkshire County getting folks back on the grid. A gust over 60 mph was recorded at the Albany airport, and--get this--the wind speed hit 162 mph on the top of Mount Washington.

Winds will eventually die down tonight. We also may see a stray snow shower or two from the lake effects snows across New York state. It's certainly possible a school or two (in addition to Gabriel Abbott) could delay or cancel tomorrow due to a prolonged power outage.

We have some better news about the midweek snow event. The predicted amount of precipitation is supposed to be a little higher, so we may see 2-5 inches. If we're on the high side of that prediction, we'll definitely see delays on Thursday. It's only an Alberta Clipper, and they typically never have much moisture to work with and usually don't last that long, but as of today it's trending in a better direction.

Lastly, we are hearing rumblings about a big one for later next week (Thursday?). The Euro model is showing a coastal storm with at least a foot of snow for the Berkshires. Keep that on the down-low, though, as we don't want to ramp up the hype machine just yet.

We'll post a report in the morning if any schools call in. Also, you'll need the heavy winter coat tomorrow. The high might hit 20 and the leftover winds will make it seem much colder than that.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Gabriel Abbott Memorial

Delays for Monday, Feb. 25

High winds and light snow this morning has forced at least one local delay. Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union has a two-hour delay as do a few schools in the Springfield area.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Southwest Vermont SU

High Wind Warning for Monday

We might need to take this High Wind Warning a little more seriously, as we could see gusts over 60 mph in the Berkshires especially in the eastern slopes and higher elevations towns.

With some areas of the Berkshires still with ice on the trees, power outages could cause a few schools to call in delays, cancel school or send students home early tomorrow. While we do not think delays or early releases are probable, some schools may need to shorten the school day or cancel because they have no power.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

The peak of the winds should be between midnight and noon tomorrow. Watch for branches on roads, and make sure you're covered up if you go outside as the wind chill factors will be much lower than normal due to the high winds.

Take a peak here tomorrow morning just in case we get a few call-ins.

What To Expect This Week (Feb. 25)

Vacation week is over and now we enter that long grind between the February and April vacations. Last year we had a ridiculously snowy March, so there still is plenty of winter left. Long-range models do suggest a stormy start to the month.

A temperature forecast map for the first part of March. You can't have snow without cold air.

As for this week, expect a very windy Monday and light snow Wednesday night into Thursday and also more light snow Friday into Saturday. Neither of the chances for snow is a certainty, but we do know that there isn't much liquid expected for either disturbance. We can't rule out delays on Thursday, but it will only yield a single-digit number on the Confidence Meter.

Tomorrow, you might see some very strong wind gusts. We have a High Wind Warning in place, and some gusts could near 60 mph. Be safe out there!

Winter Weather Advisory: Early Thursday, Feb. 21

We have a Winter Weather Advisory in place this evening and into early Thursday. The issue isn't the snow--only a few inches--but the sleet that is expected to fall once the temps get above freezing.

The Monday morning commute could be slow.

As all the public schools are off this week, the only announcement we have is for Childcare of the Berkshires. They will open on time but their transportation will be running on a two-hour delay.

Should other independent schools phone in delays, we'll post them here tomorrow morning.

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday, Feb. 18

Most students have vacation this week, but those who have to work should be aware that tomorrow's commute will be slower due to a light snowfall expected to blanket the Berkshires.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our region. The reason it isn't a Winter Storm Watch or Warning is there simply isn't enough moisture to warrant it.

We should see snow start to fall around 10 or 11 PM tonight and it will last into the late morning hours on Monday. Everyone in the County should see 3-4 inches of snow. It will be just cold enough to make this an all snow event.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

As for future storms, we're looking at a snow/mixed precipitation storm for Thursday and then possibly something more substantial on Sunday. The Thursday storm is a less organized version of the one we had last week, and the Sunday storm has the potential to be a more organized and thus more potent storm. But, as always, it's way too early to know for certain.

Allow extra time on the way to work tomorrow morning.

Icing Roads Tonight

Roads tomorrow morning could be icy due to the melting and the bands of snow showers we received this afternoon. Streets around the GSD Home Office are still messy, and with temps dipping all the way to the low 20s, we could see icy patches.

And with icy patches, you might get a delay or two. Just saying.

As for snow, maybe light snow Sunday night into Monday and most meteorologists are keeping their eyes on a larger end of week storm during vacation.

Next week's storm. Image courtesy of Judah Cohen (@judah47)

Wednesday Delays

Roads are slush-covered this morning as a very light freezing drizzle continues to lift out of Berkshire County. Most of the precipitation with this storm has ended, but we should see a few snow showers throughout the day as temps rise to the mid-30s.

Here is the list of schools that have called in delays:

TWO-HOUR DELAY [updated 6:27]:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Bement School
Bennington College (10 AM opening)
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berlin
Brunswick
Childcare of the Berkshires (opening on time; transportation only delayed 2 hours)
Farmington River Regional
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
McCann
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
New Lebanon
North Adams
Readsboro
Richmond
Southern Berkshire
Stamford
Williams College (10:30 opening; Children's Center open at 10:00)

SNOW DAY

Berkshire Waldorf
Southwest Vermont SU

Sleet & Snow Continue -- Delays for Wednesday

The storm is still cranking along and essentially behaving the way it was predicted it would behave. We had the initial dump of moderate and heavy snow this afternoon before the corn snow/sleet kicked in around 6 PM at the GSD Home Office. Currently, we have 5.0 inches of snow in Williamstown.

There is a large dry slot to our southwest, but light precipitation continues to fall throughout the County and should continue to do so almost to daybreak. While accumulation will be light the rest of the night, the wind has kicked up and we should see 1-2 more inches of sleet and snow by the morning commute.

8:30 PM radar. All of this precip is moving northeast. The dry slot will move over us around midnight, but sleet and snow will kick up again between 2 AM and 5 AM.

Because of the terrible road conditions, some schools are starting to call in delays. Given how this storm is hanging around, we think most schools will have at least a delay tomorrow. Some schools in South County might by lucky losers, but most Superintendents will see it fit to give families an extra two hours to dig out and de-ice.

Here's our list so far:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berlin NY
Brunswick NY
Readsboro VT
Stamford VT
Williams College (10:30 opening; Children's Center open at 10:00)

Storm Update: Delay, Snow Days or Nothing for Wednesday?

Forecast models hit the nail on the head with the timing of the start of the snow. With moderate snow coming down throughout Berkshire County (as of 1:00 PM), Superintendents got this one right with their decision to send students home early. And you take back that joke you just made about blind squirrels finding nuts every once in a while. That simply is not nice.

Despite the moderate snow right now, we are not feeling great about snow days for tomorrow. Because this storm is complex with its double-barreled low pressure systems, we're just not sure how the second phase of the storm is going to play out after the sleet starts falling. We are supposed to see a return to snow after the sleet portion, and that snow should be falling during the morning commute tomorrow. The second round of snow will give us an additional 1-2 inches, and throw in the sleet and the high winds we wrote about yesterday, one would think that a delayed start would be prudent and build up more good-will capital with the Supers' constituents.

Still on track for half a foot. Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

Don't get your hopes up about snow days' getting called in this evening. With the heavy snow coming to a close around 7 or 8 PM, we'll all shift into "wait-and-see" mode through the evening and tomorrow morning to see how the back half of the storm behaves.

The official GSD position is delays are likely and full snow days are possible but unlikely. Schools in North County, southern Vermont, and the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires will have slightly better chances for delays and/or snow days.

We'll see if we can find a few snow totals to report later this evening, and we'll keep gathering intel to learn what it might be doing tomorrow morning.

Lastly, if you want a simple to understand video on the polar vortex and how it impacts our winter weather, check out this little gem by meteorologist Judah Cohen.

Early Releases for Tuesday

Expect the snow to start falling between 11 AM and 1 PM today, and it should come down at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour for a stretch before we see a changeover to sleet around 8 PM. After that, we're less certain that the precipitation will continue into the morning hours, so we'll update our Confidence Meter about delays and snow days later today.

EARLY RELEASE for today:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Waldorf
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
Housatonic Academy
Lee
Lenox
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pine Coble
Pittsfield
Richmond
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union
Stamford

Childcare of the Berkshires -- No Transportation

Early Releases and Maps

Things are trending in the right direction for this storm. We have early releases coming in; we had the upgrade from Watch to Warning; the storm is expected to last through the morning commute on Wednesday. The only thing that is giving us pause is the nose of warm air that will force its way in late on Tuesday night and give us sleet and, potentially, end the storm several hours too early for our desires for a snow day on Wednesday.

Here is the list of early releases:

EARLY RELEASE [updated 8:47 PM]:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
Housatonic Academy
Lee
Lenox
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pittsfield
Richmond
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union
Stamford

Childcare of the Berkshires -- No Transportation

And here are host of maps, in order from good to great:

Less encouraging but will probably be the most accurate. Channel 13 Albany WNYT.

Boston is always a little out of touch with the Berkshires. Channel 7 Boston WHDH.

Channel 22 Springfield WWLP.

Channel 6 Albany WRGB.

More inches = more clicks. The Weather Channel.

Early Releases for Tuesday, Feb. 12

**We've been upgraded. The Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to noon on Wednesday. Six to 10 inches of snow plus high winds.** [updated 5:51 PM]

Please see our previous post for particulars about the timing, precipitation types, and amount of snow expected for tomorrow's storm. But the good news is that a few schools nearby have called in for early releases for Tuesday. With the storm forecasted to start before the close of school, we won't be surprised to see this list grow this evening. It's almost assured that all afternoon and evening activities will be cancelled tomorrow.

As early releases are more taxing on families, most releases should be called in tonight, not tomorrow morning.

We'll continue to update this list, and we'll offer up one more assessment and some maps later this evening.

EARLY RELEASE:

Central Berkshire
Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott
Hoosick Falls
Farmington River
Mohawk Trail
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union

Winter Storm Update -- Midday Report

While our friends to the north have been upgraded from the Watch to the Warning, Berkshire County still has only the Watch in place. If we are to get the upgrade, it will happen for Northern Berkshire only.

Most maps we're seeing are showing 3-6" for South County and 6-9" for the northern half. We will also see sleet force its way in at some point--probably closer to midnight--which will suppress our snow totals.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

NWS Albany tells us that the snow will start in Berkshire County at noon tomorrow. That piece of information could lead schools to call for the early release. We're as curious as you are about how Superintendents will react to this forecast. Given the extra-precaution we saw with the freeze days and delays, we will not be at all surprised to see several early releases announced tonight for Tuesday.

As for our snow day chances on Wednesday, the storm is expected to taper off in the morning hours. But a big factor could be the wind. We have a Wind Advisory up for Berkshire County, with wind gusts up to 50 mph expected. If these gusts are prevalent when the Supers wake up on Wednesday, the blowing of snow will create enough of a hazard for road crews and bus drivers to warrant delays (at the least) and full snow days (at best).

The threat of warm air moving into the area after the initial onslaught of snow has us feeling hesitant about across the board delays and snow days for Wednesday. The period of moderate and heavy snow will end relatively early, so it will be up to the sleet and lingering snow bursts to get us to the promised land, which is a very tenuous situation to be in.

We'll have updated info and several maps later this afternoon and/or tonight.

Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday & Wednesday

Snow and sleet are headed our way on Tuesday, and the National Weather Service thinks we'll get at least half a foot so it has announced a Winter Storm Watch starting at 10 AM Tuesday and lasting through noon on Wednesday.

Initially, we did not like the timing on this storm, but the last few runs of the models have slowed it down so it is likely we'll see snow or sleet into the morning commute on Wednesday. Most estimates indicate 6-8 inches for northern Berkshire County and 4-6 in South County. These numbers could easily change significantly in either direction as the track of the storm will determine how much snow we get--and when we changeover to sleet for a time. The changeover is highly likely, and we don't like that.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany

This storm is no slam-dunk nor'easter. It is a complicated storm because there are two low pressure systems involved--a "double-barrel low" as they say in meteorological parlance--and it's not always clear how the first low will impact the second one.

If this storm hits a home run, then we're looking at an early release on Tuesday followed by a full snow day on Wednesday. If it hits a little dribbler to the mound, we might see a few delays in the higher elevation towns but everyone else will see a full day of school.

So let's aim right for the head pin on this one and go with a few releases on Tuesday and everyone on Wednesday morning getting a delay or full snow day. That's the official GSD position at the nonce, but it will change as we get closer to the storm and better understand the impact the sleet will have on this storm.

Check back in tomorrow for more sub-optimal sports metaphors and updated information about our approaching storm.

Big Storm Next Week

After a 10-day semi-break from Winter, it looks like the Old Man will return on Saturday and into next week. After a rainy Friday, we'll see more seasonal temps in the 20s on Saturday, and then things get very interesting for the middle of next week, the week before our annual February vacation.

We pause for a moment to discuss your weather app on your phone. The weather apps these days are wonderful. At GSD we love the Weather Underground app. But you cannot get too excited about the long-range predictions with them. Their algorithms are fine, but they often miss the mark with the long-range forecasts. Please continue to use them but focus on their 48-hour forecasts.

We are seeing many signs that we'll have a plowable storm to contend with in the middle next week. A storm will slip into the Northwest this weekend, and that piece of energy will eventually make its way across the continental US and impact New England Tuesday and Wednesday (and maybe Thursday). Currently, some models show that the storm will slip a little too far to our north and not have a major impact on us, but other models are hinting that the main low pressure system will drop far enough south to give us a strong New England storm.

Thanks to the Cranky Weather Guy (@crankywxguy) for this image.

We're too far out to know for sure what is going to happen, but we are optimistic about some kind of delay or snow day for Wednesday. Yoha!

We will be tracking this storm all weekend and cannot wait to see how it develops--we have a good feeling. Even though a week of vacation looms, few people we know will complain about a midweek snow day as we head into vacation.

Check in over the weekend as we'll post new information as soon as we have good intel about the approaching New England storm.

Delays for Thursday, February 7

We do have a few delays to report this morning due to icing. Here they are:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Central Berkshire
Mohawk Trail
Readsboro

Ice Is Nice--Winter Weather Advisory for Feb. 6/7

Greetings, all you flake followers. Tonight GSD is going to transition you to freezing rain followers, as The National Weather Service in Albany has announced a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires and surrounding locations for a possibly moderate ice storm.

The Advisory is in effect from 5 PM tonight to 10 AM tomorrow, but we doubt we'll see precipitation linger that long into the morning.

While this advisory sounds good on its surface, it is only an advisory and the temperature may simply be too high to produce widespread icing. If we do see icing, it will be in higher elevation areas in the Berkshires.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

Even though the GSD Staff does not have a lot of confidence in this storm, we will still hold out hope for delays tomorrow morning. The Tuesday Pittsfield school system delay was an unexpected one, so anything is possible, especially if your school is above 1000 feet of elevation. The usual high-elevation towns have a significantly higher chance for delays tomorrow.

Predicting ice is much more of a crapshoot than predicting snow. The models are improving in their ability to forecast ice, but the temperature window for ice is so narrow that these ice forecasts often go wrong.

Still, driving could be dicey tonight (especially around midnight) and tomorrow morning. We will of course track those delays when/if they are called in.