Shovels Ready: Snow Sunday Night

As you can tell by the lack of action at this very weather outlet, January has been slow in getting going with measurable snowfall. Sure, we've had plenty of flurries--in fact, it feels like it's been flurrying for weeks--but we are in a storm-less rut.

We could be pulling out of that rut this weekend, as we have shovel-able snow on the way for Sunday, and the long-range forecast is showing two eye-brow raising storm possibilities in the upcoming twelve days.

The forecast for Sunday night's storm keeps getting snowier. We were seeing just an inch or two a few days ago, but now meteorologists and models are indicating a possible 3-5" for the Berkshires. 

A low pressure system will track along the coast on Sunday. Cold air is in place, so the farther north the storm tracks, the more snow we will get. If the low veers north, we could get to Winter Storm Watch potential, but more likely is a Winter Weather Advisory will be announced on Saturday or early Sunday morning.

NWS Albany

The Sunday night event will be a quick one. Snow moves in in the late afternoon (between 4-6 PM), and it should be finished before the morning commute. For those who have to work on Monday (MLK Jr. Day), you may need an extra few minutes for your drive.

After Sunday, we will have a bitterly cold few days. Monday through Thursday will be frigid. The worst days will be Tuesday and Wednesday when high temps will be in the low teens. Slow your roll on any freeze day thoughts as we will get below 0 on Tuesday night but only by a few degrees.

As for snow, we see possible storms for Monday the 27th and/or Wednesday the 29th. For now we'll temper expectations given how far out these storms are, but we're definitely on the case.

Let's hope the storm tracks further north on Sunday. While we're on track to reach our average snow fall total, we need January to yield better results.

 

Winter Weather Advisory Starts the New Year

Happy New Year, snow lovers!

The year is starting off on a positive note with snow in the forecast. NWS Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire County and a Wind Advisory for the entire County. But all in the Berkshires should wake up to snow on the ground on Thursday. 

Some school districts are still on vacation on Thursday, but most schools are back in session. We are expecting delays for some but not all districts. Pittsfield, Central Berkshire, Hoosac Valley, North Adams and the mountain elementary schools all have a better chance for a delay than Lee, Lenox, Berkshire Hills, and Southern Berkshire.

NWS Albany

The Advisory kicks in at 4 PM, which means snow should start falling around 5. Higher elevations will once again be favored to get more snow. The current forecast is for 3-6" in Northern Berkshire and 1-3" in Southern Berkshire. Snow should continue well into the day on Thursday.

This is not a traditional snow storm (i.e. Alberta Clipper or nor'easter). The strong storm that brought heavy rain last night is now swirling around up in Canada. That swirling will create lake effect snow and upslope snow. (Check out the forecast for towns on the eastern edge of Lake Ontario--2-4 feet in some spots!)

These kinds of "residual effects" snow events can be very unpredictable. Squalls can come through and elevate snow totals. We can also get locked in to a prolonged period of upslope snow. On that note, NWS Albany always posts a high end map that shows the potential if the storm over performs. Here it is:

NWS Albany

If the storm does over perform, then obviously snow days are likely for all districts. But putting hope in "if" is a dangerous game.

The GSD Staff has mixed feelings about this storm. The timing looks good in that it should be snowing during the witching hour (i.e. when Superintendents make their decisions), but we are less enthused about the amount of snow. So we will go with a fairly generic 50% chance of delays for schools in the north and 30% chance for schools below Pittsfield. And everybody gets a 15% chance for a snow day.

We'll post later tonight if conditions improve or degrade in any significant way. Enjoy the last day of vacation, and may your prayerful thoughts be snowy ones.

Light Snow for Christmas Eve

Winter weather nerds have particularly enjoyed the last three days. 

Around these parts, the Friday/Saturday snow overdelivered and dropped almost 4 inches of light fluffy snow at GSD Headquarters in Williamstown. We were only expected to get 1-2", so that was fun.

And then Monday morning, we woke up to bitterly cold air: -9℉ at 6 AM. Again, we did not expect to see the temp drop so low this morning. With no wind, no clouds, and snow on the ground, radiational cooling conditions allowed us to wake up to what might end up being the coldest air of the season.

Temps will moderate today and move closer to 20℉ by this afternoon in front of our next chance for snow. Another clipper will be passing through late tonight and into Tuesday morning. For those who have to go to work on Christmas Eve, the morning commute could be slow.

Euro forecast for Christmas Eve snow.

We are only expected to get 1-2" from this clipper, but it will be enough to ensure a white Christmas.

As for the rest of the week, it will be dry and getting gradually warmer. By Saturday we'll see temps in the 40s for daytime highs.

And in terms of the long-range snowstorm outlook, our two favorites models--the Euro and the North American--are not giving us much to work with. Both are showing a warm-up for next week. The Euro shows a chance for light snow on Jan. 2, and the North American is indicating a little light snow for Jan. 6. Things can and do often change, but right now no big storms are in the offing. 

Have a wonderful holiday!