Snowy Wednesday But Schools Will Be Open

We had hoped for snow totals to get juiced for Wednesday in order to bring school cancellations into play, but that does not seem to be the case for this Alberta clipper that will whip through our area tomorrow (Wednesday).

Snow total predictions are in the 1-3 range for Berkshire County. Higher elevation towns in the northeast slopes of the Berkshires will receive the most snow. Valley areas and southern Berkshire will receive just over an inch. Areas directly to our north have Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings (Adirondacks), so we are just on the edge of a significant snow storm.

Boston NWS favors higher snow totals for Northern Berkshire. We shall see.

Because the snow totals are relatively low, road crews should be able to keep up with the snow, and that means busses should not have any trouble making their routes on Wednesday afternoon. As we mentioned over the weekend, a few cautious school leaders might cancel after school activities but even those cancellations will be few and far between.

This is the short-range model called the NAM. It typically runs high so half of this prediction would seem about right.

The snow should end in the late afternoon or early evening and then it's going to get blustery. Winds in the 20-30 mph range are expected on Thursday, and we could see an additional inch of snow as upslope snows kick in from the departing storm. Some valley areas could get as much snow Thursday afternoon and evening as they do on Wednesday.

Image from Ken Mahan, Boston Globe.

Fortunately for us, the unsettled pattern continues. We are eyeing more snow on Sunday and perhaps a bigger storm for the middle of next week. It's all very tenuous right now, but another snow day before the holiday break would be delightful.

Snow Returns on Wednesday, Dec. 10

The week has started with a cold but relatively wind-less day so the real feel on this Monday isn't so bad.

Temps will fall throughout the night and we will flirt with our coldest thermometer reading of the winter when we wake up on Tuesday.

We do have snow in the forecast. While last week's storm was the preferred coastal storm, this week's storm is an Alberta clipper, which typically produces less snow, and that is absolutely the case this week.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

We'll actually see two systems cruise on through. One will pass more to our north and give us a coating or 1/2" in the overnight hours on Tuesday. The second system will travel in a more southerly direction and give us more snow. Right now the models are showing 1-3" for the County with higher elevation locations getting more snow. We may even see the snow change to mixed precipitation and then rain especially in Southern Berkshire County.

Because of the midday timing of the bulk of the snow, we do not have any confidence in snow days or early releases for Wednesday. We may see a Winter Weather Advisory pop up on Tuesday, but a Winter Storm Watch is almost assuredly out of the question. After school activities may be cancelled on Wednesday, but those decisions will be scattered throughout the region.

The snow and rain ends late Wednesday night, and we will see periodic snow showers on Thursday as the temperatures return to the mid 20s to end the week.

Perhaps the forecast for snow totals will come up throughout the day tomorrow, but don't get your hopes up for any school-shortening decisions by Superintendents this week.

The North American model favors higher snow totals for Wednesday. The Euro is only showing 2.0 inches.

Looking Ahead to December 8-12

It was a good week of winter with our first snow day of the season on Tuesday and our lowest temperature of the season on Friday. Now that we have a snow base and continued cold in the forecast, hopefully we can build on what has started.

In the next week we are looking at a few chances to add to the base. Sunday night we may see a half inch, and then we are looking more intently at a Wednesday/Thursday wintery precipitation event.

Temps will ease a bit this weekend and move closer toward freezing for daily highs. But another cold shot of air--even colder than today's--will move in for Monday. Monday's high will be in the mid teens and Tuesday morning will very cold with temps in the -5 to -10 degree range. We suppose we could see a freeze delay for a school district or two but that seems like a long-shot.

The Euro-AI model is showing a more optimistic snow total for Thursday.

Some kind of frozen precipitation will fall from the sky on Wednesday afternoon, night, and Thursday morning. Models are not showing a lot of snow--only between 2 and 4 inches--and meteorologists are seeing a potential snow to mixed precipitation set-up. Temps will hover around freezing so wet snow and/or sleet and freezing rain are possibilities depending on your elevation.

If anything is going to happen on Thursday, then delays would be the more likely outcome. As of today it's too messy and variable for us to give you anything definitive other than a small chance for delays.

Have a great weekend, and thanks for supporting the staff at Greylock Snow Day.

1st Storm Is In The Books

A clean sweep for snow days for Berkshire County today! We definitely were cautious with the Confidence Meter, but most in our office had a good feeling about this first storm. The slightly late timing and the concern about mixed precipitation in South County were the key reasons we did not ramp up the Meter to 100%.

The storm did underperform slightly. We got 4.5" at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. The storm ended up right in the middle between the Euro and the North American (GFS) models. The Euro continues to be just a little more accurate from year to year so we'll continue to feature that model when we are looking at potential snow days.

Observed snow totals as of 9 PM Tuesday.

We are now looking at some kind of disturbance for next Thursday and Friday. The models are not in agreement but it looks like we could see snow anywhere from late Wednesday night to Friday afternoon. It does not look organized like today's storm was, so 1-3" may be our best bet for snow at the end of next week.

Get ready for the cold. Friday morning is going to be brutal--we could see negative numbers--and the high on Friday will barely get into the 20s.

Thanks for reading, and we'll have more info about next week's snow over the weekend.

Cancellations for Tuesday, Dec. 2

Last update: 7:34 AM, Tuesday

A leading edge dusting has fallen, but the heavy stuff is not coming down for a few hours yet. Expect moderate snow to begin between 7 and 8 AM. Heavier snow could fall in the afternoon as some locations will get close to 10 inches. Enjoy your day off from school!

SNOW DAY:

Bement School

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg
Emma Miller

Farmington River

Florida

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

MCLA

McCann

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Rowe Elementary

Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU

First Storm (Dec. 2) Eve

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County for Tuesday. This is the development we were looking for and should ensure that most students in the County have a day off or shortened day of school.

More and more the models are starting to resemble each other. The Euro is still the party-pooper of the group, showing a 3-4" storm for our area. The two North American models--the short-term NAM and the longer term GFS--as well as the Euro's AI-enhanced model are all showing 6+ inches of snow.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

The timing of the start of the storm is the only real negative. The good folks over at NWS Albany are saying it will start at 7 AM for all of Berkshire County. One great positive is it looks like plenty of cold air will be in place. Right now on Monday it may be in the low 30s where you live, but the mercury will steadily drop into the mid and low 20s as we move toward the morning commute hours and the onset of the snow.

In terms of the calculus of the superintendents, they are in a slightly tough spot. You never want to call the first snow day of a season and have it be a bust. But then again, you don't want to send children to school only to have them on buses when the storm really starts to ramp up in the early afternoon. And the early release is problematic for families. Some of those problems can be mitigated by calling it the night before, but there's still risk that 2-3 inches of snow will be on the ground at the time of the early release. You can see that the easiest decision is to just call the day off and hope we don't have too many storms later this winter.

We're adjusting the Confidence Meter higher as a result of the upgrade to the Warning. We'll likely post again this evening in the hope that some Superintendents phone in the snow day this evening.